Global Economic
Trend Analysis

Recent Posts

Tuesday, September 10, 2013 2:43 PM

Latest Polls Not Looking Good For Merkel, 12 Days Before election

Mish Moved to MishTalk.Com Click to Visit.

The German election is on September 22. And with 12 days remaining, things do not look good for a Grand Coalition headed by Merkel.

Via translation, the latest INSA poll looks like this:

  • CDU/CSU - 39%
  • SPD - 28%
  • Grüne (Greens) - 11%
  • Die Linke (Left) - 8%
  • FDP - 4%
  • AfD - 3%
  • Pirate - 3%

I believe AfD will make the 5% cut. I do not know if FDP will make the cut. If neither makes the cut, an unstable "Grand Coalition" is theoretically possible three ways.

Possible Coalitions if Neither AfD Nor FDP Get 5%

  1. SPD + Grüne + Die Linke
  2. CDU/CSU + SPD ("Grand Coalition" with Merkel)
  3. CDU/CSU + SPD ("Grand Coalition" without Merkel)

Possible Coalitions if AfD, not FDP Gets 5%

  1. CDU/CSU + AfD (with Merkel)
  2. CDU/CSU + AfD (without Merkel)
A grand coalition including SPD is theoretically possible.

Possible Coalitions if FDP not AfD Gets 5%

  1. CDU/CSU + FDP (with Merkel)

Again, a grand coalition with SPD is also theoretically possible.

There are numerous combinations if FDP and AfD both get 5%.

One More Merkel Snag

The CDU/CSU-FDP, CDU/CSU-AfD, and CDU/CSU-AfD-FDP possibilities all assume a working majority.

A coalition of CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP would easily have a majority.

A coalition of CDU/CSU + FDP might not have a majority if SDP continues to gain at the expense of CDU/CSU.

Election Not Over

With many sitting the election out and with many undecided voters likely to vote for someone other than CDU/CSU or SPD, this election is hardly over.

Indeed, the mess gets rather complicated if SPD tops 28% and the Greens and Left come close to 10% each. And that outcome is not out of the question.

Merkel should hope that any CDU/CSU slippage goes to FDP and AfD, not anywhere else.

Is CDU/CSU + AfD that bad an option? I think not, but I do not get to vote.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Last 10 Posts

Copyright 2009 Mike Shedlock. All Rights Reserved.
View My Stats