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Friday, July 08, 2011 10:03 AM

Payroll Stunner: Unmitigated Disaster, US Payrolls Rise 18,000; Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Rises to 9.2%; Grim Details

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I will have a full report later the morning but in the meantime, here are a few grim details of Friday's jobs report.

  • US Payrolls +18,000
  • Last Month Quietly Revised Lower to +25,000 from +54,000
  • US Unemployment Unexpectedly Rises +.1 to 9.2% Despite Drop in Participation Rate
  • Since March, Number of Unemployed Rises by 545,000
  • Household Survey Number Unemployed Up 173,000
  • Household Survey Number of Employed Down 445,000
  • Average Weekly Workweek Drops by .1 Hours
  • Average Manufacturing Hours Drops by .3 Hours
  • Average Private Hourly Earnings Decrease 1 Cent

Take The Way Under

Two days ago, in "Hamster Wheel Economy" I said ...
Going Nowhere Fast

Despite the alleged "improvement" in jobs, TrimTabs describes the economy as a "Hamster Wheel Economy" -- the hamster runs faster and faster in its wheel but goes nowhere.

Don't Count on a Big Rebound

The "rebound" in employment will only cheer the markets if there is a significant rebound. Last month the BLS report was +54,000 jobs.

I except to see a rebound above that anemic total. However, I will take the "way under" line on Trimtabs +171,000 jobs estimate for Friday's jobs report. Anything under +125,000 and the unemployment rate is likely to tick up, perhaps significantly.
It looks like the "way under" was correct. Indeed, the way, way, way under was correct.

Proving once again what an optimist I am, I thought we would beat last month's total. We could not even beat last month's revised lower total.

My usual report will follow shortly.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
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