China PMI Lowest Since February 2009, on Verge of Contraction; 18-Month Low in Europe; US ISM Unexpectedly Rises; US an Outlier?

Still more signs the weakening recovery is all but over come from China where the private and government reported manufacturing PMIs are are verge of contraction.

China's official manufacturing PMI data showed the index falling to 50.9 in June from 52.0 in May -- the third consecutive month of slowing in the manufacturing sector. The slowdown was consistent with the private HSBC PMI, which slipped to an 11-month low of 50.1 in June, from 51.6 in May.

"This lower-than-expected PMI reading will further depress markets which have been increasingly worried about a hard landing in China in the past two months," said BOAML economist Lu Ting.

US ISM Unexpectedly Rises

In a snapback of weaker than expected manufacturing ISM reports recently, U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Unexpectedly Rose in June

The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index unexpectedly rose to 55.3 in June from 53.5 the prior month, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today.

Economists projected the gauge would drop to 52, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates of the 77 economists ranged from 49 to 55.

Other figures today showed manufacturing growth is slowing from China to Europe. China’s factory index fell in June to the weakest level since February 2009, while in the 17-nation euro area, a gauge slipped to an 18-month low. German manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace in 17 months, while Italy, Ireland, Spain and Greece contracted.

Scorecard

1. China on Verge of Contraction
2. Germany 17-Month Low
3. Europe 18-Month Low
4. Italy, Ireland, Spain, Greece in Contraction
5. US ISM Rises

US an Outlier?

I believe the US is an outlier. Manufacturers are gearing up following the Japanese tsunami, expecting a second-half revival that will not come.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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