Shiller Warns Of Japanese Style Recession

The Times Online is reporting Shiller Says America could plunge into Japan-Style Recession.

Losses arising from America’s housing recession could triple over the next few years and they represent the greatest threat to growth in the United States, one of the world’s leading economists has told The Times.

Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale University, predicted that there was a very real possibility that the US would be plunged into a Japan-style slump, with house prices declining for years.

Professor Shiller, co-founder of the respected S&P Case/Shiller house-price index, said: “American real estate values have already lost around $1 trillion [£503 billion]. That could easily increase threefold over the next few years. This is a much bigger issue than sub-prime. We are talking trillions of dollars’ worth of losses.”

He said that US futures markets had priced in further declines in house prices in the short term, with contracts on the S&P Shiller index pointing to decreases of up to 14 per cent.

“Over the next five years, the futures contracts are pointing to losses of around 35 per cent in some areas, such as Florida, California and Las Vegas. There is a good chance that this housing recession will go on for years,” he said.

Well I certainly am not arguing with that forecast. A Japanese Style Recession is consistent with what I have been proposing for quite some time.

When does Peter Schiff hop on board that train of thought? Please see Not Your Father's Deflation: Rebuttal or Peter Schiff Replies to Deflation Rebuttal for alternative viewpoints and a rebuttal of those viewpoints.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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