Meaningless Partial Government Shutdown in Progress; What's Affected, What's Not

A partial government shutdown is now underway. I am unimpressed, and so are the futures. U.S. futures are up slightly, and so are global futures in general. Gold and the dollar are flat.

Given this is the 18th partial government shutdown, there is nothing at all to be excited about this evening.

History of 18 Government Shutdowns

Year	Start date	End date	Total days	Explanation
1976	September 30	October 11	10	Citing out of control spending, President Gerald Ford vetoed a funding bill for the United States Department of Labor and the United States Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (HEW), leading to a partial government shutdown. On October 1, the Democratic-controlled Congress overrode Ford's veto but it took until October 11 for a continuing resolution ending funding gaps for other parts of government to become law.
1977	September 30	October 13	12	The Democratic-controlled House continued to uphold the ban on using Medicaid dollars to pay for abortions, except in cases where the life of the mother was at stake. Meanwhile, the Democratic-controlled Senate pressed to loosen the ban to allow abortion funding in the case of rape or incest. A funding gap was created when disagreement over the issue between the houses had become tied to funding for the Departments of Labor and HEW, leading to a partial government shutdown. A temporary agreement was made to restore funding through October 31, 1977, allowing more time for Congress to resolve its dispute.
1977	October 31	November 9	8	The earlier temporary funding agreement expired. President Jimmy Carter signed a second funding agreement to allow for more time for negotiation.
1977	November 30	December 9	8	The second temporary funding agreement expired. The House held firm against against the Senate in its effort to ban Medicaid paying for the abortions of victims of statutory rape. A deal was eventually struck which allowed Medicaid to pay for abortions in cases resulting from rape, incest, or in which the mother's health is at risk.
1978	September 30	October 18	18	Deeming them wasteful, President Carter vetoed a public works appropriations bill and a defense bill including funding for a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. Spending for the Department of HEW was also delayed over additional disputes concerning Medicaid funding for abortion.
1979	September 30	October 12	11	Against the opposition of the Senate, the House pushed for a 5.5 percent pay increase for congress members and senior civil servants. The House also sought to restrict federal spending on abortion only to cases where the mother's life is in danger, while the Senate wanted to maintain funding for abortions in cases of rape and incest.
1981	November 20	November 23	2	President Ronald Reagan pledged that he would veto any spending bill that failed to include at least half of the $8.4 billion in domestic budget cuts that he proposed. Although the Republican controlled Senate passed a bill that met his specifications, the Democratic House insisted on larger cuts to defense than Reagan wanted and for congressional and civil servant pay raises. A compromise bill fell $2 billion short of the cuts Reagan wanted, so Reagan vetoed the bill and shut down the federal government. A temporary bill restored spending through 15 December and gave Congress the time to work out a more lasting deal.
1982	September 30	October 2	1	Congress passed the required spending bills a day late.
1982	December 17	December 21	3	The Democratic controlled House and the Republican controlled Senate wished to fund jobs, but President Reagan vowed to veto any such legislation. The House also opposed plans to fund the MX missile. The shutdown ended after Congress abandoned their jobs plan, but Reagan was forced to yield on funding for both the MX and Pershing II missiles. He also accepted funding for the Legal Services Corporation, which he wanted abolished, in exchange for higher foreign aid to Israel.
1983	November 10	November 14	3	The Democratic controlled House increased education funding, but cut defense and foreign aid spending, which led to a dispute with President Reagan. Eventually, the House reduced their proposed education funding, and also accepted funding for the MX missile. However, the foreign aid and defense cuts remained, and oil and gas leasing was banned in federal wildlife refuges. Abortion was also prohibited for being paid for with government employee health insurance.
1984	September 30	October 3	2	The House wished to link the budget to both a crime-fighting package President Reagan supported and a water projects package he did not. The Senate additionally tied the budget to a civil rights measure designed to overturn Grove City v. Bell. Reagan proposed a compromise where he abandoned his crime package in exchange for Congress dropping theirs. A deal was not struck, and a three-day spending extension was passed instead.
1984	October 3	October 5	1	The three-day spending extension expired, forcing a shutdown. Congress dropped their proposed water and civil rights packages, while President Reagan kept his crime package. Funding for aid to the Nicaraguan Contras was also passed.
1986	October 16	October 18	1	A dispute over multiple issues between the Democratic controlled House and President Reagan and the Republican Senate forced a shutdown. The Democratic controlled House dropped many of their demands in exchange for a vote on their welfare package, and a concession of the sale of then-government-owned Conrail.
1987	December 18	December 20	1	Democrats, who now controlled both the House and the Senate, opposed funding for the Contras, and wanted the Federal Communications Commission to begin reenforcing the "Fairness Doctrine". They yielded on the "Fairness Doctrine" in exchange for non-lethal aid to the Contras.
1990	October 5	October 9	4	President George H.W. Bush vowed to veto any continuing resolution that was not paired with a deficit reduction package, and did so when one reached his desk. The House failed to override his veto before a shutdown occurred. Congress then passed a continuing resolution with a deficit reduction package that Bush signed to end the shutdown.
1995	November 13	November 19	5	In the shutdown of 1995 and 1996 President Bill Clinton vetoed a continuing resolution passed by the Republican-controlled Congress. A deal was reached allowing for 75 percent funding for four weeks, and Clinton agreed to a seven-year timetable for a balanced budget.
1995	December 16	January 6, 1996	21	Subsequently the Republicans demanded President Clinton propose a budget with the seven-year timetable using Congressional Budget Office numbers, rather than Clinton's Office of Management and Budget numbers. However, Clinton refused. Eventually, Congress and Clinton agreed to pass a compromise budget.
2013	October 1	Ongoing	Ongoing	Due to disagreement regarding inclusion of language delaying the Affordable Care Act,[10] the Government has not passed a funding bill. Negotiations have come to a stop and government shutdown is in progress. See also United States federal government shutdown of 2013.

What's Affected, What's Not

In contrast to a ridiculously overhyped mainstream media summation of what might happen (Please see More Government Shutdown Hype), inquiring minds might wish to consider a more realistic assessment.

If so, please consider What's changing, what's not, in a shutdown.

Here's a brief recap:

Campers in national parks with entrance gates will have to leave, a zoo panda-cam will be turned off, the airline consumer complaint-line will be shut down (but not air traffic control), routine food inspections will be off (but not meat inspections or high-risk inspections), some SNAP services may be shut down (but not school lunch programs), there will be delays in handing disability claims, and Friday's jobs report may or may not be delayed. Servicemen will be paid, homeland security personnel will stay on duty, Fannie Mae will keep on issuing mortgages with a full staff, but the FHA which handles about 15% of mortgages will have a reduced staff.

The critical date when more serious cutbacks would happen is somewhere around October 17 or perhaps October 22 (I have seen both dates). I expect this mess to be resolved by then.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com