Enron-i-sation of Europe; Is the Euro "Beyond Rescue"?

Steen Steen Jakobsen, chief economist for Saxo bank in Denmark discusses the Enron-i-sation of Europe in an Email "Macro Brief"

The Enron-i-sation of Europe: Finding solutions through SPV’s speak for themselves. Apart from the inability to being implemented (if German constitutional court is heard) it’s also a slippery road towards permanent aid. Hiding debt in more and more obscure vehicles is similar to Enron having 1000s of SPV hiding the “real issue”. Debt is debt. It needs to be paid back or someone needs to take a loss!

New financial tax: This is major game changer – this is in my opinion the beginning of the end for Europe – the “new new” in this scenario is that G-20/EU seems to have found an academic documentation that the tax may not need be applied “universally” – they mention domestic taxes in India(not freely trading market) and UK.

The suggested (not confirmed) level of taxes are 0.1 pc on shares and bonds (1 mio. EUR equals “tax” of 1.000 EUR) and 0.01 on derivatives or 1.4 pips on each side of EURUSD! This is MASSIVE tax……. And as such shows that my Maximum Intervention concept is now operating a top speed.

Banks are now meeting around Europe to move their operation outside the EU.

We are no longer doing two steps forward, three steps back, but one step forward and ten back. Furthermore the so called “Plan” for saving Europe is not reality.

All my sources confirm, again and again, this is a desperate attempt to find the right path through this mess. The people in the know, realize there are no longer any good solutions only pain. The pain from here is either 2-5 years of recession or 10-15 years. Enron-i-sation & tax makes this week the new low in solidarity, rationality and solution seeking.

Cash is king – and cash in UK, Switzerland, Singapore, and US even more King-ish. I remain EXTREMELY bearish on this.

Notes on SPVs

Investopedia describes the Special Purpose Vehicle/Entity - SPV/SPE

What Does Special Purpose Vehicle/Entity - SPV/SPE Mean?

1. Also referred to as a "bankruptcy-remote entity" whose operations are limited to the acquisition and financing of specific assets. The SPV is usually a subsidiary company with an asset/liability structure and legal status that makes its obligations secure even if the parent company goes bankrupt.

2. A subsidiary corporation designed to serve as a counterparty for swaps and other credit sensitive derivative instruments. Also called a "derivatives product company."

Thanks to Enron, SPVs/SPEs are household words.

Euro is "Practically Dead, Beyond Rescue"

Bloomberg reports Euro Is Beyond Rescue in Debt Crisis, Szalay-Berzeviczy Says

The euro is “practically dead” and Europe faces a financial earthquake from a Greek default, according to Attila Szalay-Berzeviczy, global head of securities services at Italy’s biggest lender UniCredit SpA. (UCG)

“The euro is beyond rescue,” Szalay-Berzeviczy said in an opinion piece for index.hu., a Hungarian news portal, which he signed as former chairman of the Budapest Stock Exchange. “The only remaining question is how many days the hopeless rearguard action of European governments and the European Central Bank can keep up Greece’s spirits.”

“It’s one scenario among many, one which may lead to the breakup of the euro area via a banking crisis,” he said in the interview. “This can still be averted. It primarily depends on the Germans, and secondly on European citizens, especially on how much the Greek population can tolerate.”

Szalay-Berzeviczy’s “are his own personal view and do not reflect the position of the company,” Claudia Bresgen, a spokeswoman at UniCredit in Munich, Germany, said by e-mail.

"Beyond Rescue" and "This can still be averted" are logical opposites.

Nonetheless, it's interesting to see such blunt comments from high places at major lenders, even if those comments "do not reflect the position of the company".

For more on the twisted mess in Europe, please consider these recent posts

• Growing Isolation in Germany as Merkel's Allies Abandon Her; Polls Show 75% of Germans Oppose More Bailouts; Clock Ran Out of Time


• Merkel Prepares Market for Bigger Haircuts; Split opens Over Greek Bail-Out Terms; Needs vs. Fantasies


• Europe Plans to Tax Stock and Bond Transactions .1%, Derivatives .01% Despite US Objections; Expect More Crashes Should it Pass


• European Stocks Climb Most in 16 Months; Pimco's El-Erian Says "Europe Finally Gets It"; El-Erian is Wrong in Multiple Ways


• Germany's Top Judge Throws Major Monkey Wrench Into Leveraged EFSF Machinery, Demands New Constitution and Popular Referendum for Further Powers

I struggle to see how the Eurozone can survive intact. No currency union without a fiscal union has ever survived and the German court ruled out a fiscal union without a new constitution and popular referendum. Good luck with that given 75% of Germans oppose more bailouts. See the above articles for details.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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