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Thursday, May 29, 2014 11:08 AM


BLS Employment Projections Through 2022: How Many Jobs Require a College Degree?


Inquiring minds are taking a look at the BLS Occupation Forecast Through 2022.

Occupations with the Most Job Growth, 2012 and Projected 2022 (Numbers in Thousands)
2012 National Employment Matrix Title CodeEmploymentChange, 2012-22Median annual wage, 2012
20122022NumberPercent
Total, All Occupations00-0000145,355.8160,983.715,628.010.8$34,750
Personal care aides39-90211,190.61,771.4580.848.819,910
Registered nurses29-11412,711.53,238.4526.819.465,470
Retail salespersons41-20314,447.04,881.7434.79.821,110
Home health aides31-1011875.11,299.3424.248.520,820
Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food35-30212,969.33,391.2421.914.218,260
Nursing assistants31-10141,479.81,792.0312.221.124,420
Secretaries and administrative assistants, except legal, medical, and executive43-60142,324.42,632.3307.813.232,410
Customer service representatives43-40512,362.82,661.4298.712.630,580
Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners37-20112,324.02,604.0280.012.122,320
Construction laborers47-20611,071.11,331.0259.824.329,990
General and operations managers11-10211,972.72,216.8244.112.495,440
Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand53-70622,197.32,439.2241.911.023,890
Carpenters47-2031901.21,119.4218.224.239,940
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks43-30311,799.82,004.5204.611.435,170
Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers53-30321,701.51,894.1192.611.338,200
Medical secretaries43-6013525.6714.9189.236.031,350
Childcare workers39-90111,312.71,496.8184.114.019,510
Office clerks, general43-90612,983.53,167.6184.16.227,470
Maids and housekeeping cleaners37-20121,434.61,618.0183.412.819,570
Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses29-2061738.4921.3182.924.841,540
First-line supervisors of office and administrative support workers43-10111,418.11,589.6171.512.149,330
Elementary school teachers, except special education25-20211,361.21,529.1167.912.353,400
Accountants and auditors13-20111,275.41,442.2166.713.163,550
Medical assistants31-9092560.8723.7162.929.029,370
Cooks, restaurant35-20141,024.11,174.2150.114.722,030
Software developers, applications15-1132613.0752.9139.922.890,060
Landscaping and groundskeeping workers37-30111,124.91,264.0139.212.423,570
Receptionists and information clerks43-41711,006.71,142.6135.913.525,990
Management analysts13-1111718.7852.5133.818.678,600
Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products41-40121,480.71,612.8132.08.954,230

The above table is by the BLS. In the following table, I stripped out all the occupations that I believe should not realistically require a college degree. Here are the results.

Degree Requiring Occupations with the Most Job Growth, 2012 and Projected 2022 (Numbers in Thousands)
2012 National Employment Matrix Title CodeEmploymentChange, 2012-22Median annual wage, 2012
20122022NumberPercent
Total, Degree Requiring Occupations17,500.320,231.02,730.715.6
Registered nurses29-11412,711.53,238.4526.819.465,470
Secretaries and administrative assistants, except legal, medical, and executive43-60142,324.42,632.3307.813.232,410
General and operations managers11-10211,972.72,216.8244.112.495,440
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks43-30311,799.82,004.5204.611.435,170
Medical secretaries43-6013525.6714.9189.236.031,350
Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses29-2061738.4921.3182.924.841,540
First-line supervisors of office and administrative support workers43-10111,418.11,589.6171.512.149,330
Elementary school teachers, except special education25-20211,361.21,529.1167.912.353,400
Accountants and auditors13-20111,275.41,442.2166.713.163,550
Medical assistants31-9092560.8723.7162.929.029,370
Software developers, applications15-1132613.0752.9139.922.890,060
Management analysts13-1111718.7852.5133.818.678,600
Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products41-40121,480.71,612.8132.08.954,230


Results

Of the projected 15,628,000 jobs that will be filled by 2022, only 2,731,000 of the jobs in the first table should require a college degree.

However, given the emphasis on getting a degree (and brutally overpaying for it), and given the sheer number of people with degrees who are jobless, many employers will only hire those with degrees simply because they have ability to be picky.

There is another gotcha for the unemployed. Other employers do not want overqualified applicants fearing they will leave at the first opportunity.

Thus, applicants need to correctly figure out whether to dumb-down or trump-up their resume to improve their own chances, even though overall chances for higher paying jobs is poor.

Those who don't make good use of their college degree will be stuck competing for low-wage jobs as personal care aids, retail sales clerks, food prep workers, and as various assistants.

Education for Education's Sake

My friend "BC" explains ...
In effect, the US is "educating"/socializing a large share of our young people coming of age to be hopelessly indebted and unemployed or unemployable.

With record debt to wages and GDP, withering costs of "health care", and fully mature and costly urban/suburban/penturban infrastructure build out and associated high fixed costs, a growing majority of millennials simply cannot afford to begin or sustain the urban/suburban, auto-, oil-, and debt-based lives as "consumer units".

And neither will a majority of Boomers be able to sustain their lifestyles into late life. The situation is made worse in that the US economy has not created a net new full-time private sector job per capita in 30-35 years.

Automation of services sector employment now occurring at an accelerating rate will exacerbate conditions for paid employment and purchasing power, especially for women who make up a disproportionately larger share of employment in medical services (80-85%), "education" (80%), gov't (60%), and financial services (60%).

Consequently, women face loss of paid employment as a share of the work force and population on a scale that men have experienced in the goods-producing sector since the 1970s-80s.

The relative payoff to a bachelor's degree peaked in the 1990s and will continue to decline hereafter for the rest of millennials' lifetimes, especially those in the bottom 90% of households who cannot actually afford a post-secondary credential.

Many argue that the jobs lost in the aforementioned sectors will be replaced by even better jobs in the helping, human touch, and other occupations that we cannot predict; but this presupposes, incorrectly in my view, that the loss of tens of millions of jobs will allow an economy that still produces sufficient level and growth of after-tax, real purchasing power, discretionary income, and tax receipts to support what are more often than not public sector or costly private sector services for the top 1-10% .
Education Model Broken

The US education model is fatally broken because the cost of education is far too high. Soaring student debt with no way to pay it back is one consequence.

In turn, high student debt guarantees low family formation rates with kids moving back in with their parents. Here is a shocking chart that shows what I mean.



The above chart was part of my Wine Country Conference II presentation, which will be out shortly.

Note that approximately 12% of women and 17% of men aged 25-34 now live with their parents. The implications on household formation, child raising, and home buying are obvious.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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