Ominous Looking Picture in Healthcare and Education Jobs

Month in, month out, recession or not, there has been a strong uptick in the number of healthcare and education jobs. Until now. A few charts will show what I mean.

Education and Health Services Employment 1990-Present



It's hard to tell much from that picture other than things look very rosy. Let's have a look in percentage terms.

Education and Health Services Employment Percent Change



Now let's hone in on the past year.

Education and Health Services Employment 2013-Present



No Growth!

Education and Health Services Employment Monthly Change in Thousands



The chart appears as if there were several instances of negative numbers in 2003, but a download of the actual data shows the only other negative number in the entire series of data dating back to 1990 occurred in 2003-07-01.

I strongly suspect 2003 was affected by a number of teachers strikes. I could find examples in the Chicago area and in Washington State. I bet there were others. Here is a link regarding Washington: School Board Sues to End Teacher Strike.

Month-to-Month Table (in Thousands)

Date	Change From Previous Month
1990-01-01	#N/A
1990-02-01	36.3
1990-03-01	41.9
1990-04-01	32.6
1990-05-01	37.4
1990-06-01	40.1
1990-07-01	32.5
1990-08-01	34.3
1990-09-01	32.6
1990-10-01	31.7
1990-11-01	28.6
1990-12-01	35.0
1991-01-01	44.6
1991-02-01	30.6
1991-03-01	32.9
1991-04-01	34.0
1991-05-01	20.5
1991-06-01	45.6
1991-07-01	28.8
1991-08-01	39.7
1991-09-01	32.9
1991-10-01	29.8
1991-11-01	25.3
1991-12-01	37.0
1992-01-01	31.7
1992-02-01	21.2
1992-03-01	20.3
1992-04-01	22.4
1992-05-01	23.5
1992-06-01	25.2
1992-07-01	26.6
1992-08-01	16.7
1992-09-01	20.8
1992-10-01	30.4
1992-11-01	33.1
1992-12-01	23.7
1993-01-01	25.8
1993-02-01	26.4
1993-03-01	14.9
1993-04-01	30.2
1993-05-01	33.7
1993-06-01	23.9
1993-07-01	20.0
1993-08-01	23.2
1993-09-01	31.0
1993-10-01	22.5
1993-11-01	16.1
1993-12-01	16.1
1994-01-01	21.7
1994-02-01	15.7
1994-03-01	33.2
1994-04-01	27.8
1994-05-01	21.1
1994-06-01	21.4
1994-07-01	29.0
1994-08-01	25.6
1994-09-01	20.0
1994-10-01	20.2
1994-11-01	17.4
1994-12-01	26.4
1995-01-01	20.4
1995-02-01	29.6
1995-03-01	27.3
1995-04-01	17.9
1995-05-01	13.7
1995-06-01	29.7
1995-07-01	21.5
1995-08-01	28.4
1995-09-01	24.6
1995-10-01	20.1
1995-11-01	28.3
1995-12-01	26.5
1996-01-01	3.7
1996-02-01	39.4
1996-03-01	29.2
1996-04-01	21.5
1996-05-01	25.5
1996-06-01	23.9
1996-07-01	21.0
1996-08-01	18.7
1996-09-01	22.7
1996-10-01	24.1
1996-11-01	25.9
1996-12-01	18.3
1997-01-01	29.3
1997-02-01	17.8
1997-03-01	21.9
1997-04-01	29.1
1997-05-01	26.1
1997-06-01	7.5
1997-07-01	24.7
1997-08-01	12.6
1997-09-01	15.7
1997-10-01	20.8
1997-11-01	16.7
1997-12-01	26.4
1998-01-01	4.4
1998-02-01	10.4
1998-03-01	11.4
1998-04-01	12.6
1998-05-01	19.4
1998-06-01	12.4
1998-07-01	6.7
1998-08-01	12.2
1998-09-01	18.7
1998-10-01	15.1
1998-11-01	10.9
1998-12-01	10.2
1999-01-01	3.4
1999-02-01	24.4
1999-03-01	14.2
1999-04-01	19.7
1999-05-01	5.4
1999-06-01	9.5
1999-07-01	11.1
1999-08-01	13.0
1999-09-01	5.4
1999-10-01	12.9
1999-11-01	13.8
1999-12-01	11.7
2000-01-01	13.1
2000-02-01	12.0
2000-03-01	10.7
2000-04-01	8.9
2000-05-01	15.0
2000-06-01	19.5
2000-07-01	28.0
2000-08-01	22.1
2000-09-01	25.0
2000-10-01	17.7
2000-11-01	18.4
2000-12-01	30.3
2001-01-01	36.8
2001-02-01	33.7
2001-03-01	28.0
2001-04-01	27.4
2001-05-01	29.7
2001-06-01	41.3
2001-07-01	38.3
2001-08-01	32.5
2001-09-01	25.2
2001-10-01	28.5
2001-11-01	27.1
2001-12-01	33.1
2002-01-01	31.4
2002-02-01	30.1
2002-03-01	27.8
2002-04-01	24.5
2002-05-01	17.9
2002-06-01	21.2
2002-07-01	20.5
2002-08-01	35.3
2002-09-01	45.5
2002-10-01	28.8
2002-11-01	28.6
2002-12-01	13.2
2003-01-01	25.4
2003-02-01	22.9
2003-03-01	21.9
2003-04-01	30.5
2003-05-01	23.2
2003-06-01	19.9
2003-07-01	-9.0
2003-08-01	18.2
2003-09-01	13.7
2003-10-01	23.0
2003-11-01	18.7
2003-12-01	27.0
2004-01-01	17.5
2004-02-01	8.8
2004-03-01	36.6
2004-04-01	30.2
2004-05-01	25.2
2004-06-01	15.7
2004-07-01	15.6
2004-08-01	18.8
2004-09-01	15.7
2004-10-01	31.9
2004-11-01	17.3
2004-12-01	20.0
2005-01-01	8.5
2005-02-01	24.2
2005-03-01	15.7
2005-04-01	25.5
2005-05-01	29.4
2005-06-01	30.2
2005-07-01	35.5
2005-08-01	23.0
2005-09-01	21.9
2005-10-01	10.9
2005-11-01	26.1
2005-12-01	13.6
2006-01-01	32.2
2006-02-01	22.9
2006-03-01	30.3
2006-04-01	15.0
2006-05-01	23.0
2006-06-01	22.2
2006-07-01	29.2
2006-08-01	21.5
2006-09-01	33.0
2006-10-01	24.5
2006-11-01	27.2
2006-12-01	38.8
2007-01-01	22.9
2007-02-01	30.4
2007-03-01	26.1
2007-04-01	36.8
2007-05-01	26.0
2007-06-01	38.1
2007-07-01	26.8
2007-08-01	34.8
2007-09-01	32.9
2007-10-01	28.7
2007-11-01	17.0
2007-12-01	27.2
2008-01-01	35.1
2008-02-01	28.0
2008-03-01	30.6
2008-04-01	35.6
2008-05-01	26.2
2008-06-01	24.9
2008-07-01	31.1
2008-08-01	22.2
2008-09-01	13.4
2008-10-01	19.2
2008-11-01	27.8
2008-12-01	23.3
2009-01-01	13.6
2009-02-01	24.3
2009-03-01	7.1
2009-04-01	10.6
2009-05-01	32.3
2009-06-01	25.8
2009-07-01	17.6
2009-08-01	20.1
2009-09-01	21.4
2009-10-01	25.3
2009-11-01	19.5
2009-12-01	16.6
2010-01-01	15.8
2010-02-01	16.0
2010-03-01	32.8
2010-04-01	11.9
2010-05-01	15.6
2010-06-01	17.4
2010-07-01	18.8
2010-08-01	24.1
2010-09-01	8.5
2010-10-01	27.1
2010-11-01	26.3
2010-12-01	26.8
2011-01-01	2.8
2011-02-01	17.0
2011-03-01	28.7
2011-04-01	30.0
2011-05-01	13.8
2011-06-01	29.0
2011-07-01	25.5
2011-08-01	27.4
2011-09-01	31.1
2011-10-01	16.6
2011-11-01	6.5
2011-12-01	8.4
2012-01-01	28.6
2012-02-01	32.0
2012-03-01	24.0
2012-04-01	12.9
2012-05-01	31.2
2012-06-01	9.1
2012-07-01	14.4
2012-08-01	10.7
2012-09-01	33.8
2012-10-01	26.4
2012-11-01	17.6
2012-12-01	27.5
2013-01-01	5.3
2013-02-01	23.1
2013-03-01	11.1
2013-04-01	29.7
2013-05-01	12.9
2013-06-01	17.1
2013-07-01	4.1
2013-08-01	43.2
2013-09-01	2.7
2013-10-01	22.8
2013-11-01	29.6
2013-12-01	2.4
2014-01-01	-0.4

Back-to-back poor months, the last one negative, do not make a trend. Looking ahead, if this is a start of a new trend, it rates to be very ominous for the employment picture.

For more on the latest jobs data, please see Nonfarm Payrolls +113,000, Median Bloomberg Estimate 180,000; Huge March 2013 Employment Revision

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com