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Thursday, May 02, 2013 12:49 PM

Global Manufacturing Stagnates; Global Recession Will Follow

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The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI shows Global manufacturing growth slows to near-stagnation.

At 50.5 in April, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ – a composite index* produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – signalled expansion for the fourth straight month. The rate of expansion decelerated slightly during April, meaning that growth so far in 2013 has remained, at best, only marginal.

Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam were the only nations to report a faster rate of improvement in operating conditions during April. Europe remained the main drag on the global aggregate, with the euro area contracting at the sharpest pace in the year-to-date and the UK stagnating.

The US PMI fell sharply to signal the slowest growth for six months. There was further stagnation in neighbouring Canada, while Mexico expanded at the weakest pace in 20 months in Mexico. Growth of manufacturing also slowed to near-stagnation in China, Russia, India and Brazil.
Global PMI April vs. March

Every facet of global manufacturing is slowing and global growth will follow. A global recession is certainly baked in the cake, if indeed a recession is not already in progress.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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