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Tuesday, May 08, 2012 11:36 AM


SYRIZA's Tsipras Lists Bailout Rejection as Key Demand; Don't Rule Out a SYRIZA Coalition; Eventually May Be At Hand; Why SYRIZA Will Win the Next Election


The opportunity for Greece to tell the Troika to "go to hell" is at hand, if only the political left can stop bickering long enough to form a coalition.

Bailout Rejection Key Demand

Alexis Tsipras (SYRIZA's leader) says he will use all three allotted days to do so. His key demand is a bailout rejection, which would mean a eurozone exit whether that is his intention or not. 

Please consider SYRIZA's Tsipras to make bailout rejection key bargaining point

The SYRIZA leader is expected to meet the head of the Democratic Left, Fotis Kouvelis, at 3.30 p.m., Ecologist Greens representative Ioanna Kontouli at 5.30 p.m. and the Social Pact president Louka Katseli at 7 p.m.

Tsipras has indicated that he will use the full three days at his disposal to talk with all the party leaders, including those of New Democracy and PASOK, but barring Chrysi Avgi (Golden Dawn).

Because of the 50-seat bonus received by the first party, in this case New Democracy, there is no way SYRIZA can form a government without ND if it does not secure the support of PASOK and the Communist Party (KKE).

KKE leader Aleka Papariga has already rejected any idea of cooperation with SYRIZA, although Tsipras will meet with her to discuss the matter.

The only other option open to SYRIZA is to receive the backing of ND and PASOK, which seems unlikely.

Sources have suggested that Tsipras will present a three-point proposal to his counterparts, which will include the rejection of the bailout terms.

Leading SYRIZA MP Panayiotis Lafazanis told Skai radio on Tuesday that the party would seek for some of Greece’s debt to be written off.

“SYRIZA will ask for the debt to be renegotiated with the aim of its larger party being written off,” he said, adding that the leftist party does not recognise debt that is not sustainable and which Greeks cannot pay.
Tsipras' Five Point Proposal

Please consider Tsipras lays out five points of coalition talks

  1. The immediate cancellation of all impending measures that will impoverish Greeks further, such as cuts to pensions and salaries.
  2. The immediate cancellation of all impending measures that undermine fundamental workers' rights, such as the abolition of collective labor agreements.
  3. The immediate abolition of a law granting MPs immunity from prosecution, reform of the electoral law and a general overhaul of the political system.
  4. An investigation into Greek banks, and the immediate publication of the audit performed on the Greek banking sector by BlackRock.
  5. The setting up of an international auditing committee to investigate the causes of Greece's public deficit, with a moratorium on all debt servicing until the findings of the audit are published.
Election Process

An email from Barclays Capital Explains the Greek election process and dates:
Political uncertainty remains high in Greece. A new electoral round (which would probably be held on 10 or 17 June) looks increasing likely at this stage as, in our view, none of the three parties with the most votes seem likely to be able to secure Parliamentary support for a coalition government.

ND's leader Samaras (who came first at Sunday's ballot) declared yesterday he was unable to form a government, while Alexis Tsipras (SYRIZA's leader, who came second) seems likely to face difficulties to find support of other large left-wing parties. According to sources quoted by Kathimerini, Mr. Tsipras (SYRIZA's leader) will try in fact to reach an agreement with Communist Party (KKE) and Democratic Left, a moderate, pro-Europe grouping, although KKE has already ruled out any cooperation.

While PASOK will be also entitled to try to form a government (should SYRIZA's attempt fail), we think it will be difficult by then to form a coalition able to secure an outright majority in the Parliament.

In a second general election only the seven parties who received seats in Sunday's vote would be eligible to participate. Were there to be a second election, we think New Democracy and PASOK would probably seek to turn the election into a decision on Greece's membership of the euro. If there was still an inconclusive result after a second election, then it is likely that Lucas Papademos would be invited to form another technical government.
Eventually May Be At Hand

Here is a point that Barclays missed.

SYRIZA came in second place in this election. Perhaps SYRIZA comes in first place in the next election. If so, it would pick up an extra 50 seats.

As I have said on numerous occasions, Eventually, Will Come a Time When ....
Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the "bail out" debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected.
Why SYRIZA Will Win the Next Election

Alexis Tsipras is saying all the right things (in terms of what most Greeks want to hear). His surprise second-place finish is likely to become a surprise first-place finish in the next election, perhaps by a lot more than anyone thinks.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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