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Tuesday, July 15, 2014 10:22 AM

Triple Whammy for German Economy

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I have a guest post this morning from Saxo Bank chief economist Steen Jakobsen regarding the slowing German economy. Steen says the German economy is decelerating too quick for comfort and faces a triple whammy from Asian rebalancing, the US economy, and a bad energy policy.

From Steen Jakobsen

Germany May Have Won the World Cup, but Its Economy is Cooling Fast

We need to congratulate Germany on its World Cup win. It was a victory for organisation and science, but unfortunately the Germany economy is slowing fast — and too fast for comfort when we look at Eurozone GDP.

I have long argued this slowdown was coming based on Asia rebalancing (reducing imports of capital goods and turning more domestically-based); Bad energy policy (being dependent on Putin and his Russian gas rather than German nuclear energy — not exactly perfect substitution); A new minimum wage and a coalition government that has either reversed or halted a lot of the progress that had been made in the labour market.

Unlike its football team, Germany became complacent and the switch to a reliance on green energy is now at risk as growth collapses.

A few charts to illustrate my old argument ...

ZEW Expectations

Industrial Production


This confirms that we are destined for new lows in yields in core Europe, something I have constantly said since Q4-2013. The world is barely producing growth with zero interest rates — how can ANYONE believe rates will go higher? Beats me!

Therefore: Long IEF, Bund futures and 10-year US Treasury notes.

Above courtesy of Steen Jakobsen

Europe is not prepared for a German slowdown, but it is coming.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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