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Monday, February 25, 2013 11:00 AM


Real Time Italian Election Data and Projections; TV Projections Show Berlusconi Coalition Leading in Italy Senate


Reader Lorenzo sent a link where one can watch Italian Election Results (actual vote totals, not exit poll predictions).

Click on "Camera" to see Chamber results (lower house of parliament).
Click on "Senato" to see Senate results (upper house of parliament).

As of this time, Results look like this

Chamber

  • Bersani 34%
  • Grillo 27%
  • Berlusconi 24%
  • Monti 9%

Senate
  • Bersani 33%
  • Berlusconi 28%
  • Grillo 24%
  • Monti 9%


Recall that senate races are regional not national. What matters is how the key regions turn out. Berlusconi can easily win the Senate with small wins in key areas while losing by big margins elsewhere. That appears to be what is happening.

Berlusconi Coalition Leading in Italy Senate

Yahoo! Finance reports TV Projections Show Berlusconi Coalition Leading in Italy Senate.
The centre-right coalition led by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi was leading in the race for the Italian Senate, according to updated projections from television stations after vote counting began on Monday.

Polls from La 7, SkyTG24 and state television RAI put the coalition between Berlusconi's People of Freedom party and the pro-devolution Northern League ahead in the overall national vote count.

The projections from La 7 also put the coalition ahead in the key regions of Lombardy, Sicily and Campania.
Hung Parliament on the Way

The key vote is in the Senate where in spite of losing the popular vote, it appears Berlusconi will win. Recall there is an 8% threshold requirement in the Senate for a candidate to get any seats. Unless Monti hangs on to that 9%, he will be out, making a senate coalition impossible even if Bersani does mange to pull this off.

A hung parliament is likely on the way.

This was a poor showing for Bersani's Center-Left party and a fantastic second place finish for Grillo in the Chamber.

No mainstream media outlets projected the combination of a hung parliament combined with a second-place finish for Grillo, but reader "AC" did just that on my blog.

Comments From "AC"
"AC" just pinged at 11:00AM Central with these thoughts ...

As expected: Initial exit polls forecasts for center-left win were not correct. The first reliable adjusted data based reversed that forecast to a hung parliament projection, with Bersani and Berlusconi close in the Senate, and Grillo at an astonishing 24%.

Grillo's overall totals put him in second place. If this percentage for the Five Start Movement is confirmed, media will label it "unbelievable".

Monti is given below 10% a very poor result. Ingroia (far left) below 4% (also a very poor result).

Regards

AC
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 

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