Qaddafi Digs In; Uprising Heads Towards Decisive Stage; Simmering Anarchy, Then What?

I suspect it will be all over for Colonel Qaddafi within days. What happens to the Libya itself will take much longer to sort out.

Please consider Mercenaries Stream Toward Tripoli as Qaddafi Digs In

Thousands of African mercenaries and militiamen were massing on roads heading toward Tripoli on Wednesday to reinforce the stronghold of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi as rebels protesting his 40-year rule claimed to have taken control of cities closer to the capital, witnesses said.

The week-old uprising that has swept Libya now appears headed for a decisive stage, with Colonel Qaddafi fortifying his bastion in Tripoli and opponents in the capital saying they were making plans for their first coordinated protest.

“A message comes to every mobile phone about a general protest on Friday in Tripoli,” one resident there said, adding that Colonel Qaddafi’s menacing speech to the country on Tuesday had increased their determination “100 percent.”

The looming signs of a new confrontation came as a growing number of Libyan military officers and officials said Wednesday that they had broken with Colonel Qaddafi over his intentions to bomb and kill Libyan civilians challenging him.

For the first time there were reports of protests in the southern city of Sabha, considered a Qaddafi stronghold.

The country’s long-serving interior minister, Gen. Abdel Fattah Younes al-Abidi, said Wednesday that he had decided to resign after the people of Benghazi were shot down with machine guns.

[In Tripoli] Witnesses said groups of heavily armed militiamen and mercenaries from other African countries cruised the streets in pickups, spraying crowds with machine-gun fire and then carting away bodies in vans. On Wednesday, a resident said mercenaries were still roaming the city and enforcing a reign of terror.

“All the government buildings in Tripoli are burned down,” the resident said. “But the mercenaries, they have weapons. The Libyans don’t have weapons. They will kill you.”

Colonel Qaddafi’s security forces have made no effort yet to take back the growing number of towns in the east that have in effect declared their independence and set up informal opposition governments. For now, in broad parts of the country, there was little indication of what would replace the vacuum left by Colonel Qaddafi’s authority other than simmering anarchy.

Towns Slip From Qaddafi’s Control

The New York Times has a interesting 13-image slide show of cites no longer in Qaddafi’s Control. Here are a few images.

A growing number of towns in Libya's east have in effect declared their independence from Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi's rule and set up informal opposition governments. In Tobruk, an eastern city that joined the uprising almost as soon as it began, members of the Libyan opposition chanted victory slogans.

Credit: Ed Ou for The New York Times

Libyan youths chanted antigovernment slogans in Tobruk. Colonel Qaddafi's four decades of idiosyncratic one-man rule have left the country without any national institutions that could provide the framework for a transitional government.

Credit: Scott Nelson for The New York Times



Libyan youths held pictures of people they celebrated as martyrs during protests in Tobruk. Residents of Tobruk said neighboring cities — including Dernah, Al Qubaa, Bayda and El Marij — were effectively ruled by the opposition.

Credit: Scott Nelson for The New York Times



A Libyan boy wore a looted uniform of Colonel Qaddafi's security forces during nighttime protests in Tobruk.

Credit: Scott Nelson for The New York Times

A tip of the hat to Scott Nelson and Ed Ou for those images

TimesCast Libya



After the Anarchy

Here is one of the image captions for further consideration: "Colonel Qaddafi's four decades of idiosyncratic one-man rule have left the country without any national institutions that could provide the framework for a transitional government."

Moreover, and unlike Egypt whose army was generally well-liked and in support of the Egyptian citizens, the Libyan army has splintered into groups loyal to various cities, and one group loyal to Qaddafi. Even with an assumption that Qaddafi's rein of terror is measured in days, sorting out a transition government and dealing with terrorists will not be as easy as it was in Egypt.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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