Long-Term Trends in Durable Goods, Two New Charts
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Doug Short had an interesting set of charts on durable goods on his site earlier today.
His post, The "Real" Goods on Today's Durable Goods Orders showed "real" inflation-adjusted, population-adjusted charts of durable goods and durable goods ex-transportation.
Those charts show just how anemic this recovery has been. I asked Doug for two additional charts, showing "real" inflation-adjusted, population-adjusted charts of durable goods ex-defense, and ex-defense and ex-transportation.
Courtesy of Doug Short here are those charts. They will be posted on his site tomorrow.
Durable Goods Excluding Defense
click on chart for sharper image
Durable Goods Excluding Defense and Transportation
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I asked for those charts because they offer a better picture of "core" durable goods orders of consumers (TVs, furniture, appliances, etc.)
The per-capita and real-per-capita charts tell a story of decay, and that decay started with the ascent of Chinese manufacturing and continued even through the housing boom years.
Ex-defense, the peak per-capita durable goods production was September 1997.
Doug Short has additional charts, not per-capita adjusted in Durable Goods Orders In Perspective
Here is an interesting chart from that set.
Durable Goods vs. S&P 500
click on chart for sharper image
If durable goods take a dive, and I believe they will, expect the stock market to take a dive as well.
Addendum:
I asked for one more chart that I thought would show the effect of the housing bubble.
Durable Goods Ex-Defense, Not Inflation or Per-Capita Adjusted
click on chart for sharper image
The 1990's was fueled by the internet boom and the 2000's by the housing bubble. Durable goods are still not back to the internet bubble peak in 2000 in spite of massive global stimulus.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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