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Sunday, December 13, 2015 2:22 PM

Le Pen Fizzles in Second Round

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French exit polls show Marine Le Pen's National Front Behind in Local Elections, so much so that Le Pen may not even win her own region.

I had expected she would win 2-4 French regions in the second round of voting. It appears now she may win none, despite winning 6 of 13 regions in the first round. In the first round of voting, FN topped 40% of the vote in two regions, nearly winning those regions outright.

In French regional elections, any candidate with 10% of the vote or more goes on to round two, unless someone gets more than 50% in the first round.

Five Things Doomed Le Pen

  1. When socialists came in third place in the first round of elections, they dropped out of the race.
  2. A massive fear-mongering campaign ensued when Manuel Valls, the French Prime Minister Warned of "Civil War" if Le Pen Won.
  3. Socialists openly campaigned for candidates in the Republican party, the party of former president Nicholas Sarkozy.
  4. Disenfranchised socialists turned out heavily, apparently heeding the warnings of Valls, Hollande, and Sarkozy.
  5. Voter turnout is estimated to be 59% in the second round vs. 50% in the first.

There are 13 regions in France. Le Pen won 6 in the first round, Sarkozy's center-right Republicans won 4, and Hollande's socialists just 3.

The socialists hold all the regions now, but following these elections Sarkozy's Republicans will hold the vast majority.

These elections represent quite a change, and quite a trouncing of the Socialists, just not what Le Pen envisioned.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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