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Monday, January 13, 2014 8:49 PM


France Collective Depression; Growing Demand for Protection from Immigrants; Only 35% Think EU is Good for France


Les Echos reports "the distrust of politics has never been so high in France. This is one of the great lessons of the latest CEVIPOF annual poll".

Distrust of politics is extremely high everywhere, but at least the US is not in a depression.

Collective Depression

Via translation, please consider The French fall into a "collective depression"

The situation was already not good. And it gets worse again.

Pascal Perrineau, director of the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po (CEVIPOF), now talks of a "collective depression" in France.

For the first time since 2009 - the date of creation of the barometer, "gloom" has a relative majority of 34%, up 9 points. Three-quarters of French youth believe their chances of success of are less than their parents.

60% of French - an increase of 5 points over one year - believe their financial situation will worsen over the next twelve months.

Unions are in the barometer of CEVIPOF, with only 28% of French having confidence. This is a fall of 7 points in a year.

Growing Demand for Protection

Hardening of values is ​​found by the barometer ("there are too many immigrants") with for 67% in agreement.

47% of respondents - a jump of 17 points since 2009 - say France need "more protection". Only 23% want France to open more. Only 35% of French believe that belonging to the European Union is a good thing for France, a drop of 17 points since October 2011.

That statement of opinion will influence the European elections next May. The National Front, with its europhobe speech was well received.

87% of respondents believe that politicians care little or nothing of their opinions (+6 points). 69% - an increase of 21 points - believe that democracy does not work.
Key Stats

  1. Only 35% think the EU is good for France
  2. By a 24 percentage point margin (47-23), voters want more protection from immigrants 
  3. 67% believe there is too much immigration
  4. 60% think their economic situation will worsen in 2014
  5. 87% think politicians "don't care"
  6. 69% think democracy does not work

That is one heck of a change in sentiment since president Francois Hollande was elected.

Once again I repeat my thesis Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the "bail out" debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected.

Outrageous Predictions 

Points 1-3 in the above "key stats" speak volumes about Saxo Bank 10 Outrageous Predictions for 2014 - Steen Jakobsen.

Here is Saxo Bank prediction number 2.
Anti-EU alliance will become the largest group in parliament: Following the May elections, a pan-European, anti-EU alliance, whose members will include the UK Independence Party, euro-currency sceptic Alternative for Germany, the National Front in France and Party for Freedom in the Netherlands, will become the largest group in parliament with a majority of more than 275 seats.

Sweeping the traditional political groups out of power, the new European Parliament chooses an anti-EU chairman and the European heads of state and government fail to pick a president of the EC, sending Europe back into political and economic turmoil.

One trade would be to long German Bunds versus short Spanish Bonos – looking for a 300-basis-point spread again.
Unconventional Thinking

Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank, is not afraid to speak his mind about trading ideas and back them up with sound logic that many would say is "unconventional thinking".

I am very pleased that he is speaking at this year's conference.

Wine Country Conference II

The second annual Wine Country Conference will be held May 1st & 2nd, 2014.

We have an exciting lineup of speakers for this year's conference.

  • John Hussman: Founder of Hussman Funds, Director of the John P. Hussman Foundation which is dedicated to providing life-changing assistance through medical research
  • Steen Jakobsen: Chief Economist of Saxo Bank
  • Stephanie Pomboy: Founder of MacroMavens macroeconomic research
  • David Stockman: Ronald Reagan's budget director, best-selling author, former Managing Director of The Blackstone Group 
  • Mebane Faber: Co-founder and the Chief Investment Officer of Cambria Investment Management
  • Jim Bruce: Producer, Director, and Writer of Money For Nothing: Inside the Federal Reserve 
  • Chris Martenson: Reknown speaker and founder of Peak Prosperity
  • Mike “Mish” Shedlock: Investment advisor for Sitka Pacific and Founder of Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis

In addition, we expect confirmation from a number of other highly respected fund managers and speakers. This year's event is two days and will include additional "break-out" groups.

For speaker bios, please check out Wine Country Conference Speakers.

This Year's Cause: Autism

$100,000 of the money raised last year came from a generous matching grant from the John P. Hussman Foundation.

Some of us in the industry who have done well are making an effort to make a difference. John Hussman is at the very top of that list.

One of John's kids has severe autism. This year, all net proceeds will go to support autism programs.

Conference Details

For further details about the 2014 conference, please see Wine Country Conference May 1st & 2nd, 2014

Nothing Like It!

This event is not just another "come and hear someone talk" kind of thing. Attendees and their significant others can expect an educational, fun, and relaxed time.

Last conference, we arranged wine tours. They were a big hit. We will do so again. One of the wine estates we visited had a Bocce Ball court. On a couple of miracle shots, I won both games I played.

Stay an extra day and golf or travel. I did. The conference hotel is a fun place in and of itself.

Unlike many other conferences, you will have easy access to speakers.

Want to chat with me, Steen, John, or anyone else at the conference? You will have an easy chance.

Not only do we have an excellent lineup of speakers, you will have an opportunity to meet with them, have intimate discussions on important investment topics, with a lot of fun on the side, including wine tours and great wine.

There's nothing like it in the investment business. And your money goes to a great cause! What can be better?

Please Register Now!



Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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