Rebels Advance: Near Collapse of Ukraine Positions Near Lugansk; The Big One

In Graves Waiting For Bodies: Major War Escalation in Ukraine; In 5 Weeks Ukraine Out of Money I stated ...

Reader Jacob Dreizin, a US citizen who speaks Russian and read Ukrainian informs me that "The battle for the Donetsk airport is over. The rebels expelled Ukraine's most elite units from their last redoubts in the new terminal building."

That statement was immediately challenged. For example, Reuters reported Sunday afternoon that Ukrainian troops retake most of Donetsk airport from rebels.

Then that statement was challenged. Yahoo!News reported Ukraine, Rebels Both Claim to Control Donetsk Airport.

Meanwhile Fox News reported Ukraine Rebels Claim They Control Donetsk Airport After Heavy Fighting.

First Casualty of War

As they say, the first casualty of war is the truth. Disinformation is everywhere. So whom to believe?

I place faith in reports I get from reader Jacob Dreisin, Colonel Cassad, and others who have been right far more often than mainstream media. Colonel Cassad has called this better than Jane's Defense.

See my August 26, report Jane's Defense vs. Colonel Cassad: Someone Seriously Wrong
in which Jane's Defense wrote "Ukrainian Military Moves to Endgame".

Brief synopsis: Jane was seriously wrong.

Not everything Dreisin says is 100% accurate. But the same can be said about me. Until proven otherwise, I trust my sources, and they have some significant news.

Ukraine Airport Synopsis

Most of my reports come from Dreizin, so let's tune in. Dreisin writes ...

Ukrainian forces have been cleared from every single building and built-up area within the airport complex. They may be still holding on to some of the open area at the edges. Reports of Kiev being in control of the airport is total spin. U.S. media passes along whatever Kiev's mouthpieces say.

The hero defenders of the airport, known as "cyborgs" in the Ukrainian press for their supposedly superhuman characteristics, were all either killed or retreated several days ago from the new terminal building.

All Ukrainian counterattacks have failed with heavy losses. The rebels have also largely taken the town of Peski north of the airport. This is (was) a major base for Ukrainian artillery hitting Donetsk. I will let you know when the entire town is fully under control of the rebels.

The rebels are also reportedly preparing to storm the town of Adveevka, near the airport. It's another major artillery base.

May Be "The Big One"

The above is from yesterday. Today Jacob says ...

Rebel chatter reports near-collapse of Ukrainian positions all along the front north/northwest of Lugansk city. This may be the big one that we've anticipated. It is more slow-motion, step-by-step than what happened in August, but it's happening nonetheless.

But first...

Another (minor) Ukrainian counterattack against the airport grounds failed today. There is footage available of some of the dead and prisoners. Two of the prisoners claimed on camera that they were told that the new terminal building was in Ukrainian hands, and that they were initially just sent to pick up wounded. Then after they set out, they were told of their real mission. Amazing, just amazing.

Back to the rebel advance...

Rebel forces are making considerable progress northeast of Pervomaisk (northwest of Lugansk) in a possible armored breakthrough to Lisichansk far to the north, which they abandoned in early August.

Rebels are also moving from the Pervomaisk direction northeast to Krymskoe. Large Ukrainian forces in the area are at risk of being surrounded. Will keep you posted.

Also, fighting is still ongoing in Peski north of the airport. Ukrainians have taken heavy losses there and it's not looking good for them.

Assault on Lisichansk and Severodonetsk

Moments ago I asked Jacob if I transcribed Forced Conscription: Ukraine to Mobilize 200,000 Armed Forces properly. He responded "yes". He also added ...

A very reliable rebel source claims Kiev expects an assault against Lisichansk and Severodonetsk imminently. This would be an advance by the rebels of something like 30-40 kilometers through many thousands of Ukrainian forces. Importantly, they would have to cover their flanks which probably means advancing northeast all the way from Krymskoe to the Russian border.

This is potentially huge. Also there is much talk of an imminent move against Mariupol, though this could be a feint for a dash further west, who knows.

This All Ties In

This all ties in with Ukraine to Mobilize 200,000 Armed Forces; Hyperinflation on the Way?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com