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Wednesday, December 31, 2008 5:11 AM

Case Shiller and CAR Analysis December 2008 Release

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California Association of Realtors C.A.R. Data

The following chart is from my friend "TC" who has been monitoring California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) and DQNews data. C.A.R. data contains resale single family residences and new homes. DQNews data contains resale single family residences and new homes.

Median nominal prices in CA are now down 52% according to CAR and 46% according to DQNews - and those declines are in 18-19 months!

Case-Shiller is a more accurate way of looking at home prices than median prices. Case-Shiller data follows.

Case Shiller December Release

Inquiring minds are considering the Case Shiller Home Price Release for December 2008.

New York, December 30, 2008 – Data through October 2008, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, with 14 of the 20 metro areas showing record rates of annual decline and 14 now reporting declines in excess of 10% versus October 2007.

The chart below depicts the annual returns of the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. Following the lead of the 14 metro areas described above, the 10-City and 20-City Composites set new records, with annual declines of 19.1% and 18.0%, respectively.

“The bear market continues; home prices are back to their March, 2004 levels.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “Both composite indices and 14 of the 20 metro areas are reporting new record rates of decline.

As of October 2008, the 10-City Composite is down 25.0% from its mid-2006 peak, and the 20-City Composite is down 23.4%. In October, we also saw three new markets enter the ‘double-digit’ club. Atlanta, Seattle and Portland are reporting annual rates of decline of 10.5%, 10.2% and 10.1%, respectively.

click on chart for sharper image

Case-Shiller Declines Since Peak

The following charts were produced by my friend "TC" who has been monitoring Case-Shiller Data. Although individual cities topped at varying times, the top-10 and top-20 city composites peaked in a June-July 2006 timeframe.

Case-Shiller Declines Since Peak Current Data

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Case-Shiller Declines Since Peak Futures Data

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"TC" writes:
With regards to today's release of the Case-Shiller index it's more of the same. Prices continue to head south as all 20 metros tracked by CS moved lower in Oct 2008.

Prices have now declined by 10% or for all but 3 metros and only Charlotte and Dallas have escaped any meaningful decline. Lastly, the futures continue to indicate a Fall 2010/Spring 2011 rebound; although this needs to be viewed skeptically as the volume is razor thin.
Thanks "TC"

With unemployment poised to rise in 2009 it is extremely unlikely that housing bottoms anytime soon.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
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