Slovenian Bond Yield Breaks 7%, First Time Since Euro Entry in 2007; Might Slovenia Exit the Eurozone First?

Slovenian Prime Minister Borut Pahor’s government was toppled in a no-confidence vote on September 20 and the crisis in Slovenia has worsened ever since.

Bloomberg reports Slovenian Bond Yield Breaks 7%, First Time Since Euro Entry

Slovenia’s 10-year government bonds slid for a fourth day, with the yield topping 7 percent for the first time since the nation adopted the euro in 2007, as the debt crisis in Europe roils markets.

The yield rose to 7.14 percent at 1:05 p.m. in Ljubljana, according to Bloomberg data. Slovenia, which holds early elections next month, was cut by Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings on the government’s collapse, the poor economic outlook and a weak banking industry. The former Yugoslav republic is also a victim of its “proximity” to Italy, which is struggling to fend off an investor crisis of confidence.

Slovenia Must Tackle Debt

Bostjan Vasle, Slovenia's chief economic forecaster, says Slovenia Must Tackle Debt as Recession Looms

Slovenia’s next government must cut public spending as the likelihood of the nation sliding into a recession because of the euro region’s debt crisis increases, according to the government’s forecasting institute.

Slovenes will vote on Dec. 4 after Prime Minister Borut Pahor’s government was toppled in a no-confidence vote on Sept. 20. Its failure to cut public spending and the rejection of the pension changes in June prompted credit rating companies to lower the country’s assessment.

The export-driven economy is faltering as demand in Europe weakens after governments embarked on spending cuts to allay investors’ concern over debt sustainability. Gross domestic product weakened to an annual 0.9 percent in second quarter from a 2.3 percent pace in the first three months.

“The key challenge for the new Cabinet will be to consolidate public finances,” Bostjan Vasle, the institute’s director told reporters in Ljubljana today. “We can’t rule out the possibility economic growth will be negative in some quarters as there are visible signs of an economic slowdown in Europe.”

Recession 100% Guaranteed

Some of these bureaucrat's comments are rather humorous, such as "We can’t rule out the possibility economic growth will be negative in some quarters."

Good grief. Negative growth is 100% guaranteed.

Might Slovenia Exit the Eurozone First?

Slovenia had no business joining the Eurozone in the first place. With all eyes on Greece, perhaps it is Slovenia that says goodbye first.

The first thing Slovenia has in its favor is the ECB and IMF did not blow hundreds of billions of euros attempting to rescue it.

The second thing it has in its favor is recent grief immediately after joining the Eurozone.

Let's see what a new government brings. Hopefully a sensible one that exits the EMU, proving the world will not end when a country does.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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