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Friday, February 07, 2014 1:22 PM


Ominous Looking Picture in Healthcare and Education Jobs


Month in, month out, recession or not, there has been a strong uptick in the number of healthcare and education jobs. Until now. A few charts will show what I mean.

Education and Health Services Employment 1990-Present



It's hard to tell much from that picture other than things look very rosy. Let's have a look in percentage terms.

Education and Health Services Employment Percent Change



Now let's hone in on the past year.

Education and Health Services Employment 2013-Present



No Growth!

Education and Health Services Employment Monthly Change in Thousands



The chart appears as if there were several instances of negative numbers in 2003, but a download of the actual data shows the only other negative number in the entire series of data dating back to 1990 occurred in 2003-07-01.

I strongly suspect 2003 was affected by a number of teachers strikes. I could find examples in the Chicago area and in Washington State. I bet there were others. Here is a link regarding Washington: School Board Sues to End Teacher Strike.

Month-to-Month Table (in Thousands)

Date Change From Previous Month
1990-01-01#N/A
1990-02-0136.3
1990-03-0141.9
1990-04-0132.6
1990-05-0137.4
1990-06-0140.1
1990-07-0132.5
1990-08-0134.3
1990-09-0132.6
1990-10-0131.7
1990-11-0128.6
1990-12-0135.0
1991-01-0144.6
1991-02-0130.6
1991-03-0132.9
1991-04-0134.0
1991-05-0120.5
1991-06-0145.6
1991-07-0128.8
1991-08-0139.7
1991-09-0132.9
1991-10-0129.8
1991-11-0125.3
1991-12-0137.0
1992-01-0131.7
1992-02-0121.2
1992-03-0120.3
1992-04-0122.4
1992-05-0123.5
1992-06-0125.2
1992-07-0126.6
1992-08-0116.7
1992-09-0120.8
1992-10-0130.4
1992-11-0133.1
1992-12-0123.7
1993-01-0125.8
1993-02-0126.4
1993-03-0114.9
1993-04-0130.2
1993-05-0133.7
1993-06-0123.9
1993-07-0120.0
1993-08-0123.2
1993-09-0131.0
1993-10-0122.5
1993-11-0116.1
1993-12-0116.1
1994-01-0121.7
1994-02-0115.7
1994-03-0133.2
1994-04-0127.8
1994-05-0121.1
1994-06-0121.4
1994-07-0129.0
1994-08-0125.6
1994-09-0120.0
1994-10-0120.2
1994-11-0117.4
1994-12-0126.4
1995-01-0120.4
1995-02-0129.6
1995-03-0127.3
1995-04-0117.9
1995-05-0113.7
1995-06-0129.7
1995-07-0121.5
1995-08-0128.4
1995-09-0124.6
1995-10-0120.1
1995-11-0128.3
1995-12-0126.5
1996-01-013.7
1996-02-0139.4
1996-03-0129.2
1996-04-0121.5
1996-05-0125.5
1996-06-0123.9
1996-07-0121.0
1996-08-0118.7
1996-09-0122.7
1996-10-0124.1
1996-11-0125.9
1996-12-0118.3
1997-01-0129.3
1997-02-0117.8
1997-03-0121.9
1997-04-0129.1
1997-05-0126.1
1997-06-017.5
1997-07-0124.7
1997-08-0112.6
1997-09-0115.7
1997-10-0120.8
1997-11-0116.7
1997-12-0126.4
1998-01-014.4
1998-02-0110.4
1998-03-0111.4
1998-04-0112.6
1998-05-0119.4
1998-06-0112.4
1998-07-016.7
1998-08-0112.2
1998-09-0118.7
1998-10-0115.1
1998-11-0110.9
1998-12-0110.2
1999-01-013.4
1999-02-0124.4
1999-03-0114.2
1999-04-0119.7
1999-05-015.4
1999-06-019.5
1999-07-0111.1
1999-08-0113.0
1999-09-015.4
1999-10-0112.9
1999-11-0113.8
1999-12-0111.7
2000-01-0113.1
2000-02-0112.0
2000-03-0110.7
2000-04-018.9
2000-05-0115.0
2000-06-0119.5
2000-07-0128.0
2000-08-0122.1
2000-09-0125.0
2000-10-0117.7
2000-11-0118.4
2000-12-0130.3
2001-01-0136.8
2001-02-0133.7
2001-03-0128.0
2001-04-0127.4
2001-05-0129.7
2001-06-0141.3
2001-07-0138.3
2001-08-0132.5
2001-09-0125.2
2001-10-0128.5
2001-11-0127.1
2001-12-0133.1
2002-01-0131.4
2002-02-0130.1
2002-03-0127.8
2002-04-0124.5
2002-05-0117.9
2002-06-0121.2
2002-07-0120.5
2002-08-0135.3
2002-09-0145.5
2002-10-0128.8
2002-11-0128.6
2002-12-0113.2
2003-01-0125.4
2003-02-0122.9
2003-03-0121.9
2003-04-0130.5
2003-05-0123.2
2003-06-0119.9
2003-07-01-9.0
2003-08-0118.2
2003-09-0113.7
2003-10-0123.0
2003-11-0118.7
2003-12-0127.0
2004-01-0117.5
2004-02-018.8
2004-03-0136.6
2004-04-0130.2
2004-05-0125.2
2004-06-0115.7
2004-07-0115.6
2004-08-0118.8
2004-09-0115.7
2004-10-0131.9
2004-11-0117.3
2004-12-0120.0
2005-01-018.5
2005-02-0124.2
2005-03-0115.7
2005-04-0125.5
2005-05-0129.4
2005-06-0130.2
2005-07-0135.5
2005-08-0123.0
2005-09-0121.9
2005-10-0110.9
2005-11-0126.1
2005-12-0113.6
2006-01-0132.2
2006-02-0122.9
2006-03-0130.3
2006-04-0115.0
2006-05-0123.0
2006-06-0122.2
2006-07-0129.2
2006-08-0121.5
2006-09-0133.0
2006-10-0124.5
2006-11-0127.2
2006-12-0138.8
2007-01-0122.9
2007-02-0130.4
2007-03-0126.1
2007-04-0136.8
2007-05-0126.0
2007-06-0138.1
2007-07-0126.8
2007-08-0134.8
2007-09-0132.9
2007-10-0128.7
2007-11-0117.0
2007-12-0127.2
2008-01-0135.1
2008-02-0128.0
2008-03-0130.6
2008-04-0135.6
2008-05-0126.2
2008-06-0124.9
2008-07-0131.1
2008-08-0122.2
2008-09-0113.4
2008-10-0119.2
2008-11-0127.8
2008-12-0123.3
2009-01-0113.6
2009-02-0124.3
2009-03-017.1
2009-04-0110.6
2009-05-0132.3
2009-06-0125.8
2009-07-0117.6
2009-08-0120.1
2009-09-0121.4
2009-10-0125.3
2009-11-0119.5
2009-12-0116.6
2010-01-0115.8
2010-02-0116.0
2010-03-0132.8
2010-04-0111.9
2010-05-0115.6
2010-06-0117.4
2010-07-0118.8
2010-08-0124.1
2010-09-018.5
2010-10-0127.1
2010-11-0126.3
2010-12-0126.8
2011-01-012.8
2011-02-0117.0
2011-03-0128.7
2011-04-0130.0
2011-05-0113.8
2011-06-0129.0
2011-07-0125.5
2011-08-0127.4
2011-09-0131.1
2011-10-0116.6
2011-11-016.5
2011-12-018.4
2012-01-0128.6
2012-02-0132.0
2012-03-0124.0
2012-04-0112.9
2012-05-0131.2
2012-06-019.1
2012-07-0114.4
2012-08-0110.7
2012-09-0133.8
2012-10-0126.4
2012-11-0117.6
2012-12-0127.5
2013-01-015.3
2013-02-0123.1
2013-03-0111.1
2013-04-0129.7
2013-05-0112.9
2013-06-0117.1
2013-07-014.1
2013-08-0143.2
2013-09-012.7
2013-10-0122.8
2013-11-0129.6
2013-12-012.4
2014-01-01-0.4

Back-to-back poor months, the last one negative, do not make a trend. Looking ahead, if this is a start of a new trend, it rates to be very ominous for the employment picture.

For more on the latest jobs data, please see Nonfarm Payrolls +113,000, Median Bloomberg Estimate 180,000; Huge March 2013 Employment Revision

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com


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