Global Economic
Trend Analysis

Recent Posts

Thursday, May 16, 2013 12:25 PM

Philly Fed Slips Into Contraction (Again); Current Conditions Recessionary, Future Expectations Far Too Optimistic

Mish Moved to MishTalk.Com Click to Visit.

The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey shows regional activity weakened with current indicators negative. The Six-Month Outlook brightened in what I believe is rampant over-optimism.

"The current activity index has shown no pattern of sustained growth over the past seven months, generally alternating between positive and negative readings."

Note the negative slope of current conditions and future expectations. Current conditions are in recession territory.

Philly Fed at a Glance

Business Outlook SurveyMay vs. April6 Months From Now
Series DataApr IndexIncreaseNo ChangeDecreaseMay IndexApr IndexIncreaseNo ChangeDecreaseMay Index
Business Conditions1.323.841.829.0-5.219.544.536.312.232.3
New Orders-1.027.435.535.3-7.924.347.234.212.734.5
Unfilled Orders-8.712.660.521.9-9.3-2.124.461.77.516.9
Delivery Times-13.810.268.316.2-6.0-4.512.169.410.21.9
Prices Paid3.
Prices Received-
Number of Employees-6.813.763.922.4-
Average Workweek-2.114.754.727.2-12.46.626.453.912.314.1
Capital Expenitures-----7.825.452.413.911.5

Key May Index Numbers

  • Business Conditions: -5.2
  • New Orders: -7.9
  • Shipments: -8.5
  • Unfilled Orders: -9.3
  • Number of Employees: -8.7
  • Average Workweek: -12.4

Margin Squeeze

  • Price Paid +6.9
  • Prices Received  -3.3

Looking ahead,  future expectations rose from 19.5 to 32.3, yet businesses are not backing that optimism up with a huge jump capital expenditure plans or hiring plans although both showed small increases.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Last 10 Posts

Copyright 2009 Mike Shedlock. All Rights Reserved.
View My Stats