Manufacturing ISM Highest Since June; Expiring Business Tax Credits Explain Why; Enjoy it While You Can As US Decoupling Won't Last

The Institute for Supply Management released the December 2011 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

"The PMI registered 53.9 percent, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from November's reading of 52.7 percent, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 29th consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased 0.9 percentage point from November to 57.6 percent, reflecting the third consecutive month of growth after three months of contraction. Prices of raw materials continued to decrease for the third consecutive month, with the Prices Index registering 47.5 percent, which is 2.5 percentage points higher than the November reading of 45 percent. Manufacturing is finishing out the year on a positive note, with new orders, production and employment all growing in December at faster rates than in November, and with an optimistic view toward the beginning of 2012 as reflected by the panel in this month's survey."

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE DECEMBER 2011
Index	Series Index Sep	Series Index Aug	%age Point Change	Direction	Rate of Change	Trend* (Months)
PMI	53.9	52.7	+1.2	Growing	Faster	29
New Orders	57.6	56.7	+0.9	Growing	Faster	3
Production	59.9	56.6	+3.3	Growing	Faster	4
Employment	55.1	51.8	+3.3	Growing	Faster	27
Supplier Deliveries	49.9	49.9	+0.0	Growing	Same	2
Inventories	47.1	48.3	-1.2	Contracting	Faster	3
Customers' Inventories	42.5	50.0	-7.5	Too Low	From Unchanged	1
Prices	47.5	45.0	+2.5	Decreasing	Slower	3
Backlog of Orders	48.0	45.0	+3.0	Contracting	Slower	7
Exports	53.0	52.0	+1.0	Growing	Faster	2
Imports	54.0	49.0	+5.0	Growing	From Contracting	1
OVERALL ECONOMY				Growing	Faster	31
Manufacturing Sector				Growing	Faster	29

Expiring Business Tax Credits Partially Responsible

Looking for an explanation for the rise in December? I have one (and was aware of a likely jump in PMI in advance): 2011 Expiring Business Tax Incentives

Expiring Business Tax Incentives

1. 100% Bonus Depreciation – The bonus depreciation deduction for qualifying property placed into service after September 8, 2010 and through 2011 was increased to 100%. Once the incentive expires the depreciation rate reverts back to 50% bonus depreciation.
   
2. Self-Employment Tax Reduction – In 2011, the self-employment tax was reduced on a temporary basis. Individuals who are self-employed only need to pay a Social Security tax of 10.4% (reduced from 12.4%) and 2.9% Medicare tax on qualifying income. Self-employed individuals can also take a deduction for the 6.2% employer’s share of Social Security with a 1.4% employer’s share of Medicare as an above-the-line deduction.
   
3. Section 179d Depreciation Provisions - The increase in expensing limits under Section 179d for 2011 at $500,000/$2,000,000 (equipment/property) will be phased out at the end of 2011. In 2012, the rates will reduce to $125,000/$500,000 (equipment/property) until December 31, 2012..
   
4. 15 Year Straight Line Depreciation – This allows property owners and lessees to depreciate qualifying improvements to commercial office spaces, as well as restaurant leasehold improvements and new restaurant development.
   
5. Enhanced Charitable Deductions. This tax credit allows C-Corporations the opportunity to claim an enhanced charitable deduction for qualified computer contributions, book inventories to school and food contributions to food depositories.
   
6. Employer Wage Credit for Active Military Reservists – This tax credit provides eligible small businesses (companies with 50 or fewer employees) with a credit against the company’s income tax liability for a taxable year in an amount equal to 20% of the sum of the wage payments made to activated military reservists..
   
7. New Markets Tax Credit – This tax credit offers a 39% credit on an equity investment to a Community Development Entity (CDE) that is claimed over a 7 year compliance period. The CDE must then make a Qualified Equity Investment or loan to a Qualified Business in a Qualified Low Income Community (LICs). Most commercial and mixed-use real estate development located in LICs are considered Qualified Businesses. The credit is designed to encourage investment in LICs that traditionally have limited access to debt and other sources of investment income.
   
8. Credit for Construction of New Energy Efficient Homes - This tax credit provides an eligible contractor which constructs a qualified new energy efficient home a credit of up to $2,000 per home. The credit is available for all new homes, including manufactured homes constructed in accordance with the Federal Manufactured Homes Construction and Safety Standards.
   
9. Energy Efficient Appliance Credit. This tax credit is available to companies that manufacture or produce qualifying models of refrigerators, dishwashers and washers/dryers. The credit is available for models produced in 2008, 2009, and 2010. The amount of the credit is dependent on the efficiency of the model and date the appliance was manufactured.
   
10. Alternative Fuel Vehicle Refueling Property Credit. This tax credit provides a 30% credit of the cost of any alternative fuel vehicle refueling property placed into service in 2011 (not including hydrogen stations). The credit is limited to $30,000 per location for commercial clean fuel property, and $1,000 per location for residential clean fuel property.
    

Some of the above incentives are minor but others likely had a major impact.

Think manufactures did not bring massive amounts of production forward to take advantage of these expiring credits?

Enjoy it While You Can As US Decoupling Won't Last

Manufacturers are producing at an unsustainable rate. The global economy is rapidly cooling led by Europe, Asia, and Australia. That is a lot of downside leadership.

Please note that Eurozone Manufacturing Contracts 5th Straight Month; New Orders Fall Faster than Output

The US will not decouple this year as noted in Major Slowdown in Global Trade Coming Up; Think the U.S., China, Germany, or U.K. will Be Immune?

Expiring tax incentives provided a nice, but unsustainable pop in manufacturing. Notice how prices and backlog of orders did not follow.

Regardless of how much tax credits affected the ISM numbers, the global slowdown will take a toll on US manufacturing.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Major Slowdown in Global Trade Coming Up; Think the U.S., China, Germany, or U.K. will Be Immune?

Starting with events in the U.K., the Eurozone, and then on to China and Japan, this post will tie together various idea all suggesting a major slowdown in global trade is on the way.

U.K. Retailers Squeezed to Extinction

Sales reports from retail associations are subject to spin in any direction depending on whether their motive is positive to encourage shopping because "everyone else is", or negative, hoping to get tax breaks or other concessions from politicians.

In this case, the director of the UK's retail federation says retailers face being "squeezed to extinction". Given several retail bankruptcies and more expected, the story rings true.

Please consider Retailers face being "squeezed to extinction"

As many as 40,000 are expected to lose their jobs, with more forced to work on reduced hours, as the full force of the consumer slowdown starts to makes its effects felt on the high street.

After the collapse of Barratts Priceless, the shoe chain, Hawkin's Bazaar, the toy shop and D2 Jeans last week, a clutch of other names are expected to go to the wall, said Stephen Robertson, the director general of the British Retail Consortium.

"This feels, talking to retailers, that there is more pressure than there was back in 2008. Back then there had been a relatively good run up until that point, and sales were certainly down, but margins were holding up.

"This time, it's not just about the poor sales performance it's about the underlying profitability. We have seen a blizzard of deals and promotions, so gross profit margins will have been punished."

"It might not be an official recession, but we are in a retail recession," he said. Last month De Mello predicted 20,000 retail job losses in 2012, based on a 1pc rise in shop vacancy rates.

"Dear George" Ritual Lies About Price Inflation

Every few months, Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England has been forced to write to Chancellor George Osborne to explain why UK inflation is so much above target.

And every time, Mervyn King has trotted out the same set of excuses, proving the BOE (central bankers in general) do not really care about inflation mandates, they simply do what they want.

For a humorous analysis please consider Inflation: The truth about those Dear George letters

Many cultures have bizarre ceremonies which once had a function but become mere empty rituals. One of Britain’s goes by the name of ‘inflation targeting’.

Every year the Chancellor stands before the House of Commons and in his Budget statement declares he is instructing the Bank of England that consumer price inflation should be two per cent.

He does this in the full knowledge that he has no desire whatsoever that the Bank should actually try to get inflation to two per cent – because that would mean increasing interest rates to a level he thinks might threaten growth.

Every few months the Bank’s Governor, Sir Mervyn King, writes to the Chancellor. His letters say, roughly: ‘Inflation is above target, because we didn’t try to get it to the target, because meeting the target would have been a bad idea.’

Chancellor George Osborne then sends a reply, which amounts to the following: ‘Good. I’m glad you didn’t try to meet the target I set you. You are quite right in thinking that would have been a bad idea.’

The arrangement has become a farce. In fact, during the past 45 months the consumer price index has been below two per cent in only six of them.

UK Price Inflation Peaks, Deflationary Pressures Mount

If Mervyn King hits his inflation target, he will not care much for the reasons why:

1. UK Retailers are in a massive price squeeze, unable to pass on costs
2. Huge numbers of layoffs are coming up
3. UK Manufacturing is in contraction second straight month
4. All of Europe is headed for a nasty, prolonged recession

By the way, the impacts of the above four points on the UK deficit will not be pretty, However, if it's any consolation, I believe UK price inflation peaked in October at 5%.

Official Recession Coming Up

The recession many not be "official" just yet, but it has likely already started with the UK PMI in a second straight month of contraction.

Figures from the seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS PMI recorded a UK manufacturing sector contraction of 47.6 in November; this is the lowest recorded level since June 2009.

Commenting on the report, David Noble, Chief Executive Officer at the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply, said: “It looks like it’s going to be a bleak winter for UK manufacturers with the PMI showing very little to be positive about at the moment. Exports orders, which UK manufacturers are increasingly dependent on, continue to decline as the Eurozone crisis impacts demand in US and Asia as well as Europe.

Slowdown in European Trade Coming Up

In general, Eurozone nations are in deep trouble because of tax hikes and various austerity measures. Indeed, all of Europe is in trouble, even the non-eurozone countries like the UK and the trade surplus countries like Germany. 

Sampling of Links to Consider

1. Portugal Car Sales Plunge 60% in December, 31% for Entire Year; Spain Car Sales Plunge 17.7% to 1993 Levels
 
2. Eurozone Manufacturing Contracts 5th Straight Month; New Orders Fall Faster than Output
 
3. Promises Go Out the Window as Spain Undertakes Huge Tax Increase Coupled With Biggest Budget Cut in History; Depression in Spain will Worsen
 
4. Explaining Italian Christmas Season Sales (It's Far Worse Than Previously Reported); How Various Austerity Measures Will Affect Spending in 2012; Emails from Italian Readers; Massive European Recession On the Way
 
5. "It's a Mistake To Pursue a United States of Europe" says German Supreme Court Justice in Spiegel Interview ; Interpretation of Interview from Saxo Bank Chief Economist
 
6. French Unemployment Hits 12-Year High (It's Going to Get Much Worse); Sarkozy Outlines Jobs Plan (Mathematically It Can't Work)

Slowdown in Global Trade Coming Up

Any country dependent on European sales is in trouble and that includes China.

In turn, China will need fewer imports of raw materials from places like Australia and Canada. China will also need less technology from Japan and that has Japan worried.

Please see Japan Proposes Nonsensical Deal to China: "I'll Loan You a Nickel if You Loan Me a Nickel"; Japan Worries About Servicing Its Debt for details.

Think the US will Be Immune?

One has to be a major Pollyanna to think the US will be immune from all of this.

I can already show the US has been impacted: China to Withdraw Support for Foreign Investment in Autos; Three Reasons China Will Not Be a Boon to Global Auto Sales

Chinese Regime Change Dynamics

To top it off, a regime change is coming this year in China. It is highly likely China will be a shift away from construction, real estate, and fixed investment as a means of growth and that too will reduce China's needs for commodities from Australia as well as truck equipment from Caterpillar.

For a look at Australia, please consider 4 out of 5 Australians Worry about Debt; New Reality - Owing More on Your Home Than You Own; Shocking Year for Corporate Collapses

This macroeconomic chain-of-events portends a major slowing in global trade with huge worldwide consequences and missed budgets everywhere you look.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Portugal Car Sales Plunge 60% in December, 31% for Entire Year; Spain Car Sales Plunge 17.7% to 1993 Levels

Things are not starting off on a good foot for Portugal or Spain, the two countries where the European sovereign debt crisis is most likely to strike early in 2012.

Portugal Car Sales Plunge 60% in December Compared to Year Ago

Via Google Translate, please consider The sale of passenger cars dropped 31.3% in Portugal in 2011

The sale of passenger cars in Portugal fell to 31.3 percent in 2011 compared with the previous year to sell a total of 153,433 units, reported the Automobile Association of Portugal (ACAP).

This marked reduction was driven by the results of last December, when sales fell 60% over the same month last year.

The market for vehicles, including light commercial vehicles and heavy with cars, registered a contraction of 29.9% over 2011.

Spain Car Sales Plunge 17.7% to 1993 Levels

Also from El Economista via Google Translate, please consider Car sales fell 17.7% in 2011 in Spain, near 1993 levels

Registrations of cars and SUVs in Spain stood at 808,059 units in 2011, resulting in a decrease of 17.7% compared to previous year's figure, according to manufacturers' associations (Anfac) and sellers (Ganvam).

During the last month of last year, deliveries of cars in the Spanish market reached 66,458 units, representing a decrease of 3.6% compared to data recorded in December 2010.

These figures show that 2011 was one of the worst year ever in terms of volume of registrations in Spain and Spanish car market place at levels close to those recorded in 1993 when 792,500 units were delivered.

Channels, the supply of private cars to customers stood at 387,831 units in 2011, representing a cumulative decline of 33.6%, while in December the figure was reduced by 8% to 35,657 units.

Ganvam Anfac and explained that these sales data in the particular channel shows that 48 of every 100 cars sold in Spain during the last year were purchased by individual customers, compared with 60% recorded in 2007.

Both associations noted that the drop in enrollment "has caused a significant drop in tax revenues for the acquisition of vehicles," so that the State has failed to enter EUR 450 million the previous year.

These economies are basket cases already. Tax hikes will make matters much worse.

For details, please see Spain's Budget Minister says "Serious Budget Shortfalls in All 17 Autonomous Regions"; Primer Minister Announces $19.3 Billion Package of Tax Hikes; Cockroaches and the Theory of the Unexpected.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List