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Sunday, June 30, 2013 10:06 PM

China Manufacturing Conditions Deteriorate, New Export Orders Fall at Fastest Rate Since March 2009

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In what should be no surprise to Mish readers, the HSBC China Manufacturing PMI™ shows Operating conditions deteriorate at quickest pace since last September, and new export orders plunge.

Key points

Output contracts for first time since last October
New export orders fall at the joint-fastest rate since March 2009
Job shedding intensified

Manufacturing PMI

After adjusting for seasonal factors, the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – posted at 48.2 in June, down from 49.2 in May, signalling a modest deterioration of business conditions. Operating conditions have now worsened for two successive months.

Chinese manufacturers signalled a first reduction of output for eight months in June. The rate of contraction was modest, and generally attributed to weaker client demand, as total new orders declined for the second month in a row. New business from abroad also fell in June, with the rate of contraction the fastest since last September, and the joint-sharpest in over four years. Anecdotal evidence suggested that reduced client demand, particularly from Europe and the US, led to fewer new export orders.


Commenting on the China Manufacturing PMI™ survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said: “Falling orders and rising inventories added pressure to Chinese manufacturers in June. And the recent cash crunch in the interbank market is likely to slow expansion of off-balance sheet lending, further exacerbating funding conditions for SMEs. As Beijing refrains from using stimulus, the ongoing growth slowdown is likely to continue in the coming months.”
I frequently disagree with Markit economic comments but these comments from Hongbin Qu are spot on.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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