Worst Election Performance by Sitting President's Party Since Truman; Republicans Take Senate, Increase Lead in House and Governorships

I watched the returns all evening from Start to finish, not that anything was much in doubt. I expected the Republicans would finish stronger than the polls suggested, and they did by a huge margin.

Senate Results

• Republicans picked up at least 7 Senate seats with Alaska and Louisiana yet to come. The final tally will likely be +9, giving Alaska and Louisiana to the Republicans, and Virgina (undecided as I type) to the Democrats.
• Republicans won a Senate seat in North Carolina with odds of that happening listed at 25%.
• So-called close votes in Iowa, Kansas, and Colorado were not that close at all.

It could have been much worse.

In Virginia, Republican Ed Gillespie nearly pulled off an amazing victory over Democrat Mark Warner.

In New Hampshire, Republican Scott Brown nearly pulled off a huge upset over Jeanne Shaheen.

Governors

• In Illinois, Governor Quinn held a tiny but consistent lead in the polls over challenger Bruce Rauner. The election was not that close even though Rauner had a lot of baggage.
• In Maryland, Republican Larry Hogan beat Democrat Anthony Browns in a shocking upset.
• In Massachusetts, Republican Charlie Baker upset Martha Coakley. The last serving Republican governor in Massachusetts was Mitt Romney, elected in 2002.
• In Florida, Republican Rick Scott defeated Republican-turned-Democrat Charlie Crist in a very close race.
• In Wisconsin, Republican Scott Walker has the distinction of winning his third election in four years, counting a recall. 
• GOP Pickups: Illinois, Maryland, Arkansas, Massachusetts
• Democrats scored a pickup in Pennsylvania

The Gubernatorial score as I type is 31-15 and will likely get worse for Democrats.

House

• Republicans picked up at least 10 seats. 
• Democrats had 257 House seats following the 2008 election. They lost seats in every election since then. 
• Republicans will end up with something like 246 House seats following this election. There are 435 seats so the math will be something like  246-189 in favor or Republicans. 
• Under Obama, Democrats stand to lose at least 60 seats in total, the "biggest loss by a president's party since Harry Truman", said CNN.

What's It Mean?

The key question is "what does it all mean?"

The short answer is this vote is an anti-Obama vote as much as anything else.

I watched Senator Ted Cruz on CNN Tuesday evening. Wolf Blitzer asked Cruz twice if he would back Mitch McConnell as majority leader. Cruz twice refused to answer.

Expect Cruz to mount a challenge to McConnell for Senate majority leader.

Cruz told Blitzer we need "much more legislation". Good grief. How about dismantling rules and regulations? And how about dropping no-win divisive issues like abortion and focusing on things the country needs?

Without a doubt Hillary will distance herself from president Obama further and further. She will also do everything she can to get the majority of female votes.

Ron Paul Chimes In

On Tuesday Ron Paul Tweeted "Republican control of the Senate = expanded neocon wars in Syria and Iraq. Boots on the ground are coming!"

Senator Rand Paul is going to have to take a stand, and hopefully the right one. You cannot disenfranchise 65% of the women in the country and expect to get elected.

If Republicans nominate another Neanderthal determined to wage more wars while taking away freedom of choice, expect to see Hillary in the White House in 2016.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com