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Friday, June 03, 2011 3:16 AM


Case-Shiller Nominal and Real Housing Declines Since Peak; Home Prices Best in 25 Years, Better Prices Still Coming


Here are some charts showing nominal and real (CPI inflation-adjusted) housing declines in 20 Case-Shiller metro areas. Charts are grouped by 10 least expensive and 10 most expensive areas. Additional tables show housing declines from the peak. An explanation follows the charts.

Charts and tables are courtesy of "TC".

Case-Shiller Nominal Price History 10 Least Expensive Metro Areas



click on any chart or table for a sharper image

Case-Shiller Nominal Price History 10 Most Expensive Metro Areas



Case-Shiller Nominal Price Declines Since Peak


Case-Shiller "Real" Price History 10 Least Expensive Metro Areas



Case-Shiller "Real" Price History 10 Most Expensive Metro Areas



Case-Shiller "Real" Price Declines Since Peak



TC writes ...

Mish, I've attached several Case-Shiller graphs based upon most recent Case-Shiller data.

The charts show that all 20 metros are down from the peak prices between -10.7% (Dallas) and -58.6% (Las Vegas). Note that 13 of 20 cities tracked are presently at the lowest point in the cycle, while 7 cities are presently higher than their early 2009 low.

Of the 7 cities that are higher, San Francisco leads the way at +10.3% (+$43,461). However, San Francisco it still an amazing -40.6% (-$317,790) below peak prices.

Of particular interest is the "Price Level" column which displays how far back prices have reverted. For example, you can see that Atlanta has reverted back to April 1999 prices (and keep in mind this is nominal!). Three-fourths of the US is at the lowest point in the cycle, while 1/4 is up modestly and most likely temporarily.

The fourth chart is of March 2011 real (inflation adjusted) data. It is sorted identically to chart one and again shows that all 20 metros are down from their peak prices with again Dallas in the best shape (-21.6%) and Las Vegas the worst (-63.2%). It also shows that in real terms only 2 of 20 metros are actually higher than their early 2009 low and that both are only up +2.7% (and both still have huge declines of -47.4% and -35.3%).

The remaining 18 metros are all at their lowest point in the cycle. Again, the "Price Level" column is of interest as it shows that 10 of metros are down to levels never seen before in real terms (noted with an asterisk) and have resulted in a "lost" 20+ years of home appreciation. Long story short, housing has collapsed across the country and in real terms national pricing is back to late 1987 pricing - ouch!

I should also mention that this is based upon the latest Case-Shiller data, but many of these homes sold in very early 2011 since it typically takes 45 - 60 days to close and get recorded. So actual current prices (June 2011) are likely even lower and with the lowering of the GSE limits around the corner, we'll likely see even further declines.

On a positive note, prices today (especially when you account for near historic low interest rates) are the best they've been in 25+ years. While prices are still likely to head lower all markets have already experienced the majority of both their real and nominal price declines (i.e. San Francisco is already down in real terms -$420,000 and with median prices at $465,900 another -$420,000 is impossible). That being said, patience will still likely be rewarded with lower prices and maybe even lower interest rates. Time is on the renters side.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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