Third Consecutive Weak Payroll Report: Jobs +80,000, Unemployment Rate Steady at 8.2%

Jobs Report at a Glance

Here is an overview of today's release.

• US Payrolls +80,000 - Establishment Survey
• US Unemployment Rate steady at 8.2% - Household Survey
• Average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose .1 hours to 34.5 hours
• The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose .1 hour to 33.8 hours.
• Average hourly earnings for all employees in the private sector rose by 6 cents.
  

Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.

Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate

• US Unemployment Rate steady at 8.2% 
• In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,666,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 1,754,000.
• This month the Civilian Labor Force rose by 156,000.
• This month, those "not" in the labor force increased by 34,000 to 87,992,000, another record high. If you are not in the labor force, you are not counted as unemployed. 
• In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 1,912,000 
• This month, the number of people employed rose by 128,000. Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 3,030,000.
• Participation Rate was steady at 63.8%;
• There are 8,210,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work, an increase of 112,000
• Long-Term unemployment (27 weeks and over) was steady at 5.4 million. 
• Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.

Over the past several years people have dropped out of the labor force at an astounding, almost unbelievable rate, holding the unemployment rate artificially low. Some of this was due to major revisions last month on account of the 2010 census finally factored in. However, most of it is simply economic weakness.

June 2012 Jobs Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) June 2012 Employment Report.

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to edge up in June (+80,000), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Professional and business services added jobs, and employment in other major industries changed little over the month.

Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted



Nonfarm Employment - Payroll Survey - Annual Look - Seasonally Adjusted



Employment is finally above the total just prior to the 2001 recession.

Nonfarm Employment - Payroll Survey February to June - Seasonally Adjusted



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Between January 2008 and February 2010, the U.S. economy lost 8.8 million jobs.

Since the employment low in February 2010, nonfarm payrolls have expanded by about 4.2 million jobs. Of the 8.8 million jobs lost between January 2008 and February 2010, approximately 47.8% percent have been recovered (not accounting for normal demographics growth)

Statistically, 125,000+- jobs a month is enough to keep the unemployment rate flat. For a discussion, please see Question on Jobs: How Many Does It Take to Keep Up With Demographics?

In the second quarter of 2012, employment was up by an average of 75,000 per month, compared with an average monthly gain of 226,000 for the first quarter of the year.

In the first half of 2012, job gains averaged 150,000 per month, about the same as the average monthly increase in 2011.

The average employment gain over the last 28 months has been 137,000, barely enough (statistically speaking) to make a dent in the unemployment rate.

Yet, the civilian unemployment rate has fallen from 9.8% to 8.2%.

Current Report Jobs



Average Weekly Hours



Average Hourly Earnings vs. CPI



BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box

The BLS Birth/Death Model is an estimation by the BLS as to how many jobs the economy created that were not picked up in the payroll survey.

The Birth-Death numbers are not seasonally adjusted, while the reported headline number is. In the black box the BLS combines the two, coming up with a total.

The Birth Death number influences the overall totals, but the math is not as simple as it appears. Moreover, the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance.

Do not add or subtract the Birth-Death numbers from the reported headline totals. It does not work that way.

Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing. Practice is clearly another as noted by numerous recent revisions.

Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2011



Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2012



Birth-Death Note

Once again: Do NOT subtract the Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.

Household Survey Data



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In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,666,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 1,754,000.  Those not in the labor force rose by 1,912,000 to yet another record high 87,992,000.

That is an amazing "achievement" to say the least, and as noted above most of this is due to economic weakness not census changes.

Decline in Labor Force Factors

1. Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs
2. People retire because they cannot find jobs
3. People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job
4. People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job

Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.

Part Time Status



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There are 8,210,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work.

BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment



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Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.

The official unemployment rate is 8.2%. However, if you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 14.9%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Duration of Unemployment



Long-term unemployment remains in a disaster zone.

Grossly Distorted Statistics

Given the complete distortions of reality with respect to not counting people who allegedly dropped out of the work force, it is easy to misrepresent the headline numbers.

Digging under the surface, the drop in the unemployment rate over the past two years is nothing but a statistical mirage. Things are much worse than the reported numbers indicate.


Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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