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Tuesday, August 30, 2011 8:35 PM


First Time Foreclosure Starts Near 3-Year Lows, However Bad News Overwhelms; Foreclosure Pipeline in NY is 693 months and 621 Months in NJ


The LPS Mortgage Monitor August 2011 Mortgage Performance Report Shows First-Time Foreclosure Starts Near Three-Year Lows. That's the good news.

The Bad News

  • Average Loan in Foreclosure Is Delinquent for Record 599 Days
  • Of the nearly 1.9 million loans that are 90 or more days delinquent but not yet in foreclosure, 42 percent have not made a payment in more than a year with an average delinquency of 397 days, also a new record.
  • As of the end of June, 4.1 million loans were either 90 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure, as delinquencies remain two times and foreclosures eight times pre-crisis levels.
  • On average, at the current rate of foreclosure sales, judicial foreclosure states would require 111 months to work through inventories of loans that are 90 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure as compared to non-judicial states, which would be able to clear the inventories in approximately 32 months.
  • Most of the foreclosure “outflow” is back into delinquency
  • Loans deteriorating over 90 days still outnumber foreclosure starts 2:1
  • Foreclosure starts outnumber sales by a factor of almost 3:1

Here are a few charts from the LPS Mortgage Monitor Report

click on any chart for sharper image

First time foreclosure starts near three year lows



42% of Loans 90 Day Delinquent+, Not Made a Payment in 12 Months or More



Most of the foreclosure “outflow” is back into delinquency



Loans deteriorating over 90 days still outnumber foreclosure starts 2:1




Foreclosure starts outnumber sales by a factor of almost 3:1



The pipeline ratio in judicial states is more than 3 times that of non-judicial



States with highest percentage of non-current loans: FL, MS, NV, NJ, IL
States with the lowest percentage of non-current loans: MT, WY, AK, SD, ND

Non-current totals combine foreclosures and delinquencies as a percent of active loans in that state.

The Foreclosure Pipeline in New York is 693 months (over 57 years) and 621 Months (over 51 years) in New Jersey!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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