4th Quarter GDPNow Forecast Sinks to +0.6 Percent; Fed Futures Target 1 Hike in 2016; Disastrous Data Recap
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I have never seen the Atlanta Fed take as long to post a scheduled update to their GDP Forecast as they did today. Their forecast came out late this afternoon, but it did beat the market close.
Latest forecast — January 15, 2016
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 0.6 percent on January 15, down from 0.8 percent on January 8. The forecast for fourth quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 2.0 percent to 1.7 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the industrial production release from the Federal Reserve.
5 Disastrous Economic Reports From Today
- Inventory to Sales: Manufacturing Inventories Decline But Inventory-to-Sales Ratio Doesn't Budge; Another Recessionary Looking Chart
- Producer Prices: Producer Prices Decline More Than Expected, Services Disappoint; Oil Approaches $29
- Industrial Production: Industrial Production Numbers and Revisions Shockingly Bad; Autos Have Peaked
- Empire State Manufacturing: Empire State Manufacturing Index Posts Horrific -19.37, Lowest Reading Since April 2009
- Retail Sales: December Retail Sales Negative; Other Economic Data Horrid
That's likely the worst set of economic reports since the last recession.
Fed Futures Target 1 Hike in 2016
Following today's set of horrific reports, odds of rate hikes in 2016 dropped substantially. Fed Fund Futures analysis show the March hike odds shrank all the way to 31% from 55% last month.
The first hike is now expected in July, but barely. And looking all the way out to December, the futures still suggest only one hike.
Note the significant 33.9% chance of no more hikes for the entire year!
Nonetheless, a parade of Fed governors attempted to talk up the strength of the economy over the past few days, even today.
The market laughed in their face.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock