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Thursday, June 14, 2012 3:34 AM

Any Rabbits Left in the Hat?

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Inquiring minds are poring over the ESM Treaty to see how it is supposed to work in theory, assuming it will be ratified by counties with the required 90% of EMU voting rights.

Given that Spain is supposed to get €100 billion from the ESM, some might be surprised to learn ESM Still Not Ratified by Germany, Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Slovakia, Netherlands

Finland is missing from the above group. Finland has signed but not yet ratified the treaty and May Ask for Collateral for Spanish Banking Bailout

Political football is holding up treaty ratification in Germany, with the opposition demanding a Financial Transaction Tax in return for passage.

Assuming the treaty passes, please turn your attention to Article 41.

ARTICLE 41 ... payment of paid-in shares of the amount initially subscribed by each ESM Member shall be made in five annual instalments of 20 % each of the total amount. The first instalment shall be paid by each ESM Member within fifteen days of the date of entry into force of this Treaty. The remaining four instalments shall each be payable on the first, second, third and fourth anniversary of the payment date of the first instalment.

Reader Brett who pointed out that provision writes ...

The ESM total budget for 5 years is 700 billion euros. That means for 2012 the ESM will be able to contribute 140 billion euros. I have shown the breakdown by country (listed in Annex II) and amended another column to show their first contribution.

Spain is clearly in no position to assist their own banks so we can forget about their contribution. We can also forget about contributions from Greece for obvious reasons, and Portugal whose sovereign debt is rated as junk status by S&P.
Capital Contribution Analysis

ESM MemberCapital subscription (EUR)2012 Contribution (20%)
Kingdom of Belgium€ 24,339,700,000.00 € 4,867,940,000
Federal Republic of Germany€ 190,024,800,000.00 € 38,004,960,000
Republic of Estonia€ 1,302,000,000.00 € 260,400,000
Ireland€ 11,145,400,000.00 € 2,229,080,000
Hellenic Republic€ 19,716,900,000.00 € 3,943,380,000
Kingdom of Spain€ 83,325,900,000.00 € 16,665,180,000
French Republic€ 142,701,300,000.00 € 28,540,260,000
Italian Republic€ 125,395,900,000.00 € 25,079,180,000
Republic of Cyprus€ 1,373,400,000.00 € 274,680,000
Grand Duchy of Luxembourg€ 1,752,800,000.00 € 350,560,000
Malta€ 511,700,000.00 € 102,340,000
Kingdom of the Netherlands€ 40,019,000,000.00 € 8,003,800,000
Republic of Austria€ 19,483,800,000.00 € 3,896,760,000
Portuguese Republic€ 17,564,400,000.00 € 3,512,880,000
Republic of Slovenia€ 2,993,200,000.00 € 598,640,000
Slovak Republic€ 5,768,000,000.00 € 1,153,600,000
Republic of Finland€ 12,581,800,000.00 € 2,516,360,000
Total€ 700,000,000,000.00 € 140,000,000,000
Less Spain
Total Less Spain
€ 123,334,820,000
Less Greece
Total Less Spain + Greece
€ 119,391,440,000
Less Portugal
Total Less Spain + Greece + Portugal
€ 115,878,560,000

Subtract Italy crippled with a 120% debt to GDP ratio and Borrowing money at 4-5% to Lend to Spain at 3% and you are under the €100 billion mark.

Even including Italy, the fund for 2012 is nearly all spent.

What happens if Spain needs €350 billion as per analysis from JPMorgan?
What Happens if Italy needs a bailout?

Are there any rabbits left in the hat?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
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