ISM Rebounds "Stronger than Expected" But for How Long?
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The ISM rebounded this month as noted by the February 2014 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February for the ninth consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 57th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.
| Index | Feb Index | Jan Index | Percentage Point Change | Direction | Rate of Change | Trend in Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMI® | 53.2 | 51.3 | 1.9 | Growing | Faster | 9 |
| New Orders | 54.5 | 51.2 | 3.3 | Growing | Faster | 9 |
| Production | 48.2 | 54.8 | -6.6 | Contracting | From Growing | 1 |
| Employment | 52.3 | 52.3 | 0 | Growing | Same | 8 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 58.5 | 54.3 | 4.2 | Slowing | Faster | 9 |
| Inventories | 52.5 | 44 | 8.5 | Growing | From Contracting | 1 |
| Customers' Inventories | 46.5 | 44 | 2.5 | Too Low | Slower | 27 |
| Prices | 60 | 60.5 | -0.5 | Increasing | Slower | 7 |
| Backlog of Orders | 52 | 48 | 4 | Growing | From Contracting | 1 |
| Exports | 53.5 | 54.5 | -1 | Growing | Slower | 15 |
| Imports | 53.5 | 53.5 | 0 | Growing | Same | 13 |
"Stronger than Expected"
Following the big downward surprise last month, today's release of the ISM Manufacturing report was stronger than expected.
The consensus estimate was 52.0, the rebound was to 53.3.
Last month the expectation was a reading of 56. Instead the ISM Fell to 51.3 With the Largest Decline in New Orders in 4 Years.
No doubt the weather was a factor in some of that plunge. Thus some of the rebound should have been expected. But how much and for how long?
It's clear the global economy is slowing, and the US right along with it. Some will hail this rebound as a sign the US economy is out of the woods. I beg to differ, but time will soon tell. Give it two months.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
