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Thursday, June 30, 2005 2:20 PM


Mysterious Gold Order


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Gold traders are talking about a Mysterious Gold Order

Well perhaps it is mysterious but it is not an "Order".
The facts in the article are slightly wrong as well.
My source at Alaron shows slightly over 26,000 August 445 calls (not 450 calls as the article states).

That is indeed a huge number. The thing to remember about August gold calls is that they expire in July. In fact, those calls expire 26 days from today, June 20th. Assuming my math is correct they expire on July 25th.

In my opinion 445 is likely to serve as a CAP on gold prices unless gold can convincingly break up thru that range. I suppose it would be ironic if gold blasts off just as soon as those calls expire.

Perhaps someone was making a bet the FED would change its language today. If so, that bet failed.

From a seasonality standpoint, I believe those calls expire just a tad early for the normal August rally. OTOH, if gold can get a strong rally going in the meantime, the seller of those calls is going to be sweating big. Don't count on it.

Mike Shedlock / Mish
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

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