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Monday, November 01, 2010 11:41 PM


Election Predictions - How Big the Blowout?


A few months ago when some thought it was possible the Republicans might take the house, I thought the odds were about 75%. In early July I had it at 60%. Today there is little question the Republicans will win the House.

The only question now is "How big will the blowout be?"

Battle for the House

Real Clear Politics shows the Battle for the House like this.



Note that Republicans will control the house even if they lose all 44 tossup seats, provided they win 56 of the 61 Republican leaners and likely seats.

To be sure, the Republicans are unlikely to win every seat they are leaning or likely, but the same holds true for the Democrats.

Moreover, surprises are far more likely to go to the Republicans. For example, I think Doug Cloud has a better than even shot at winning Washington District 6 even though RCP has that race marked as "Likely Democrat".

To make a final prediction, I went through all 44 tossup elections giving the Democrats the benefit of the doubt anytime they were consistently ahead, regardless of how little (as long as it was consistent). I treated Republicans the same. That methodology awards 15 seats to the Democrats and 9 Republicans.

That leaves has 20 genuine tossups where there were no polls, the polling data extremely old, or polls were inconsistent or with huge swings. Assuming the incumbent will win about 2/3 of those seats I will award 14 to the Democrats and 6 to the Republicans.

House Prediction

224 + 15 of 44 tossups would be 239. That is a pickup of 61 seats. To go out on a limb and factor in complete surprises that I believe will go Republican, I will add 3 more to the total.

My final prediction then is 242 Republican seats, a pickup of 64.

Battle for the Senate

Real Clear Politics shows the Battle for the Senate like this.



Once again I am willing to give the leaners to each party. With only 7 Tossups remaining I will call each one.

The Incumbent is listed first.

CA: Barbara Boxer (D) Wins over Carly Fiorina (R)
CO: Michael Bennet (D) Loses to Ken Buck (R)
IL: Alexi Giannoulias (Open D) Loses to Mark Kirk (R)
NV: Harry Reid (D) Loses to Sharron Angle (R)
PA: Joe Sestak (Open D) Loses to Pat Toomey (R)
WA: Patty Murray (D) Loses to Dino Rossi (R)
WV: Manchin (Open D) Wins over John Raese (R)

If correct, that is a pickup of another 5 seats.
I will go with that as my final call.

Senate Prediction - 50 Republicans 50 Democrats

The polls show a very slight lead for Murray, but I believe Rossi will pull it out. It is possible but I do not think likely, that Republicans will win one of the other two races.

Battle for Governors

Real Clear Politics shows the Battle for Governor like this.



CO: John Hickenlooper (Open D) Wins over Dan Maes (R) and Tom Tancredo (I)
CT: Tom Foley (Open R) Wins over Dan Malloy (D)
FL: Rick Scott (Open R) Wins over Alex Sink (D)
HI: Duke Aiona (Open R) Loses to Neil Abercrombie (D)
IL: Pat Quinn (D) Loses to Bill Brady (R)
MA: Deval Patrick (D) Wins over Charles Baker (R)
MN: Tom Emmer (Open R) Loses to Mark Dayton (D)
OH: Ted Strickland (D) Loses to John Kasich (R)
OR: John Kitzhaber (Open D) Loses to Chris Dudley (R)
RI: John Robitaille (Open R) Loses to Lincoln Chafee (I)
VT: Brian Dubie (Open R) Loses to Peter Shumlin (D)

I am going with two lagging in the polls: Florida and Oregon, on hopes of a huge Republican turnout. Vermont is a wildcard.

My prediction then is 32 Republican, 17 Democrat, 1 Independent

That is a big pickup from the current 26-24 edge to the Democrats.

Because this is a census year, the Gubernatorial races take on extra importance. It is quite advantageous to control the governorship in redistricting years. These pickups will certainly help Republicans.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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