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Thursday, September 25, 2014 12:03 PM

Housing Early Warning Stress Indicator On Rise

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A chart in the latest Black Knight Mortgage Monitor Release caught my eye.

For five months, the number of properties and the percentage of properties 30-days delinquent has been on the rise (arrows added).

click on chart for sharper image

Key Indicators

  • The mortgage delinquency rate jumped nearly 5% in August, reaching its highest point since February.
  • The year-over-year change in 30-day delinquencies is a negative 4.8%. Another month like August would nearly reverse the year-over-year downtrend in delinquencies.
  • The inventory of  30-day delinquent homes rose by 146,000. Another month like August would reverse the year-over-year change.
  • 90-day delinquencies do not show the same ominous trend as 3-day delinquencies, but 90-day delinquencies first require 30-day delinquency then 60-day delinquency.

So far, the 90-day stats have not rolled over, but with the 30-day uptrend this long, it likely will.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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