Newt Gingrich Fades Fast in Iowa Polls, Ron Paul in Statistical Dead Heat

Whether or not the news media pays any attention to Ron Paul, voters do and the polls show it. Ron Paul is now essentially tied with New Gingrich in the latest Iowa poll.

Please consider Gingrich ahead in US poll, but slipping in Iowa

Republican White House hopeful Newt Gingrich has surged ahead of rival Mitt Romney nationwide, but his lead in Iowa has faded ahead of the January 3 caucuses, two new polls showed.

Gingrich, the former speaker of the House of Representatives, and Romney are seeking their party's nomination to take on Democratic President Barack Obama in the November 2012 election.

The Iowa vote, which kicks off the Republican presidential nominating process, will be seen as a crucial test of strength for Gingrich, who only weeks ago took the lead from long-time frontrunner Romney.

Gingrich now has 40 percent support among likely Republican voters nationwide, far ahead of the 23 percent support for Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.

National polls are not decisive in a contest fought on a state-by-state basis, but do reflect the temperature of national opinion of a particular candidate.

In Iowa, Gingrich tops a Public Policy Polling survey of likely Republican voters with 22 percent support, just slightly ahead of Texas Congressman Ron Paul with 21 percent -- a major drop from the nine-point lead he enjoyed in the previous PPP survey one week ago.

Romney's support in Iowa -- a largely rural midwestern state which barely figures in the general election but is key as the first official nominating contest -- was unchanged at 16 percent since last week.

"Newt Gingrich’s momentum is fading in Iowa," said PPP president Dean Debnam.

Gingrich has come under fire from members of the party's religious base over his admitted extramarital affairs. Both Romney and Texas Governor Rick Perry have run ads in Iowa emphasizing their family values credentials.

"When it comes to his character record, he’s a very fine, empty suit with a broken zipper," wrote Iowa pastor Albert Calaway, a member of the Truth, Values and Leadership evangelical group, according to local media.

.....

PPP surveyed 555 likely Iowa Republican caucus voters between December 11-13. The poll has a plus or minus 4.2 point margin of error.

The WSJ/NBC poll surveyed 1,000 adults between December 7-11 and has an overall plus-minus 3.1 percentage point margin of error.

Blatant Reporting Bias

I posted more paragraphs than necessary in the above clips. I did so on purpose to prove a point. It was not until the 6th paragraph that Ron Paul even got a mention.

I also call your attention to the second-to-last paragraph. "The poll has a plus or minus 4.2 point margin of error."

Given the margin of error, and the momentum, Ron Paul has surged into a statistical tie with Gingrich.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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