US CEOs Sharply Reduce Expectations for Economic Outlook, Hiring; Third Largest Plunge in 6-Month Expectations in History; Reflections On "Uncertainty"

Plunge in CEO Expectations

The quarterly survey of CEO expectations looking six months out shows that while CEOs are still positive in regards to capital spending and sales, the recent plunge was the third largest plunge in expectations in history.

John Engler, president of the Business Roundtable discusses CEO sentiment in the following video.

Link If Video Below Does Not Play: CEO Rountable Video



Read the transcript of the call for comments from BRT President John Engler and BRT Chairman and Boeing CEO Jim McNerney.

Hiring Contraction

More CEOs than not expect reduced employment in the next six months.



click on chart for sharper image

CEOs Sharply Reduce Expectations for Economic Outlook, Hiring

Business Roundtable notes CEOs Sharply Reduce Expectations for U.S. Economy.

The results of Business Roundtable’s (BRT) third quarter CEO Economic Outlook Survey for 2012 show a further downturn in CEOs’ expectations for sales, capital spending and hiring for the next six months. The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Survey Index decreased to 66.0 in the third quarter of 2012 from 89.1 in the second quarter of 2012, the lowest reading since the third quarter of 2009 and the third largest single quarter drop in the survey’s history.

“CEOs foresee slower overall economic growth for 2012 and have lower expectations for sales, capital expenditures and hiring compared to last quarter,” said Jim McNerney, Chairman of Business Roundtable and Chairman, President and CEO of The Boeing Company. “The downshift in quarterly sentiment reflects continuing concern about the strength of the recovery, including uncertainty over the approaching fiscal cliff and accompanying debates about the tax code, sequestration and the debt ceiling.”

Third Quarter 2012 CEO Economic Outlook Survey Index

The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Survey Index – a composite index of CEO expectations for the next six months of sales, capital spending and employment – trended downward to 66.0 in the third quarter of 2012 from 89.1 in the second quarter of 2012. This marks the lowest point for the index since the third quarter of 2009.

Plunge In Economic Outlook



click on chart for sharper image

Reflections On "Uncertainty"

CEOs blame "uncertainty" which is nothing more than a euphemism for poor business conditions.

It's as if there is some unwritten rule that CEOs can only be "certain" of good things, never bad. Yes, there is this "fiscal cliff" thing, but business is slowing already, globally, and not just because of a "fiscal cliff".

Simply put, CEOs can easily see things are already getting worse or at least not improving.

Finally, no one can ever truly be "certain" about anything economically speaking six months down the road. CEOs and politicians just do not want to say "conditions suck" so instead they complain about "uncertainty".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

"Wine Country" Economic Conference Hosted By Mish

Click on Image to Learn More