Jobs Contract 23rd Straight Month; Unemployment Rate Drop to 10.0%

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the November Employment Report.

The unemployment rate edged down to 10.0 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-11,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. In the prior 3 months, payroll job losses had averaged 135,000 a month. In November, employment fell in construction, manufacturing, and information, while temporary help services and health care added jobs..




Establishment Data



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Highlights

• 11,000 jobs were lost in total vs. 190,000 jobs last month.
• 27,000 construction jobs were lost vs. 62,000 last month.
• 41,000 manufacturing jobs were lost vs. 61,000 last month.
• 58,000 service providing jobs were added vs. 61,000 lost last month.
• 15,000 retail trade jobs were lost vs. 40,000 last month.
• 86,000 professional and business services jobs were added vs. 18,000 added last month.
• 40,000 education and health services jobs were added vs. 45,000 added last month.
• 11,000 leisure and hospitality jobs were lost vs. 37,000 last month.
• 07,000 government jobs were added vs. 0 added last month.

A total of 69,000 goods producing jobs were lost (higher paying jobs). Retail and professional services contributed massively to to the plus side.

Note: some of the above categories overlap as shown in the preceding chart, so do not attempt to total them up.

Index of Aggregate Weekly Hours

Work hours were +.2 to 33.2. Short work weeks contribute to household problems. Moreover, before hiring begins at many places, work weeks will increase.

Birth Death Model Revisions 2008



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Birth Death Model Revisions 2009



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Birth/Death Model Revisions

After the typical in January in which the Birth/Death Model revisions bore some semblance of reality, the Birth/Death numbers remain in deep outer space.

At this point in the cycle birth death numbers should have been massively contracting for months. The BLS is going to keep adding jobs through the entire recession in a complete display of incompetence.

Please note that one cannot subtract or add birth death revisions to the reported totals and get a meaningful answer. One set of numbers is seasonally adjusted the other is not. In the black box the BLS combines the two coming out with a total. The Birth Death numbers influence the overall totals but the math is not as simple as it appears and the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance.

BLS Black Box

For those unfamiliar with the birth/death model, monthly jobs adjustments are made by the BLS based on economic assumptions about the birth and death of businesses (not individuals). Those assumptions are made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle.

The BLS has admitted however, that their model will be wrong at economic turning points. And there is no doubt we are long past an economic turning point.

Here is the pertinent snip from the BLS on Birth/Death Methodology.

• The net birth/death model component figures are unique to each month and exhibit a seasonal pattern that can result in negative adjustments in some months. These models do not attempt to correct for any other potential error sources in the CES estimates such as sampling error or design limitations.
• Note that the net birth/death figures are not seasonally adjusted, and are applied to not seasonally adjusted monthly employment links to determine the final estimate.
• The most significant potential drawback to this or any model-based approach is that time series modeling assumes a predictable continuation of historical patterns and relationships and therefore is likely to have some difficulty producing reliable estimates at economic turning points or during periods when there are sudden changes in trend.

Household Data

In November, both the number of unemployed persons, at 15.4 million, and the unemployment rate, at 10.0 percent, edged down. At the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons was 7.5 million, and the jobless rate was 4.9 percent.

Among the major worker groups, unemployment rates for adult men (10.5 percent), adult women (7.9 percent), teenagers (26.7 percent), whites (9.3 percent), blacks (15.6 percent), and Hispanics (12.7 percent) showed little change in November. The unemployment rate for Asians was 7.3 percent, not seasonally adjusted.

The civilian labor force participation rate was little changed over the month at 65.1 percent. The employment-population ratio continued to decline in October, falling to 58.5 percent.

The number of people working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed in November at 9.2 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

Persons Not in the Labor Force

About 2.3 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in November, an increase of 376,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.

Among the marginally attached, there were 808,000 discouraged workers in October, up from 484,000 a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The other 1.6 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in October had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

Table A-5 Part Time Status



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The chart shows there are 9.28 million people are working part time but want a full time job. A year ago the number was 7.3 million.

Note the trend in part-time work. In a recovery it should be headed down quickly. The reason is employers increase the hours of part-time workers before they start hiring full-time workers.

The key take-away from this series are the millions of workers whose hours will rise before companies start hiring more workers.

Table A-12

Table A-12 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is. Let's take a look



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Grim Statistics

The official unemployment rate is 10.0%. However, if you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

It reflects how unemployment feels to the average Joe on the street. U-6 is 17.2%. Both U-6 and U-3 (the so called "official" unemployment number) are poised to rise further although most likely at a slower pace than earlier this year.

Looking ahead, there is no driver for jobs and states in forced cutback mode are making matters far worse.

Unemployment is likely to continue rising until sometime in 2011.

Table A



Explaining The Drop In Unemployment Rate

Table A explains the drop in the unemployment rate nicely.

Unemployment dropped by .2% even though 11,000 jobs were lost and it should take at least 100,000 jobs just to keep up with demographics. Instead note the drop in the civilian labor force by 98,000.

Moreover, those "not in the labor force dropped rose by 291,000 constituting nearly all of the decline in unemployment.

Finally, in a typical recovery, the participation rate should go up not down. The reason is people hear there is a recovery, hear things are getting better, hear the talk about "green shoots" and think there might be a job if they go looking.

Nonetheless it's the reaction to the data this is important and at least initially we see something new happening today: The stock market is up along with the dollar while treasuries, gold, and silver are all down.

It remains to be seen if this is another one-day-wonder of if this is a reversal of any major trends.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Senator Bunning to Bernanke "You are the definition of a moral hazard. Your Fed has become the Creature From Jekyll Island"

Inquiring minds are listening to Senator Jim Bunning grill Ben Bernanke over the Fed's miserable performance under Bernanke.



Here is a partial transcript but I recommend playing the 13 minute video in entirety.

Alan Greenspan refused to look for bubbles or to do anything other than create them. Likewise it is clear from your statements over the last four years that you failed to spot the housing bubble despite many warnings.

Under your watch every one of the major banks failed or would have failed had you not bailed them out.

After taking over the Fed you did not seen any need for more substantial regulation of derivatives until it was clear that they were headed into the financial meltdown thanks in part to those products.

The Greenspan policy on transparency was to talk a lot, use plenty of numbers, but say nothing. You promised congress more transparency when you came to the job. You promised more transparency when you came begging for TARP. To be fair you have published more information than before but those efforts are inadequate and you still refuse to provide details on the Fed's bailout last year on all the toxic waste you have bought.

Chairman Greenspan sold the Fed's independence to Wall Street on the so called "Greenspan PUT". Whenever Wall Street needed a boost, Alan was there. But you went even farther than that when you bowed to the political pressure of the Bush and Obama Administrations, and turned the Fed into an arm of the Treasury.

Under your watch the "Bernanke PUT" became a bailout for all large financial institutions, including many foreign banks.

And you put the printing presses into overdrive to fund the government's spending and hand out cheap money to your masters on Wall Street.

In short, you are the definition of a moral hazard.

You are repeating the same mistakes as Japan in the 1990's on a much larger scale while sowing the seeds for the next bubble.

The AIG bailout alone is reason enough to send you back to Princeton.

I will do everything I can to stop your nomination and drag out this process as long as I can. We must put an end to your and the Fed's failure and there is no better time than now.

Your Fed has become the creature from Jekyll Island.

It is hard to add to that. Senator Bunning states the facts as they are.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Service Sector ISM Back In Contraction; Stimulus Fades Already

Inquiring minds are reading the November 2009 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in November after two consecutive months of expansion, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

What Respondents Are Saying ...

• "Capital markets remain very tight; lenders are not releasing funds for development projects, limiting expansion." (Accommodation & Food Services)
• "Fourth quarter still looking grim, but potential upturn for Q1 2010." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
• "No one trusts that the recovery is real. Seems everything and everyone is in a holding pattern." (Public Administration)
• "Business is still flat." (Wholesale Trade)
• "U.S. business remains better than 2007 levels, although it's been through personnel and cost reductions that we are now profitable. Business continues to be about 8 percent below 2008 levels." (Real Estate, Rental & Leasing)

Non-Manufacturing ISM History

Is This A Recovery?

Take good look at the chart immediately above. After sloshing around $trillions in bailouts and stimulus packages the NMI could barely get above break-even and topped in September.

New orders are up, but much of that is front-loaded government stimulus efforts. With government spending and reflation efforts by central bankers worldwide, it should not be surprising to see prices rising. Yet, employment is not confirming the pickup in business activity.

Double Dip Recession Warning

Paul Krugman is waking up to a possibility that I think is nearly a given. Please consider Double Dip Warning.

I’ve never been fully committed to the notion that we’re going to have a “double dip” — that the economy will slide back into recession. But it has been clear for a while that it’s a serious possibility, for two reasons. First, a large part of the growth we’ve had has been driven by the stimulus — but the stimulus has already had its maximum impact on the growth of GDP, will hit its maximum impact on the level of GDP in the middle of next year, and then will begin to fade out. Second, the rise in manufacturing production is to a large extent an inventory bounce — and this, too, will fade out in the quarters ahead.

I’d be more sanguine about all of this if there were any indications that private, final demand is taking off — consumers, business investment, whatever. But I haven’t seen anything suggesting that sort of thing.

The chances of a relapse into recession seem to be rising.

Stimulus Fades

Krugman mentioned a couple of articles that show the fading effects of fiscal stimulus. Please consider Job Cuts Loom as Stimulus Fades

Highway-construction companies around the country, having completed the mostly small projects paid for by the federal economic-stimulus package, are starting to see their business run aground, an ominous sign for the nation's weak employment picture.

Tim Word, vice president of Dean Word Co., a heavy-construction company in New Braunfels, Texas, said his income is now coming mostly from projects that are winding up. He said that in normal times he has about $100 million of signed contracts in hand. But that number has fallen to $30 million, and the pipeline is empty. In the past two years, his work force has shrunk nearly 40% to 260 from 420.

"Having something to bid on is the lifeblood of the industry, and it's running out," said Mr. Word. He isn't sure what will happen next year without new projects. "There's no pavement fairy that's going to help."

No Economic Fairies

Not only are there no pavement fairies, there are no fairies of any kind. The idea that Keynesian work projects can stimulate the economy back to a lasting recovery is loony. Japan proved that for two decades, but Keynesian clowns still insist it's just a matter of throwing more money around until something good happens.

Nothing good happened in Japan from Quantitative Easing or Keynesian stimulus efforts and nothing good will happen in the US from them either. The problem is debt and the cure is paying off that debt, not going deeper into it.

In the meantime prepare for the double-dip or an economic flatline at best because that is how the signs are pointing.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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