Houston, We have a problem

Note: The page header may not refresh properly on the following links but the data itself should represent the correct city.

Houston, We have a problem
It seems Centex has over 140 Houston homes with "quick move in" availability. Nearly all of them are available "immediately".

Austin, We have a problem
It seems Centex has over 100 Austin homes with "quick move in" availability. Nearly all of them are available "immediately".

Dallas, We have a problem
It seems Centex has over 200 Dallas / Fort Worth with "quick move in" availability. Most of these will be available within the next couple months.

Killeen, We have a problem
It seems Centex has over 65 Killeen homes with "quick move in" availability. Most of these will be available within the next couple months.

San Antonio, We have a problem
It seems Centex has over 190 San Antonio homes with "quick move in" availability. Most of these will be available this summer but there is an ample selection now and over the next couple of months as well.

Hmmm. Let's see that's about 700 Texas homes Cextex needs to get rid of in the face of declining sales and rising inventories. Bear in mind that is just Texas. Let's look elsewhere:

Orlando, We have a problem
It seems Centex has over 25 Orlando Homes with "quick move in" availability. Most of these will be available by the end of March.

Tampa, We have a problem
It seems Centex has over 40 Tampa homes with "quick move in" availability. Availability of these homes is widely spaced out.

Chicago, We have a problem
It seems Centex has over 20 Chicago homes with "quick move in" availability. Availability of these homes is widely spaced out.

It would take me too long to go through every state but you can look up your favorite locations on this Centex US Map. Just click on your favorite city, then on "Homes ready for quick move in" to find the current state of inventory.

Centex is clearly carrying a lot of speculative inventory and further price reductions should be expected. I can easily summarize the situation:
Centex, You have a problem.

It is not just Centex either.
Checking every builder, it appears "immediate move in", "homes available now" etc are new pages on their websites.

Beazer has 17 pages of "Homes Available Now" for Houston. Unfortunately it also lists homes under contract making it more time costly to figure out real inventory vs. what has already been sold. Click on "Find Your Home" to check out your favorite bubble areas, state by state.

Meritage Texas "Quick Move Ins":
Meritage has 118 "Quick Move Ins" for Austin
Meritage has 94 "Quick Move Ins" for Dallas / Fort Worth
Meritage has 99 "Quick Move Ins" for Houston
Meritage has 18 "Quick Move Ins" for San Antonio

Enquiring minds may wish to start with the Meritage home page to look at other locations.

I have time for one telepathic question.
This one just came in: "Mish, what about Naples Florida?"
Hmmm. Good Question.

The Naples Sun Times is asking Sellers, are you ready for the news?

In February 2006 there were 5,417 single family homes listed for sale in the Sunshine Multiple Listing Service (MLS) of the Naples Area Board of Realtors, of which 204 sold. There were 5, 289 condos/coops for sale, of which 179 sold.

Let's do the math: 5,417 plus 5,289 equals 10,706. Divide that by 383, which is the number of homes that sold (204 plus 179). What do you get? 27.95? That means that in February there was a 28-month supply of homes for sale. In other words, if no other homes came on the market, it would take 28 months for all homes listed for sale to be sold.

What is the likelihood that no more homes will come on the market? And these figures don't reflect homes sold or offered for sale not listed on the MLS.

Naples, you have a big, big problem.
In fact, there are inventory problems nearly everywhere you look.

Mike Shedlock / Mish
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/