Greece Industrial Production Declines 5th Consecutive Month, Unemployment New High of 27.8%; How Long Can Greek Coalition Last?

Those expecting an uptick in Greek GDP received some sobering news this past week. Macropolis reports Unemployment hit new high of 27.8 pct in October, set to rise further.

According to the Hellenic Statistical Agency (ELSTAT), the seasonally adjusted jobless rate in October stood at 27.8 percent from an upwards revised 27.7 percent in the month of September. After the previous months’ revisions, the October rate now holds the new high.

Women lead the way in the unemployment stakes with 32.1 percent lacking jobs compared to 24.7 percent for men.

All age groups are severely impacted by the devastating impact of the Greek depression with the unemployment rate having roughly tripled for each bracket compared to October 2009. For 25-34 year olds it stands at 37.8 percent from 13; for 35-44 at 23.8 percent from 8.3; 20.3 percent for the 45-54 age group and 16.6 percent for the 55-64 year olds. Youth unemployment impacts more than half of those between 15 and 24 looking for a job with the rate standing at 57.9 percent.

Greek Industrial Production Declines 5th Consecutive Month

RT reports Greek Industrial Output Downturn Worsens In November.

Greece's industrial production decreased for the fifth consecutive month in November, and at a faster pace than in the previous month, with all of the major industrial sectors recording decline in activity, data released by the Hellenic Statistical Authority showed Thursday.

Industrial production fell a working-day adjusted 6.1 percent on an annual basis in November, following the previous month's 4.7 percent decrease.

Sequentially, industrial production dropped 4.8 percent in November, after falling 7.9 percent in October, the agency said.

During the January-November period, overall industrial production dropped 3.9 percent from the corresponding period of last year.

With these kinds of numbers I keep wondering how long the coalition government of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras can last.

Coalition Majority Reduced to Three Seats

Reuters reports Fragile Greek coalition's majority shrinks

Prime Minister Antonis Samaras's majority of 26 seats after last year's election has dwindled to the point where it raises the risk of political instability that could hamper recovery and Greece's ability to meet targets for its international bailout.

Samaras expelled lawmaker Byron Polydoras from the conservatives' parliamentary group after he refused to back the new tax law demanded by Greece's lenders.

His expulsion reduces the parliamentary group of Samaras' conservative-Socialist coalition government to 153 in the 300-seat parliament.

Samaras's coalition falls when three more seats go. Polls show that opposition party Syriza would likely win the next election.

Syriza party leader Alexis Tsipras has vowed to scrap the country’s bailout agreement as noted in Prisoner's Dilemma Game in Greece.

Given Greece's current account surplus (ignoring interest on bailout debt), Greece would indeed be in a good position to default.

When they do, and I believe they will, it will be interesting to watch the reactions of nannycrats in Brussels and Angela Merkel supporters in Germany.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com