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Thursday, August 29, 2013 10:51 AM

Reflections on Peak Oil, India, Asia, and Global Growth; What's the Mathematical Outcome?

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In response to Currency Lessons: Think a Sinking Currency is Always Good For Manufacturers? my friend "BC" pinged me with a few comments.

  1. India has a trade deficit of 10% of GDP.
  2. 70% of India electricity generation is from fossil fuels.
  3. 100% of India oil consumption is imported.
  4. 20% of India natural gas consumption is imported.
  5. India's Domestic crude oil and natural gas proven reserves are equivalent to 4-5 and 11-12 years of consumption at the 10-yr. trend rate.
  6. India is a disaster of national and regional instability in the making and not far behind Turkey and MENA [Middle East and North Africa].
  7. The ongoing economic decline or collapse and social disintegration in MENA, Turkey, Pakistan, Indonesia, India, and parts of China, will make the economic, social, and political landscape increasingly difficult, if not impossible, for most of us.

What's the Mathematical Outcome?

India wants to maintain 6% growth. China wants to maintain 7.5% growth. The US wants to maintain growth. Europe desperately wants to resume growth. Every country on the planet wants to increase exports relative to imports.

Ignoring Turkey, Indonesia, Pakistan, Africa, and the Mideast, the wants and needs of India, China, Europe and the US are mathematically impossible. That every country on the planet wants to increase exports relative to imports is mathematically impossible in and of itself.

History suggests that war is the inevitable outcome of such tensions, and clearly tensions are building.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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