City of Houston is Bankrupt (So are California, Oregon, and Pension Plans in General)

Houston, we have a problem. We are bankrupt.

That is the finding of Bob Lemer, CPA, Retired Partner at Ernst & Young; Aubrey M. Farb, CPA, Retired Partner at Grant Thornton; and Tom Roberts, CPA, Retired Partner at Fitts Roberts.

Cover Letter

October 22, 2009
Name, Title and Address [see list below]
Subject: Finances of the City of Houston
Dear : [see list below]

Enclosed is our partial analysis of the very serious financial situation at the City of Houston. We would be derelict if we failed to share this financial analysis with you. This financial heads up will assist you in meeting your fiduciary responsibilities to Houston voters, taxpayers, readers, viewers or investors---as the case may be.

We feel a public discussion of the City’s financial situation is necessary and firmly believe that addressing the City’s financial condition is in the best interest of the Houston economy and Houston taxpayers. We believe the sooner the City of Houston addresses the financial shortfall the better.

Please bear in mind that the Houston City elections are on November 3, 2009, with early voting having commenced on October 19, 2009. Recent history has shown a large portion of voting occurs during early voting.

We trust that the attached article is of significant assistance to you.
We may be reached at boblemer@sbcglobal.net.

The above was sent to:

City of Houston---Incumbent Mayor, City Controller, and City Council Members
City of Houston—Non-Incumbent City Candidates
Greater Houston Partnership---Board Members
Houston Chronicle---Editorial Board Members
Houston TV Stations---CEOs
Houston Business Journal---Editor
Houston Community Newspapers-Editor
Houston Press-Editor
Municipal Bond Rating Agencies---CEOs
Wall Street Journal---Editor
Barron’s-Editor
Investor’s Business Daily-Editor
USA Today-Editor
Texas Monthly---Executive Editor
Deloitte & Touche LLP---Houston and New York

Executive Summary

City of Houston
Disturbing Financial Facts---October 2009
By: Bob Lemer, Aubrey M. Farb and Tom Roberts

The City of Houston is financially broke and it appears that the mayor who takes office in January 2010 may have to captain the City through bankruptcy procedures.
The City’s unrestricted assets were $1.2 billion short of the already recorded
corresponding liabilities these assets were needed to pay as of fiscal year end June 30, 2008,according to the City’s latest publicly available audited Comprehensive Annual Financial Report (CAFR). The $1.2 billion shortfall was a result of operating losses totaling $1.5 billion for fiscal years 2004-2008, applying the full accrual basis of accounting used in the private sector.

Apparently the City has no idea as to what has transpired financially since June 30, 2008 or will transpire this fiscal year ending June 30, 2010, on the full accrual basis of accounting. But even on the modified accrual basis of accounting (essentially cash basis) followed by the City and all other municipalities, the $236.8 million fund balance in the City’s general fund as of July 1, 2009 (the beginning of this current fiscal year) would not exist except for the City having deposited the proceeds of pension obligation bonds into the City’s general fund instead of depositing them in their legally required immediate destination, the pension plans’ bank accounts.

The City is in this dangerous financial position because its total spending since fiscal year 2003 has greatly outstripped its total revenues in that period. And the rate of growth in the City’s total revenues since 2003 has, in turn, greatly outstripped the City’s rate of growth in population plus inflation.

Thus the City’s problems are a result of greatly overspending and not a result of
insufficient revenues. All of this occurred before the current severe recession. Now the City has the added burden of the recession.

The City is in a real financial dilemma, because now its two principal sources of general fund revenues are in trouble---sales taxes and property taxes. Sales tax revenues already are dropping significantly and property tax revenues will commence dropping at an even more rapid rate after the next annual appraisal and assessment process. And the City will have to go to the voters for any contemplated rate increases in either the sales tax rate or the portion of the property tax rate allocable to operations.

It appears to us that there may be no viable alternative to bankruptcy proceedings and thereby positioning the City to regain control over its overspending, through addressing structural spending problems such as overstaffing and overly generous employee benefits.

Pension Plans and Government Salaries To Blame

According to the report, pension plans and government salaries are at the heart of the matter. Here are a few select details.

Detailed Findings and Observations

1. The City incurred operating losses (“Change In Net Assets”) totaling approximately $1.5 billion for the five fiscal years ended 6/30/08--- per the latest (fiscal year 2008) publicly available audited Comprehensive Annual Financial Report (CAFR), page 199:

In Thousands
a. (312,790)
b. (531,465)
c. (131,893)
d. (221,452)
e. (281,556)
TOTAL (1,479,156) ---or--- $1.5 BILLION

2. The City’s deficiency in unrestricted assets [“Unrestricted (deficit)”] was $1.2 BILLION ($1,174,429 thousands) at June 30, 2008--- per 2008 CAFR, page 15. In other words, the City’s unrestricted assets were approximately $1.2 billion less than the already recorded liabilities that they will be required to satisfy.

3. The $1.2 billion deficiency in unrestricted assets as of June 30, 2008 (which was created essentially during fiscal years 2004-2008-see item 1) was basically financed, per page 15 of the 2008 CAFR, by:
(a) the $347,728,000 collateralized note payable to the municipal employees’
pension trust;
(b) the $643,413,000 combined accrued liabilities to the employees’ pension
trusts (municipal-$285,462,000, police officers’-$318,567,000, and firefighters’-$39,384,000);
(c) the $219,755,000 pension obligation bonds payable;
(d) the $272,941,000 accrued liability for other post employment benefits-----less, per pages 17 and 74 of the 2003 CAFR,
(d) the $54,395,000 net accrued liabilities to the employees’ pension trusts at June 30, 2003 (municipal-$92,386,000, police officers’-$19,221,000, and firefighters’-asset of $57,212,000).

4. Thus, as of June 30, 2008, the City’s elected officials essentially had transferred financial ownership of the City from the taxpayers to the City’s employees, about 43.7% of who do not live in the City, according to documentation we have received from the City’s human resources department. Very troubling, 63.3% of first responders (police officers and firefighters) do not live in the City, versus just 30.0% of civilian employees, according to the City’s human resources department.

5. The City’s deficiency in unrestricted assets is so severe that in their yet to be completed audit for fiscal year 2009 the City’s independent auditors apparently will have to address the audit reporting issue as to whether the City was a “going concern” as of June 30, 2009.

6. Apparently the City has no idea yet as to what its operating loss (“change in net assets”) was for the fiscal year just ended June 30, 2009 or what its deficiency in unrestricted assets was at June 30, 2009, and has no idea as to what is in store fiscally for fiscal year 2010. That is because the City does not keep its books on the full accrual basis of accounting (fully accruing its assets and liabilities) but once a year, via the audited Comprehensive Annual Financial Report (CAFR). And the CAFR cannot be completed until the (nearly always very substantial) annual audit adjustments are booked.

....

17. For example, Exhibit B demonstrates how it was possible for the City to actually show an audited surplus of $19,891,000 from operations in the general fund (which is the focus of the annual budget and the MFOR) for fiscal year 2008 when, in reality, the City had an audited Citywide operations deficit of $281,556,000 for fiscal year 2008.

18. Exhibit B is difficult to comprehend for a person not trained in governmental accounting, even for a CPA. But the two most significant reasons for the difference between the $19,891,000 general fund surplus from 2008 operations and the $281,556,000 deficit from 2008 Citywide operations are: (a) the ever-growing accrued liabilities to employees for pension plans and other post retirement benefits; and (b) the commenced practice of financing current pension plan expenses with backend loaded pension obligation long-term bonds.

19. Once one understands Exhibit B, or at least items 18(a) and 18(b), it becomes obvious that the City’s fiscal 2010 general fund budget is an illusion, for two reasons. First, it is calculated on the modified accrual basis of accounting (essentially cash basis) and therefore ignores the ever-growing and enormous accrued liabilities for employee pensions and other post retirement benefits. Secondly, it is dependent upon continued payment of some of the pension expenses with issuance of long-term backend loaded pension obligation bonds.

23. At June 30, 2008 (date of the City’s last audited financial statements), the City’s total Citywide debt per capita of $5,338 was over twice the $2,528 debt per capita of the now bankrupt State of California.

Inquiring minds may wish to download the entire Lemer/Farb/Roberts assessment of City of Houston Finances document from Scribd.

I agree with the findings of Bob Lemer, Aubrey M. Farb, and Tom Roberts. Any attempts to balance this on the backs of taxpayers is not viable. Houston should declare bankruptcy and seek to null and void the contracts of city workers including police and fireman.

California Is Bankrupt Too

Interesting, I note in point 23 that the authors of this report have concluded California is bankrupt. Of course I agree with that assessment as well. Unfortunately there is no provisions for states to declare bankruptcy.

What About Oregon?

Inquiring minds are reading Climbing PERS expenses face Oregon pension board, agency budget writers.

The cost of Oregon's Public Employees Retirement System is about to skyrocket to budget-busting levels.

As a result of PERS' $17 billion investment loss in 2008, every state agency, municipality and school district that participates in the system is staring at an average 50 percent increase in the base rates PERS charges to fund their employees' retirement benefits in 2011 and 2012.

That's not a doomsday scenario. Unless the pension fund's board changes its rate-setting rules, or its investment portfolio generates a 26 percent return in 2009, these rate increases are guaranteed. What does that mean to you? Fewer teachers, cops and firefighters. Less of every service that government provides. Higher fees and taxes. Perhaps all of the above.

The base rate that public agencies pay to support employees' retirement benefits could double in the next five years, according to the PERS actuary, Mercer Inc. If rates reach that level, the retirement system will gobble one quarter of every tax dollar that goes into a public agency to support payrolls.

Oregon isn't alone.

Public pensions nationwide are in crisis mode, and state Treasurer Ben Westlund points out that Oregon's pension system is still better funded than most. PERS officials also note that a major recovery in the stock market could alleviate, or even eliminate, the pain. Indeed, the system's investment portfolio has already bounced back 14 percent this year.

But here's the rub: Even if the pension system's investments return an average 10.5 percent annually for the next three years - their historical average - PERS rates will still increase to 21 percent of payroll in July 2013, according to Mercer's modeling.

If, in a slower growth scenario, investment returns are closer to their 10-year average of 4.5 percent, all bets are off. PERS' executive director, Paul Cleary, recently told the citizens board that oversees investment of the $50 billion pension fund that if 4.5 percent is the new normal, "our business model doesn't work."

Pension System Busted Country Wide

It is highly likely that nearly every pension plan in the country is busted. The solution is for every city and municipality in a predicament to "pull a Vallejo" and declare bankruptcy. Please see Judge Rules Vallejo Can Void Union Contracts for details.

Deficiencies cannot be met on the backs of taxpayers. Enough is enough. It's time to end every massively underfunded public defined benefit plan in the country, by force if necessary (bankruptcy), unless unions agree to major concessions that would make the plans viable without raising taxes one cent.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Creative Destruction And The Rising Tide of IT Pay Cuts

A rising tide of IT professionals is seeing its annual compensation decline. CIO is asking IT Pay Cuts: Are You Next?

As more companies enforce across-the-board pay cuts and unpaid furloughs, a rising tide of IT professionals is seeing its annual compensation decline and must decide whether to switch employers as a result.

Among the companies that have instituted broad pay cuts this year are National Public Radio, the New York Times, Nucor and the Georgia State government. These organizations are slashing the pay of even their most in-demand IT staff, such as Web developers, information security specialists, enterprise resource planning gurus and IT architects.

For example, one Indiana firm eliminated annual bonuses at the end of 2008 for all of its employees, including the IT staff. A few months later, all employees making more than $90,000 saw their salaries cut by 10%, which impacted two IT managers. Both IT managers left the firm within a few months of the10% pay cut, a knowledgeable source said.

IDG, the parent company of Network World, instituted across-the-board pay cuts of 10% in May. Rob Rebecchi, Manager of Technology Support Services for IDG, says his group of five analysts, who handle tech support calls for the Framingham, Mass., publishing firm, was affected by the pay cut.

Overall, IT pay and perks continues to shrink in 2009. A Janco Associates survey released in June found that total compensation for IT professionals fell an average of 19% between January 2008 and June 2009.

Another factor impacting demand for IT professionals is the fact that many high-tech workers are delaying their retirement or re-entering the workforce post retirement.

"There is now a surplus of seasoned IT professionals available. For the second time in less than 10 years, retirements are being put off because of the downturn in the stock market and the resultant reduction in savings available to support IT professionals as they retire," Janco's report reads. "Added to this is an influx of retirees looking to get back into the job market due to the massive reduction in their investment portfolio."

Boomer Retirement

There is much more in the article including more links. Here is one of them pointing to a misdiagnosed analysis of the situation as it looked in July of 2007.

Please consider IT jobs get hot as baby boomers retire.

While talent pool shrinks, job-seeking IT professionals have the upper hand.

IT professionals could use the inevitable retirement of millions of baby boomers to get higher salaries, better benefits and long-term job security, according to Forrester Research, but at the same time, IT managers will face a skills shortage that could hinder IT's ability to support a business.

With an estimated 25 million Americans set to retire by 2020 across all industries, Forrester Research says IT job seekers will have the upper hand when dealing with hiring managers eager to replenish lost expertise. According to Robert Half Technology's survey of about 1,400 CIOs some 16% planned to hire IT professionals during the first quarter of this year -- a number that represents the largest hiring increase since the fourth quarter of 2001.

"The IT job market is hot once again. High demand for constrained pool has shifted the leverage to candidates," the Forrester report reads

"It professionals have more options and are pickier in their employment choices. Because there is great demand, IT workers, especially those with highly sought after skills, require extra wooing from IT leaders," Forrester says.

Macro Picture Not Pretty

Forrester completely missed the macro call.

Boomers are delaying retirement, competition for jobs is intense, companies are slashing perks and even salaries.

Please Consider

• Over 65 And Needing A Job; Interview Tips For Everyone
• PhD's In Distress and the Unsustainable Cost of Education

Extreme Networks replaces CEO, lays off 70

Perusing around the Network World site I quickly discovered this October 23, 2009 article hot off the presses: Extreme Networks replaces CEO, lays off 70

Ethernet switch vendor Extreme Networks is replacing its CEO and laying off 70 employees in an effort to quickly improve the company's bottom line and set it up to run profitably with lower revenues.

CEO Mark Canepa, who took the position in 2006, has resigned, but will remain for a short period to help recently hired CFO Bob Corey transition to Acting CEO. The company is seeking a permanent replacement. Canepa receives $639,354 severance.

As part of the restructuring, the company also eliminated the job of chief counsel, getting rid of Robert Schlossman, and replacing him with Vice Presideint Diane Honda, according to a filing this week with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Judging from the company Web site, the head of human resources and head software developer are also gone.

The company didn't say where the 70 layoffs would come, but it represents about 9% of Extreme's workforce.

The company's stock prices hit a low of close to a dollar in March, struggled back to just over $3 last month then dipped to about $2.25 over the past weeks.

"They're in a tough spot," says Zeus Kerravala, an analyst with Yankee group. "This is a company that's truly having a hard time finding its way." He says the company is smaller than its main competitors, HP, IBM, Cisco, Juniper and Brocade (which has reportedly put itself up for sale).

"When you look at all the network vendors out there, what problem is it that Extreme is trying to solve that isn't being solved by somebody else?" Kerravala says. "If you look at data centers, all the emphasis is on converged fabric, and they just don't have a roadmap to get there. I think they'll go the route of Enterasys. They'll get smaller and smaller and continue to exist off their installed base until their assets get acquired by somebody else."

Shrinking To Zero

Read that last paragraph carefully. "Extreme Networks will get smaller and smaller and continue to exist off their installed base until their assets get acquired by somebody else."

That is a general condition among the smaller players, not specific to Extreme Networks.

To paraphrase Janice Joplin ...

Zero's just another word for nothin' left to lose
Nothin', don't mean nothin' hon' if it ain't free, no no

Alarm Bells For Brocade?

Alarm bells have to be going off for Brocade employees given this headline - For sale: Cisco data center rival Brocade.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Brocade has enlisted Qatalyst Group to shop the company around. Likely suitors are HP and Oracle, among others, the WSJ reports.

HP, Oracle and Brocade all declined comment for the WSJ story Network Specialist Brocade Up for Sale. Brocade, which told Network World it does not comment on "rumor or speculation," has a market cap of $3 billion. HP also declined to comment to us on the speculation.

Turmoil In Industry

Inquiring minds interested in technology are listening to Denise Dubie of Network World tackle the question What would a Brocade sale mean?

The seven minute podcast is quite interesting as it contains a discussion involving a veritable who's who in the storage industry including IBM, EMC, Cisco, Oracle, Network Appliance, QLogic, Hewlett Packard, and Emulex.

That was a blast from the past for me for sure.

Consolidation Will Cost Jobs

The one question not addressed is what it would mean for jobs. The answer should be clear. Mergers and buyouts are going to cost jobs.

Please consider a slideshow of IT's Most Notable Layoffs 2009

The companies include Sun, Polycom, Sonus, Cisco, Nokia, Citrix, IBM, Sprint, Intel, Microsoft, Sophos, Ericsson, Logitech, Motorola, Lenova, and EMC.

I am quite impressed with the depth of the content at Network World. Those in the IT business (or those following it) may wish to bookmark the previous link.

20 Most Useful Career Sites For IT Professionals

CIO states "A rising tide of IT professionals is seeing its annual compensation decline and must decide whether to switch employers as a result."

I ask "go where?" Even if one could land another job, that person would be low on the totem pole constantly worrying when and if "last hired, first fired" was about to hit.

Nonetheless, those out of a job need to know where to look and even some with a job may be seeking better opportunities.

For those out of a job or looking to switch, Network World has a nice slideshow of the 20 most useful career sites for IT professionals which goes far beyond the obvious Monster, CareerBuilder and HotJobs sites.

Creative Destruction

Layoffs were the story in 2008-2009. Mergers, consolidations, global wage arbitrage, outsourcing, and even bankruptcies will combine to pressure IT salaries and benefits in 2010.

To understand more about what is happening and why please see Creative Destruction

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Twelve Reasons For A Job Loss Recovery

I have been talking about the Job Loss Recovery for quite some time. Here are a few recent examples.

July 14: Bernanke Sees Chance of Jobless Recovery

Given that the Fed's first mission is to delay, confuse, hope, and otherwise attempt to buy time while engaging in wishful thinking along the way, that Bernanke is willing to admit this may be a jobless recovery is a sign that things will likely be at least that bad. In other words, prepare for a job loss recovery.

August 3: Thoughts On The "Recoveryless Recovery"

Most know that I am in favor of an "L shaped recession", but that definition includes a "WW" or even a "WWW" where the economy slips in and out of recession for a decade, as happened in Japan.

August 6: Dismal Unemployment Situation In Chart Form

Job Loss Recovery



The last three recessions are unlike the eight preceding recessions. For numerous reasons described below we are heading for another job loss recovery.

Job Loss Recovery Detail



click on chart for sharper image

If the pattern holds, unemployment will rise until 2011 or beyond.

So while everyone is tooting horns and cheering the end of the end of the recession before it has even ended, those graphs and comments from Bernanke himself will put the pending job loss Recovery into better perspective.

What is bringing this idea to the forefront now is all the enthusiasm over what is destined to be the weakest recovery ever.

Others seem to be catching on.

Rebounding Economy Shedding Jobs

Please consider Experts see rebounding economy shedding jobs.

Forget a jobless recovery. The economy may be entering a recovery with job losses.

Third-quarter estimates this week are expected to show that the economy grew for the first time since the quarter ending in June 2008. Despite the estimated 3 percent expansion and a stock market that has been on a tear since March, hundreds of thousands of people are still being laid off each month.

Eight million jobs have been lost nationwide since the recession began two years ago, and by some measures workers face the worst job market since the Depression. The average laid-off worker has been without a job for 61/2 months, a post-World War II record. Many of those workers will never recover financially.

California's hole, deepened by a state budget mess and volatile tax system, is far worse: Unemployment is at

12.2 percent, third highest in the nation; and adding discouraged and part-time workers puts it over 20 percent.

"It's not even a jobless recovery; it's a recovery with more job losses," said UCLA economist Lee Ohanian. "The idea of having essentially no net job creation after a remarkably severe recession is a real pathology for the U.S. economy."

'Painfully weak' job growth

Top White House economist Christina Romer of UC Berkeley told Congress on Thursday that employment growth could remain "painfully weak" through next year, and that the largest effect from the $787 billion stimulus enacted in February, mainly aid to states, is past. By mid-2010, she said, the stimulus will no longer contribute to growth.

Alarms are ringing at the White House and in Congress. But with a mind-boggling $1.4 trillion deficit this year, Democrats have used up their bullets. The word stimulus has such a bad connotation that the term has been banished from new efforts to goose the economy and help workers

Employment mystery

Economists are puzzled as to why job growth has slowed, citing everything from higher health care costs, to higher productivity, to Chinese currency manipulation.

"The answer is, we don't know," said Tim Bartik, a liberal economist with the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research in Michigan who is proposing a tax credit for employers who hire new workers.

There Is No Mystery

Of course we know why job growth has slowed. Here are 12 good reasons.

1. We consumed more than we produced for a decade. Consumers are deep in debt and need to take care of their balance sheets.

2. We built enough houses for 15 years in a 5 year window.

3. People thought home prices would rise forever and borrowed against their homes. They are now underwater and cannot sell or move.

4. There is rampant overcapacity everywhere. We do not need any more Walmarts, Pizza huts, nail salons, Targets, Home Depots, Lowes, gas stations, grocery stores, or anything else.

5. Global wage arbitrage and outsourcing.

6. Boomers heading into retirement are scared half to death. They will not be spending or traveling as much as they thought. Indeed they will be attempting to downsize their lifestyle.

7. Attitudes everywhere have changed. People have finally caught on to the idea that home prices do not always go up. Businesses have caught on to the idea that home prices and commercial real estate does not always go up. Thus banks have tightened lending standards and consumers are reluctant to borrow.

8. "Frugality is the New Reality". Here is a Search for the word "frugality" in this blog.

9. Misguided federal tax policy. The administration plans to raise taxes on the wealthy. On top of that the health care plan is going to be very costly for small businesses. Thus the administration has inadvertently given small businesses two more reasons not to hire. Instead the administration should be slashing corporate tax rates.

10. Government Pension Plans. States are raising property taxes to help fund pension plans that have blown up. This is a drain on the economy. These plans need to be killed. Please see California Treasurer Spanks Legislature Over Pension Reform And Reckless Spending for an interesting rant about the pension mess in California. Most states are in the same boat, although California is the worst of the lot.

11. Stimulus Spending. Japan has already proven that Keynesian and Monetarist solutions cannot and do not work, yet we try anyway. Please see Will Stimulus Take Hold? for details.

12. Deficit spending in general. Spending what you don't have and cannot afford never solves anything. We can no longer afford to be the word's policeman but still attempt to do so at enormous cost. Indeed, there are many things we cannot afford and do anyway. As a result, interest on the national debt is soaring, the dollar is weakening, and this is drain on the real economy regardless of what the stock market thinks about it.

Tax Credits And Other Bad Ideas

Giving tax credits for hiring cannot possibly accomplish anything worthwhile. Businesses are not likely to take on needless expense just for a tax credit. They will just hire who they were going to hire anyway.

Of course the might be exceptions. For example: Give me a big tax credit and I will hire my wife. Our pre-tax household income would not change one iota but our after-tax income would change by the amount of the tax credit. While this would be worthwhile to me, it does not seem to be an effective way to stimulate the overall economy.

Returning to the article for another ill-advised solution....

University of Maryland economist Peter Morici said the administration's efforts to restore growth by directing spending to such things as alternative energy are too expensive for the number of jobs created and ignore larger problems in the economy.

"You can't grow with a huge trade deficit," Morici said. "If you don't revalue the Chinese yuan against the dollar you can't get out of this mess, and if you don't do something about oil imports you can't get out of this mess. Industrial policies won't fix it."

Morici is correct about the Obama Administrations misguided energy plan. However he is wrong about the trade deficit.

According to Rothbard "More nonsense has been written about balances of payments than about virtually any other aspect of economics."

Inquiring minds are reading Does the widening US trade deficit pose a threat to the economy? by Frank Shostak.

Most economists are of the view that the ever-growing US trade deficit and the subsequent expanding foreign debt pose a threat to the well-being of Americans. What is then required, so it is held, is to set in motion policies that will help curtail the widening trade imbalances between the United States and the rest of the world. Focusing on the trade deficit as the supposedly major problem of the US economy only diverts the attention from the real culprit, which is the US central bank.

What matters for the process of wealth formation is the flow of real savings. The balance of payments statement doesn't provide such information. Consequently, it is not possible to determine the implications of a given state of the current account on the well-being of Americans without information regarding the state of the flow of real savings. Therefore various pessimistic assessments regarding the US economy, which are based on the state of the balance of payments, are likely to be without much foundation.

For a complete rebuttal to the trade deficit myth, please read Shostak's article in entirety.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List