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Thursday, September 18, 2014 11:45 PM

Lesson of the Day: The Political Class Always Wins

With a ramp up in fearmongering led by financial institutions and every UK political party, the preliminary votes indicate Scottish Anti-Independence Campaign Poised for Victory in Vote.

With 26 of Scotland’s 32 local authorities declared, the Better Together camp backed by Prime Minister David Cameron and the main U.K. parties had garnered 54 percent of the vote, while the “yes” campaign led by Scottish National Party leader Alex Salmond had 46 percent.

“It does look like we have secured a ‘no’ vote,” Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander, a Liberal Democrat and the most senior Scot in the U.K. government, told Sky News as the first results trickled in. “But a ‘no’ vote is also for change, it’s our responsibility to get on with that.”
Looking Ahead

Via email, Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank writes ...
We have Quebec like situation in Scotland now – The independence talk is gone for now but the next item on the agenda politically is UK referendum next year where the independence and anti-EU vote will continue to play a role. 2017 is the big year, if the promised EU votes takes place……

EU did not do themselves any favors by ruling Scotland out of EU even before the election results was known. Scots, like danes, don’t take outside pressure easy especially from something like the EU.

The main take away from macro perspective is the move towards very nationalistic and domestic driven political agendas. The EU and global agendas now plays 3rd violin as lack of growth and reforms become real issue.

The real economy is at least politically catching up to the artificial markets, so while the markets celebrate RISK ON again this morning, the politicians around Europe is taking notes: Change or lose your job! Just ask the Labor party in the UK who almost lost their ability to get back into government as 30 MP’s would have been lost overnight with a Yes.

Steen Jakobsen
Lesson Learned

For the political class, this vote was far too close for comfort. Next time, there won't be a vote.

In the case of Spain, a Catalan vote for independence scheduled later this year will simply be declared illegal. Should the vote for independence fail, the vote would of course be accepted.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

1:17 PM

ECB's Targeted Lending Spree Starts Out As Flop; Modern Monetary Insanity

Following on the "success" of the ECB's LTRO (Long Term Refinance Operation) which did nothing to spur lending and everything to create the biggest sovereign bond bubble the world has ever seen,  ECB president Mario Draghi announced a TLTRO or Targeted LTRO on September 4.

The ECB's intent is to spur lending.

Lending Spree Short of Expectations

Today the Financial Times reports ECB’s Lending Spree Short of Expectations.

The European Central Bank’s first offer of cheap four-year loans has fallen short of expectations, dealing a blow to president Mario Draghi’s hope of sustaining the eurozone’s ailing economy by expanding the central bank’s balance sheet.

Banks borrowed €82.6bn through the first of the ECB’s Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations, or TLTROs, one of policy makers’ big ideas to revive the currency area’s recovery. A poll by Bloomberg earlier this week showed economists, on average, expected banks to bid for €174bn of loans from a maximum of €400bn.

Analysts said the disappointing take-up would pile pressure on the ECB to embark on large-scale government bond buying, or quantitative easing, before the end of this year. With inflation as low as 0.4 per cent in the year to August, the central bank is struggling to hit its inflation target of just below 2 per cent.

The TLTROs allow banks to borrow at a rate just above the ECB’s main refinancing rate of 0.05 per cent until late 2018 so long as they meet targets for lending to businesses. If they miss the targets, they must pay the funds back in 2016.

The ECB will conduct another seven auctions, with the next TLTRO taking place in December. The central bank hopes the auctions, through which it will lend a maximum of €1tn over the next three years, will boost inflation and restart the region’s flagging economic recovery by spurring lending to smaller businesses.
Why TLTRO Won't Spur Lending

Banks may eventually take the money. Why not? The only penalty is they have to pay it back in 2016 if they don't lend it. But taking money, and lending (more than one would have anyway), are two different things. For now, banks did not even take a big bite at the money.

For an explanations as to why TLTRO will not spur lending, please see ECB Pulls Out Bazooka, Cuts Rates, Buys Assets; Will this Stimulate Lending?

Modern Monetary Insanity

Central banks ought to be worried about asset bubbles and asset deflation, not price deflation on ordinary consumer goods. Nonetheless, central banks target prices even though they cannot push price inflation where they want it! 

Asset deflation (more precisely loans that cannot be paid back as asset prices fall)  not price deflation is what will cripple banks. Yet by targeting consumer prices with monetary inflation, they bring upon asset inflation then asset deflation which is precisely what they should seek to avoid.

From this perspective, the ECB is hell-bent on making the problem worse. It's modern monetary insanity.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

1:26 AM

"Precarious" Global Economy

It's not often I agree with the IMF on anything, but this time I do. The Global Recovery is Precarious, says International Monetary Fund.

The International Monetary Fund has warned that the global recovery is on precarious footing, as rising geopolitical tensions and the prospect of tighter monetary policy in the US risk dampening the outlook for global growth.

In a document prepared ahead of this week’s G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Australia, the IMF said that growth in the first half of this year was weaker than it had predicted in April. The Fund signalled it is likely to cut its next batch of forecasts which will be released in October.

The Fund’s assessment is the latest sign that mounting tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East have worsened the prospects for the global economy.
Headline Agreement

I need to pause right there, with the obvious, because the IMF can see no further than what has already transpired.

“While the recovery is projected to regain some strength in the reminder of 2014 and 2015, it would be weaker than foreseen in the spring,” the IMF said.

The Fund expects growth to accelerate in advanced economies, with the US and the UK enjoying the strongest rebound. However, the outlook for the eurozone and Japan is more uncertain, as inflation remains below central bank targets.

Acceleration of Growth in Advanced Economies?

I strongly disagree. Germany is on "precarious" footing to say the least, and prospects for the US with a declining global economy are not so bright either.

While I agree with the headline, I disagree with the details as well as how we got here and what to do about things.

But yes, things are precarious, and I suspect, about ready to go over the cliff.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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