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Friday, April 24, 2015 12:08 PM

Durable Goods Orders Up but Core Capital Goods Negative Again

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Durable goods orders are somewhat of a mixed bag today, but beneath the headline rise, weakness is easy to find.

The Bloomberg Consensus was for a 0.5% rise, and the actual result was a whopping 4% gain due to transportation.

Yet, transportation for last month was revised lower, and excluding transportation durable goods orders shrank.

More importantly, core capital goods orders declined for at least four consecutive months.

Let's dive into the Census Report on Durable Goods for more details. Here is a table of key items I made from the report.

ItemMarFebJanFeb-Mar %ChgJan-Feb % ChgDec-Jan % Chg
Total New Orders240,175230,911234,272 4.0-1.41.9
Ex-Transportation Orders159,917160,174162,227-0.2-1.3-0.9
Ex-Defense Orders228,119222,394224,6522.6-1.02.2
Transportation Orders80,25870,73772,04513.5-1.88.9
Capital Goods Orders89,67385,58886,7234.8-1.37.1
Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders80,21377,50479,2143.5-2.2-0.3
Defense Capital Goods Orders9,4608,0847,509177.7-6.3
Core Capital Goods Orders68,18968,53770,062-0.5-2.2-0.3
Core Capital Goods Shipments69,61169,88969,789-0.40.1-0.6

Line items (except the last line which shows shipments) are new orders, in millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted. Core capital goods exclude defense and aircraft.

Once again this was another weak economic report excluding aircraft orders that have long lead times and are frequently cancelled.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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