Multi-Pronged Attack on Donetsk Rebels Likely Within Days

Donetsk is surrounded and rebels expect a major coordinated attack within days.

Here is a map of major military operations by both sides from August 1 to August 10.



click on map for sharper image

Legend

• Blue jets inside red circles are locations where Ukrainian military planes are confirmed to have crashed after being shot down. (This is only for the period of the map, August 1-10.
• Blue jets shooting into blue circles are locations of Ukrainian air raids, again just for the period August 1-10.
• Blue circles with "X" inside them are Ukrainian artillery strikes.
• Red circles with "X" inside them are rebel artillery strikes.
• Red lines with arrows are rebel advances
• Blue lines with arrows are Ukrainian advances
• Solid red lines (no arrow tips) are rebel defense lines

The original map is in Russian. I asked reader Jacob Dreizin, a US citizen who speaks Russian and reads Ukrainian, to put the cities and captions in English.

The edited map above is what you see above. Click on first link for the original.

Jacob writes ...

Don't be fooled by the appearance of the site. This is a very well-informed, pro-rebel news and analysis site. You won't find any maps like this in American sources. The rebel-held area is in pink.

As you can see, the Ukrainians have made a very significant dent in the rebel south-center even as the encircled Ukrainian "cauldron" directly to the east was liquidated.

As you can also see, the city of Donetsk is hard-pressed. According to all rebel sources, a full multi-pronged advance on Donetsk is very likely to commence within the next few days.

I saw a headline about Kiev telling civilians to get out of the city. Good luck with that. Donetsk has almost a million residents. And the rebels have indicated that they finally have resources for a counterattack.

Here are some possible weapons Ukraine may use to take Donetsk:

• "Uragan"
• "Smerch"
• "Tyulpan." 

As you can see, there are fates worse than "Grad".

In a follow-up just a bit ago Jacob commented "Two more Ukrainian combat detachments have been surrounded in the last 3 days or so, since the end of the period represented in that map. Understand that the rebel area functions as an amoeba that is capable of swallowing and liquidating Ukrainian units."

If the rebels can mount a counter-attack it will be because of equipment captured and men freed up from  the Southern cauldron. Regardless, an all-out surge on Donetsk will take many lives, and destroy the property of thousands. Scars will last for decades.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com