Startling Look at Employment Demographics by Age Group: Spotlight on Age 25-54

Last month I posted a chart showing employment by age group. Here is an update as of Friday's job release.

Employment Demographics by Age Group



click on chart for sharper image

Note that 100% of the job growth since the recession is in age group 55 and over.

Last month, someone proposed the above chart was blatantly misleading because it does not reflect the aging workforce.

Let's investigate that hypothesis with a look at actual data (numbers in tables and charts in thousands).

Civilian Institutional Population (CP) and Labor Force (LF)

Year	16-19 CP	20-24 CP	25-54 CP	55+ CP	16-19 LF	20-24 LF	25-54 LF	55+ LF
2000	15912	18311	120656	57697	8271	14250	101393	18668
2001	15929	18877	121604	58683	7902	14557	101789	19485
2002	15994	19348	122077	60151	7585	14781	101719	20778
2003	16096	19801	123289	61981	7170	14928	102309	22104
2004	16222	20197	123410	63527	7114	15154	102122	23011
2005	16398	20276	124175	65233	7164	15127	102773	24257
2006	16678	20265	124884	66988	7281	15113	103566	25468
2007	16982	20427	125696	68761	7012	15205	104353	26554
2008	17075	20409	125652	70652	6858	15174	104396	27858
2009	17043	20524	125565	72668	6390	14971	103742	29040
2010	16901	21047	125290	74591	5906	15028	102940	30014
2011	16774	21423	124704	76716	5727	15270	101744	30876
2012	16984	21799	124314	80187	5823	15462	101253	32437

Age Group 25-54 Key Facts

• In 2007 the civilian population was 125,652,000 
• In 2007 the labor force was 104,353,000
• In 2012 the civilian population was 124,314,000
• In 2012 the labor force was 101,253,000

Numbers are non-adjusted from BLS tables.

Simply put, the decrease in civilian population in age group 25-54 was 1,340,000. The decrease in the labor force was a staggering 3,100,000!

Let's explore this idea in still more detail looking at employment, unemployment, and non-employment.

Spotlight on Age Group 25-54

Year	25-54 CP	25-54 LF	25-54 Employed	25-54 Not Employed	25-54 Unemployed
2000	120656	101393	98292	22364	3102
2001	121604	101789	97948	23656	3842
2002	122077	101719	96823	25254	4896
2003	123289	102309	97178	26111	5131
2004	123410	102122	97472	25938	4650
2005	124175	102773	98517	25658	4256
2006	124884	103566	99672	25212	3894
2007	125696	104353	100450	25246	3904
2008	125652	104396	99369	26283	5027
2009	125565	103742	95144	30421	8597
2010	125290	102940	94082	31208	8858
2011	124704	101744	93674	31030	8069
2012	124314	101253	94150	30164	7103

Notes

1. Unemployment is the difference between employment and the labor force. 
2. Not-employed is the difference between employment and the civilian population. 
3. Numbers are non-adjusted from BLS tables. 
4. There may be rounding errors.

More Key Facts For Age Group 25-54

• Between 2007 and 2012 the civilian population declined by 1,340,000
• Between 2007 and 2012 the labor force declined by 3,100,000
• Between 2007 and 2012 employment fell from 100,450,000 to 94,150,000.
• Between 2007 and 2012 employment declined by 6,300,000 jobs on a mere decrease in the civilian population of 1,340,000!

Let's take a look at the above table in chart form.

Civilian Population, Labor Force, Employed, Not-Employed 



click on chart for sharper image

Irrefutable Evidence Falling Employment Not Based on Boomer Demographics

This plunge in employment in the prime working age group of 25-54 is irrefutable proof that the drop in employment and the falling participation rate is not based on aging boomer demographics.

By calculation, 4,960,000 jobs (6,300,000 - 1,340,000) simply vanished into thin air (in age group 25-54 alone).

Thus, the plunge in employment in the prime working age group of 25-54 also provides strong evidence the stated unemployment rate of 7.8% is bogus by a more sensible measure of unemployment.

Better Measure of Unemployment

I propose this simple definition: If you want a job, are physically able to work a job, and you don't have a job, then you are unemployed.

Actual measures are purposely defined to hide the true state of the economy.

For a close scrutiny of the latest jobs report, please see Establishment Survey +155,000 Jobs; Household Survey +28,000 Jobs; Unemployment Rate Revised Up, Flat Since September

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

"Wine Country" Economic Conference Hosted By Mish
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