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Tuesday, September 18, 2012 12:32 AM


Romney's Nearly Impossible Math; Foot-in-Mouth Disease; Mish Electoral College Prediction


Foot-in-mouth disease appears to be at least as important as the economy. Thanks to the former, as well as Mitt Romney's completely inept handling of independent voters, it will be extremely difficult if not impossible for Romney to win the presidential election in November.

Romney Casts Off 47% of Voters

Every other week or so, Romney seems to make a major gaff of some sort. His recent flip-flops on Obamacare are a case-in-point.

Worse yet, a new video out shows Romney Casts Off 47% of Voters.

Mitt Romney’s efforts to turn round his campaign were thrown off course after video clips emerged in which the Republican presidential nominee said Barack Obama could count on the support of 47 per cent of Americans who are “dependent on government”, do not pay tax and “believe that they are victims”.

In one clip, Mr Romney says: “There are 47 per cent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what . . . who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe they are entitled to healthcare, to food, to housing, to you-name-it . . . These are people who pay no income tax.”

Mr Romney added: “My job is not to worry about those people. I’ll never convince them they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives.”

Jim Messina, Mr Obama campaign manager, responded: “It’s hard to serve as president for all Americans when you’ve disdainfully written off half the nation.”
Video Clip

It does not matter whether Romney made any sense or not. What matters is pissing off close to half the electorate is not good common politics.

Obama vs. Romney

Real Clear Politics has a very nice interactive Create Your Own Electoral College Map where you can predict states as solid, likely, leaning, or toss-up.

Here is mine.



Toss-Up Analysis

I listed 4 states as toss-ups. Even if Romney wins all of then, he still loses the election, assuming I am right about everything else.

However, I do not think Romney wins all of them. I think Virginia breaks towards Obama just as it did four years ago. If so, unless Romney pulls off a miracle in Ohio coupled with a difficult win in Florida, he simply cannot win.

For the sake of making a prediction, I think Romney carries Iowa and Wisconsin and loses Virginia and Ohio. That makes Florida's 29 votes meaningless. Nonetheless, I think Obama wins Florida.

Filling in the Toss-Ups, my electoral college prediction right now is as follows.




Four years ago, I predicted 49 of 50 states accurately before Obama even won the nomination. This election is much more difficult but I just do not see how Romney can possibly win.

Mathematical Nonsense

Discarding 47% and hoping to "win the middle" is mathematical nonsense.

Moreover, Romney's flip-flopping on Obamacare coupled with his promise to increase military spending (something that most independents loathe), is a road to complete failure.

Independents Will Vote Solidly For Obama Again

I will not vote for either of them, but I strongly suspect most independents will break solidly for Obama based on military spending, women's health-care issues, and a more pragmatic position on tax hikes.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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