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Monday, March 03, 2014 1:26 PM


ISM Rebounds "Stronger than Expected" But for How Long?


The ISM rebounded this month as noted by the February 2014 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February for the ninth consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 57th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

IndexFeb Index Jan IndexPercentage Point ChangeDirectionRate of ChangeTrend in Months
PMI®53.251.31.9GrowingFaster9
New Orders54.551.23.3GrowingFaster9
Production48.254.8-6.6ContractingFrom Growing1
Employment52.352.30GrowingSame8
Supplier Deliveries58.554.34.2SlowingFaster9
Inventories52.5448.5GrowingFrom Contracting1
Customers' Inventories46.5442.5Too LowSlower27
Prices6060.5-0.5IncreasingSlower7
Backlog of Orders52484GrowingFrom Contracting1
Exports53.554.5-1GrowingSlower15
Imports53.553.50GrowingSame13

"Stronger than Expected"

Following the big downward surprise last month, today's release of the ISM Manufacturing report was stronger than expected.

The consensus estimate was 52.0, the rebound was to 53.3.

Last month the expectation was a reading of 56. Instead the ISM Fell to 51.3 With the Largest Decline in New Orders in 4 Years.

No doubt the weather was a factor in some of that plunge. Thus some of the rebound should have been expected. But how much and for how long?

It's clear the global economy is slowing, and the US right along with it. Some will hail this rebound as a sign the US economy is out of the woods. I beg to differ, but time will soon tell. Give it two months.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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