Global Economic
Trend Analysis

Recent Posts

Wednesday, May 01, 2013 1:25 PM

April 2013 Manufacturing ISM at a Glance; What do the Numbers Mean?

Mish Moved to MishTalk.Com Click to Visit.

US Manufacturing as measured by the April 2013 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is treading water barely above contraction.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in April for the fifth consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 47th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
ISM at a Glance

Series DataApr IndexMar IndexPercentage Point ChangeDirectionRate of ChangeTrend (Months)
New Orders52.351.4+0.9GrowingFaster4
Supplier Deliveries50.949.4+1.5SlowingFrom Faster1
Customers' Inventories44.547.5-3.0Too LowFaster17
Prices50.054.5-4.5UnchangedFrom Increasing1
Backlog of Orders53.051.0+2.0GrowingFaster3


Manufacturing employment has grown for 43 months. I expect that trend to break next month.

Production was up but inventories were way lower. The drop in inventories, in conjunction with a big slowdown in employment, is likely a leading indicator of future production.

The positive surprise that does not fit into the above assessment is that new orders grew at a faster rate. Next month may be telling. I expect the new order divergence to resolve to the downside as the global economy and the US economy are both slowing.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Last 10 Posts

Copyright 2009 Mike Shedlock. All Rights Reserved.
View My Stats