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Wednesday, September 16, 2015 12:16 AM

Strong Start to Third Quarter GDP?

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In Retail Sales Rise Thanks to Autos; Industrial Production Sinks Thanks to Autos; Last Hurrah for Autos? I highlighted this Bloomberg claim:

"Taken together, July and August point to a very strong start to the third quarter for the consumer."

Later in the afternoon I decide to check. It just so happened the Atlanta Fed updated its GDPNow Model following yesterday's reports.

The Atlanta Fed forecast reads ...

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 is 1.5 percent on September 15, unchanged from September 3. The nowcast for third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 2.6 percent to 3.2 percent after this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau. This was offset by a decline in the nowcast of growth in real government spending after Friday's Monthly Treasury Statement and a decline in the nowcast of inventories for motor vehicle and parts dealers after this morning's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve.
GDP Now Forecast 

The GDPNow forecast following the retail sales and industrial production numbers is the same as it was on September 3.

As noted above Retail Sales Rise Thanks to Autos; Industrial Production Sinks Thanks to Autos

It was a wash. And 1.5% GDP growth annualized is hardly a strong start.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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