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Other macro  discussion topics include interest rates, China, commodities, the US dollar, Euro, Yuan, Yen, stagflation, emerging markets, politics, Congressional and statewide policy decisions that affect the US and global markets."},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"8742"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-15655381896100091"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-18T12:45:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-18T12:48:07.536-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"FBI Director Warns Google and Apple \"If You Don't Decrypt Phones, We'll Do It For You\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.law.cornell.edu\/constitution\/fourth_amendment\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EFourth Amendment to the US Constitution\u003C\/a\u003E is crystal clear in meaning. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003EThe right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFBI Director, James Comey, an Obama appointment, does not give a damn what the Constitution says.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn a recent speech, Comey warns \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/motherboard.vice.com\/read\/fbi-director-if-apple-and-google-wont-decrypt-phones-well-force-them-to\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EIf Apple and Google Won't Decrypt Phones, We'll Force Them To\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote \u003EEveryone is stoked that the latest versions of iOS and Android will (finally) encrypt all the information on your smartphone by default. Except, of course, the FBI: Today, its director spent an hour attacking the companies and the very idea of encryption, even suggesting that Congress should pass a law banning the practice of default encryption.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIt's of course no secret that James Comey and the FBI hate the prospect of \"going dark,\" the idea that law enforcement simply doesn't have the technical capability to track criminals (and the average person) because of all those goddamn apps, encryption, wifi network switching, and different carriers.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\"Encryption isn’t just a technical feature; it’s a marketing pitch … it’s the equivalent of a closet that can’t be opened. A safe that can’t be cracked. And my question is, at what cost?\" Comey said. \"Both companies [Apple and Google] are run by good people, responding to what they perceive is a market demand. But the place they are leading us is one we shouldn’t go to without careful thought and debate.\"\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ESafe That Cannot be Cracked\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EA safe that cannot be cracked and a door that cannot be opened except by the rightful owner is precisely what everyone should want. It's what the Constitution explicitly states. Instead, Comey wants the right to read your papers and search your effects. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“\u003Ci\u003EPerhaps it’s time to suggest that the post-Snowden pendulum has swung too far in one direction—in a direction of fear and mistrust,\u003C\/i\u003E\" claims Comey.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EExcuse me, but what pendulum is Comey talking about? \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe privacy pendulum has not budged an inch in the right direction. Not one new privacy law has been passed or even discussed.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETo prove how much above the law these law-enforcement jackasses are, one Pentagon official stated \"\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.buzzfeed.com\/bennyjohnson\/americas-spies-want-edward-snowden-dead\"\u003EI would love to put a bullet in Snowden's head\u003C\/a\u003E\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENo one threatening to kill Snowden has been censured. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor blatant disrespect of the US Constitution, Comey ought to be fired, but there's nary a peep from Obama.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI suggest we need a cultural change from the top down starting with a president who understands and respects the Constitution.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike  \"Mish\"  Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/15655381896100091\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=15655381896100091\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/15655381896100091"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/15655381896100091"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/fbi-director-warns-google-and-apple-if.html","title":"FBI Director Warns Google and Apple \"If You Don't Decrypt Phones, We'll Do It For You\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-4441613860502863492"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-17T16:52:00.003-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-17T17:03:27.508-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Free Market Response to Ebola  "},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"In response to \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/ebola-scare-obamas-lame-response-no.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EObama's Lame Response to Ebola; No Protocols but Lots of Fearmongering\u003C\/a\u003E one person responded that I was \"\u003Ci\u003Eover-cooking the Ebola crisis\u003C\/i\u003E\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAmusingly, another reader accused me of \"\u003Ci\u003Eunderplaying the crisis\u003C\/i\u003E\". \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EA third reader asked \"\u003Ci\u003Ewhat is the free market response?\u003C\/i\u003E\" A similar question arose in a comment to Acting Man's post \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.acting-man.com\/?p=33526\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EThe Ebola Outbreak – A Black Swan\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBefore tackling the free market issue, let's first review the government's response to date.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003EAirport restrictions but only at 5 airport, not all of them\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003ETemperature taking procedures initiated\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EIn spite temperature worries, a nurse self-reported to the center for disease control that she had an elevated temperature and ebola patient contact, but was told go ahead and fly\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThink about the act of temperature taking. Whoever administered the test would have been in close contact with everyone on or entering the plane. Is that a good idea? Do sneezes and coughs happen? \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EEnough said.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EFree Market Response \u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIt's 100% certain the free market response would not have been the government's response to date.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd what about my proposal of flight bans from epidemic countries?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EGovernment mandated is not free market by definition. But, it's entirely possible my solution is what the free market would have arrived at!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThree Questions I Asked Previously \u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Col\u003E\u003Cli\u003EIs there a chance of spreading the disease by coughing or sneezing? Yes.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EWould I want to sit on a plane next to someone who was in contact with an ebola patient? No, and neither would anyone else.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EWould I want to sit on a plane next to someone from a country where ebola is viral? No, and neither would anyone else.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ol\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThose are common sense questions that airlines may have asked themselves. Airports may have asked similar questions. But airlines do not initiate travel bans in this over-regulated society. Neither do airports.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI read a comment that airlines are being greedy. How so? Airlines are not in position to ban flights from specific countries for medical reasons.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd the last thing airlines need is plane decontamination efforts to fill an extremely tiny number of seats from those arriving from select African countries.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI pinged Pater Tenebrarum at \u003Ci\u003EActing Man\u003C\/i\u003E with this comment \"\u003Ci\u003EI believe the free market response is that airlines would have banned travel from certain African countries.\u003C\/i\u003E\" \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHe responded \"\u003Ci\u003EAbsolutely, but there are many other ways in which we could expect an unhampered market economy to respond to such a situation. In fact, I intend to take up the challenge and write a post about it.\u003C\/i\u003E\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWas I correct? We will never know.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI simply proposed what I thought the free market solution would be in absence of protocols from the center for disease control. I look forward to reading Pater's response.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn the meantime, we know with absolute certainty the government's response was pathetic. We also know \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/mccain-calls-for-ground-troops-in-syria.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EMcCain's Proposal for an Ebola Czar\u003C\/a\u003E is equally, if not more pathetic.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike  \"Mish\"  Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/4441613860502863492\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=4441613860502863492\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/4441613860502863492"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/4441613860502863492"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/free-market-response-to-ebola.html","title":"Free Market Response to Ebola  "}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-6661616884823102406"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-17T12:30:00.003-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-17T12:44:11.323-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Irony of the Day: Yellen Moans About Income Inequality; Seven Things That Cause Inequality"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Those seeking the irony of the day will find it comes straight from the mouth of the Fed Chair. Please consider \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/intl\/cms\/s\/0\/12574e90-55f9-11e4-a3c9-00144feab7de.html#axzz3GQ6Cbjcv\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EJanet Yellen Bemoans Rising US Inequality\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EJanet Yellen decried rising inequality on Friday in an unusual speech that may lead to accusations of politicising the US Federal Reserve.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESpeaking at a conference in Boston, the Fed chairwoman said she was “greatly concerned” by rising income and wealth inequality, and asked whether it is compatible with American values.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHer remarks will delight the Democrats who championed her as Fed chair, but risk a backlash from Republicans, who may feel she is using the platform of the central bank to promote the causes of their political rivals.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIt marks a big step in defining Ms Yellen’s term at the Fed. She has tried to popularise the role, meeting with unemployed people, and now speaking out on issues beyond monetary policy. Despite recent turmoil in financial markets, Ms Yellen made no reference to economic conditions or Fed policy in her speech.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“The extent of and continuing increase in inequality in the United States greatly concern me,” said Ms Yellen. “The past several decades have seen the most sustained rise in inequality since the 19th century after more than 40 years of narrowing inequality following the Great Depression.”\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ELook Inward Janet!\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EInstead of bemoaning income inequality as \"incompatible with American values\", the Chair ought to look at the cause of it.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ESeven Things That Cause Inequality\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Col\u003E\u003Cli\u003EFed-sponsored bank bailouts\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EFed interest rate suppression that punishes savers and those on fixed income\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EFed QE to goose financial assets (primarily held by the wealthy)\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EFed-sponsored inflation that benefits those with first access to money: banks, the already wealthy, and government (via property and other taxes)\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EGovernment deficit spending, war-mongering, and other inflationary policies\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EGovernment interference in the free markets, especially housing, health care, and education \u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ol\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EIs Inequality Always a Bad Thing? \u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENotice, I said seven but only listed 6. Here's the bonus 7th: \u003Ci\u003EInnovation.\u003C\/i\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThose who invent better ways of doing things (or simply do things better than anyone else) often succeed wildly.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBut the 7th is the way it should be. It is the essence of free-market-capitalism. Looked at properly, income inequality is actually a necessity!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIt's the way income inequality is achieved that makes it good or bad.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOf seven major things that cause income inequality, four are Fed-sponsored, two are government-sponsored, and one is as it should be.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWhich one does Yellen bitch about? The 7th of course.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike  \"Mish\"  Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/6661616884823102406\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=6661616884823102406\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/6661616884823102406"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/6661616884823102406"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/irony-of-day-yellen-moans-about-income.html","title":"Irony of the Day: Yellen Moans About Income Inequality; Seven Things That Cause Inequality"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-582906423402142160"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-16T22:50:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-16T22:52:13.313-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Greece 10-Year Bond Yield Soars to 9% as Prime Minister's Gambit Explodes; Snap Elections Likely, and Opposition Syriza Would Win"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"In the last three days, yield on the Greek 10-year government bond soared from 6.6% to over 9% before settling at 8.917%. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-8aAZxzDv1m4\/VECNB3x9iLI\/AAAAAAAAbBY\/DJteRq3Yt-c\/s1600\/Greece%2B10-year%2BYield.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-8aAZxzDv1m4\/VECNB3x9iLI\/AAAAAAAAbBY\/DJteRq3Yt-c\/s400\/Greece%2B10-year%2BYield.png\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPrime Minister Antonis Samaras' Gambit Explodes \u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EGreek bonds yields had already been climbing with the rise of the radical left Syriza party in recent polls. Icing on the yield-cake was a \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/intl\/cms\/s\/0\/012a94f0-5532-11e4-b616-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=intl#axzz3GMqMNh2w\" target=\"_blank\"\u003Eseriously misguided election ploy\u003C\/a\u003E by prime minister, Antonis Samaras that blew up in his face. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EGreece’s beleaguered prime minister, Antonis Samaras, used a bold gambit last week to win a confidence vote and preserve a coalition government with sagging support: he promised lawmakers that the country would evict its bailout lenders by the end of the year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EYet Mr Samaras’s plan to make a clean exit from an EU rescue programme and cut short a companion lifeline from the International Monetary Fund appears to be backfiring in dramatic fashion.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EYields on Greece’s long term bonds pushed above 9 per cent on Thursday to their highest level this year as investors doubted that the government had the ability to finance itself without help – let alone press ahead with economic reforms.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAdding to the premier’s woes, Syriza, the radical left opposition party, has increased its lead in opinion polls and threatens to come to power within a few months – an outcome even some members of Mr Samaras’s centre-right New Democracy party now consider probable.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe trigger would be February’s presidential election, where the coalition will have to corral 25 extra votes to secure victory for its candidate. If it cannot, snap elections will be called in March. \u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ESYRIZA Widens Lead Over Samaras' New Democracy\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ERecent polls shows \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.ekathimerini.com\/4dcgi\/_w_articles_wsite1_1_14\/10\/2014_543704\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ESYRIZA Has Clear Lead Over New Democracy\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EA new GPO poll conducted for Mega TV gives SYRIZA a 6.5 percentage point lead over New Democracy.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe survey, whose results were shown on the Anatropi program late on Monday, also places centrist To Potami in third place.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the poll, SYRIZA gathers 26.7 percent, New Democracy 20.2, To Potami 6, Golden Dawn 5.7, the Communist Party 5.7, PASOK 4 percent, Independent Greeks 3 percent, LAOS 2.1, ANTARSYA 1.6.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOther parties gained a combined 4.7 percent, while 18.2 percent of respondents said they have not decided yet.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe poll also suggests that the majority of Greeks do not want the presidential election in February to lead to early national polls. The results showed that 55.7 percent are against early elections, while 40.3 percent are in favor.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ESnap Elections Likely\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EEven though Greek voters do not want early elections, polls show that outcome is highly likely unless Antonis Samaras somehow hijacks the election or picks up a huge percentage of the undecided electorate.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike  \"Mish\"  Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/582906423402142160\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=582906423402142160\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/582906423402142160"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/582906423402142160"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/greece-10-year-bond-yield-soars-to-9-as.html","title":"Greece 10-Year Bond Yield Soars to 9% as Prime Minister's Gambit Explodes; Snap Elections Likely, and Opposition Syriza Would Win"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-8aAZxzDv1m4\/VECNB3x9iLI\/AAAAAAAAbBY\/DJteRq3Yt-c\/s72-c\/Greece%2B10-year%2BYield.png","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-5768563641601508999"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-16T10:21:00.003-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-16T10:21:56.582-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"WalMart Margins Set to Plunge? Will Rest of Retail Follow? What About Jobs?"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Retail sales reports on Wednesday have me thinking about the strength of the economy, commercial construction, jobs, and profit margins.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ELet's start with a look at retail sales. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Wall Street Journal reports \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/online.wsj.com\/articles\/u-s-retail-sales-fall-0-3-in-september-1413376472\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EU.S. Retail Sales Falter Amid Signs of Global Slowdown\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESimilarly, Bloomberg reports \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/2014-10-15\/retail-sales-in-u-s-decreased-more-than-forecast-in-september.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EWeaker Retail Sales Signal Smaller Spending Boost\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ERetail sales dropped more than forecast in September on a broad pullback in spending that indicates American consumers provided less of a boost for the economy in the third quarter.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe 0.3 percent decrease followed a 0.6 percent August gain that was the biggest in four months, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Sales fell at auto dealers, furniture stores, building-supply outlets and clothing merchants. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 0.1 percent drop. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“The fact that real wages and salaries haven’t picked up that dramatically, it puts a ceiling on how much spending can accelerate,” said Omair Sharif, a U.S. economist at RBS Securities Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut. “It seems like relatively widespread softness in spending. The pickup in consumption that we’re all waiting for hasn’t quite taken off yet.” \u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ESlower Store Openings\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EReuters reports \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/2014\/10\/15\/us-walmart-stores-idUSKCN0I41O820141015?feedType=RSS\u0026amp;feedName=businessNews\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EWal-Mart to Slow Store Openings, Invest More in Ecommerce\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EWal-Mart Stores, the world's largest retailer, said on Wednesday it would open fewer stores in the U.S. in the next fiscal year and ramp up spending on e-commerce.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe retailer will open 180-200 of its small format stores, called Neighborhood Markets, in the next fiscal year through January 2016, Greg Foran, head of the U.S. business, told a meeting of investors and analysts. That compares with its plan to open 270-300 of the small format stores in the current fiscal year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EForan said Wal-Mart would open 60-70 Supercenters, its large format store, in the next fiscal year, compared with a plan for 115 openings, including conversions, this year.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EFewer Stores, Less Hiring\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFewer stores means less construction and less hiring. The former is transitory, the latter more lasting. If this is the trend at Wal-Mart, can Target and other retailers be that far behind?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIf so, what does that say about trucking growth to stock the stores, and truckers eating at restaurants along the way? Of course, one also needs to consider the long-term growth aspects of trucking in general. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWith trucking in mind, please consider \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/robotrucks-from-mercedes-benz-to-hit-us.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ERoboTrucks from Mercedes-Benz to Hit US Highways Within 10 Years; Mish Supply Chain Proposal\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EBleak Outlook for Sales and Profit\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere's a story that really caught my eye: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.latimes.com\/business\/la-fi-walmart-forecast-20141015-story.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EWal-Mart offers bleaker outlook for sales and profit growth\u003C\/a\u003E.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EWal-Mart Stores Inc., facing a retail slump and a decline in traffic to big-box chains, cut its annual sales forecast and predicted slower profit growth over the next three years.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESales will rise 2% to 3% this fiscal year, the Bentonville, Ark., company said Wednesday at its annual meeting with analysts. Wal-Mart had previously projected growth of 3% to 5%, though it indicated in February that it expected to come in at the low end of that forecast.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EChief Executive Doug McMillon is trying to reignite growth at a company hampered by shaky retail spending and slow shopper foot traffic. Wal-Mart's same-store sales — an industry benchmark of health — haven't risen in six quarters. To bounce back, the company is opening fewer big-box locations, focusing instead on smaller neighborhood stores and its e-commerce site.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003EThe 47-year-old executive, who took charge of the company in February, said he sees plenty of room for improvement when visiting Wal-Mart stores on surprise visits. McMillon said stores need to boost in-stock levels — a measure of the merchandise available on shelves for customers to buy. They also should address long checkout lines and improve staffing by increasing the number of worker hours. \u003C\/i\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EMargins Set to Plunge\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIf CEO Doug McMillon is indeed concerned about stock levels and long checkout lines, then he has to commit to more inventory in spite of missed sales targets. More importantly, he will have to hire more employees if he wants to shrink checkout lines.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe latter is good news for hiring, but horrid news for profit margins. Moreover, extra hiring news is balanced by a cutback in store growth.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIt is easy to spin the hiring news however one wants. However, stock market levels are more than a bit inflated vs. overall earnings and margin projections.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike  \"Mish\"  Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/5768563641601508999\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=5768563641601508999\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/5768563641601508999"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/5768563641601508999"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/walmart-margins-set-to-plunge-will-rest.html","title":"WalMart Margins Set to Plunge? Will Rest of Retail Follow? What About Jobs?"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-2488209390914232345"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-16T00:38:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-16T10:00:49.237-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Pain Trade, Treasury Bears, Margin Calls"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"I have been warning US treasury bears for quite some time, but I now wonder if we have seen a bit of short-term capitulation.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBefore discussing further, let's first look at a \u003Ci\u003EMish Mailbag\u003C\/i\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EReader Rob writes ... \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EHi Mish\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI was thinking that margin calls would be made after today and could pull the market down further by Friday. Do you think margin calls would be made to any degree yet?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAlso your article \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/stock-buybacks-peaked-with-stock-market.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EStock Buybacks Peaked With Stock Market in 2007: History About to Repeat?\u003C\/a\u003E would be a great post on \u003Ci\u003EBusiness Insider\u003C\/i\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThanks, Rob\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EBond Market vs. Equities\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EGenerally I stay away from short-term prognosis. As for equities, all I can offer is general advice: Huge plunges do not happen in overbought conditions, but rather oversold conditions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EEven so, the tendency is to bounce not plunge. Are equity dip buyers about to give up? I don't know, but nor does anyone else (but when it happens the plunge is likely to be spectacular).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETo me the bond market is far more interesting. I am on record as a treasury bull in belief the US economy is far weaker than most think. My position changes from time to time, and perhaps yields are at a short-term bottom. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EA few charts may help explain.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003E$TYX 30-Year Treasuries \u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-zJVchw9oUyo\/VD9A15EIIJI\/AAAAAAAAbA4\/2MFwACOVNgE\/s1600\/%24tnx%2BDaily.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-zJVchw9oUyo\/VD9A15EIIJI\/AAAAAAAAbA4\/2MFwACOVNgE\/s400\/%24tnx%2BDaily.png\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom top to bottom yield on the 30-year treasury went from 2.935% to 2.677%, a swing of 25.8 basis points. That's an enormous move.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003E$TNX 10-Year Treasuries \u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-1OI6FgLcDdA\/VD9CjjVKxRI\/AAAAAAAAbBE\/G0VmBj3DCCg\/s1600\/%24TNX.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-1OI6FgLcDdA\/VD9CjjVKxRI\/AAAAAAAAbBE\/G0VmBj3DCCg\/s400\/%24TNX.png\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom top to bottom yield on the 10-year treasury went from 2.169% to 1.868%, a swing of 30.1 basis points. That's an even bigger move.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn both cases, yields traded well off the lows. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWhile the same can be said in equities, I have a lot more faith in the bond market (despite Fed manipulations).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESimply put, the bond market does not believe the recovery story and neither do I. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPain Trade\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBloomberg reports \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/2014-10-15\/biggest-pain-trade-gives-38-loss-to-bond-bears-getting-it-wrong.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EBiggest Pain Trade Gives 37% Loss to Bond Bears Getting It Wrong\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EWhat a dismal time for bond traders who were optimistic about growth.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EInvestors who poured more than $1 billion this year into a $3.8 billion leveraged exchange-traded fund that bets against long-dated U.S. Treasuries are suffering a 10.7 percent loss this month alone, Bloomberg data show. The fund is down 36.5 percent this year, a small window into the magnitude of pain in a market where many traders have been wagering debt prices would fall.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETreasuries have defied predictions across Wall Street for higher yields all year, and yesterday’s move is sending bond bears into a tailspin. Yields on 10-year Treasuries fell the most since March 2009, trading below 2 percent for the first time since June 2013 as a decline in retail sales prompted traders to reduce wagers the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates next year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe move is in part driven by traders covering their short bets, according to Jack Flaherty, an investment manager at GAM USA Inc. in New York. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPrimary dealers had the biggest short position on benchmark government notes at the beginning of the month since June 2013. They had a net $20.7 billion wager against notes maturing in the seven-to-eleven year range in the week ended Oct. 1, Fed data show.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“\u003Ci\u003EWe keep thinking we’re getting capitulation trades, but clearly there’s a lot more skeletons in the closet than we thought,\u003C\/i\u003E” Ira Jersey, an interest-rate strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) in New York, wrote in an e-mail. “We’re also seeing more flight to quality buyers out of global asset classes that are considered ‘riskier.’”\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EEconomic News, Not Ebola\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBloomberg has the story right: There's a lot of hidden skeletons.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn contrast, CNN blamed the stock market decline on ebola. (See \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/ebola-scare-obamas-lame-response-no.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EObama's Lame Response to Ebola; No Protocols but Lots of Fearmongering; Where's the Common Sense?\u003C\/a\u003E)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EWhere to Now\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWhere to from here? I found treasuries attractive at the beginning of the year, and I also mentioned them at a Casey Conference presentation I made in September. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ELong-term treasuries are no longer the value they were then, but that does not make them a short. Convince me a recovery is coming and the Fed will hike and I will change my tune.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com \u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/2488209390914232345\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=2488209390914232345\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/2488209390914232345"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/2488209390914232345"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/pain-trade-treasury-bears-margin-calls.html","title":"Pain Trade, Treasury Bears, Margin Calls"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-zJVchw9oUyo\/VD9A15EIIJI\/AAAAAAAAbA4\/2MFwACOVNgE\/s72-c\/%24tnx%2BDaily.png","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-1650508650984162243"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-15T21:44:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-16T00:36:57.566-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Obama's Lame Response to Ebola; No Protocols but Lots of Fearmongering; Where's the Common Sense?"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003EEbola Fearmongering\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI seldom watch TV. But today I am on the road and watched CNN from a restaurant. I did not have sound, but I did see captions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ECNN's headline story was ridiculous. CNN placed the blame for the intraday DOW plunge of 460 point on ebola. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere was no mention of the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/21-point-plunge-in-empire-state.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E21-Point Plunge in Empire State manufacturing Index\u003C\/a\u003E. Nor was there any mention of weak consumer spending. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWhat about PEs in the stratosphere? No mention of course. (For discussion, please see \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/stock-buybacks-peaked-with-stock-market.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EStock Buybacks Peaked With Stock Market in 2007: History About to Repeat?\u003C\/a\u003E)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EInstead, CNN assumed the DOW plunge was based on ebola.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EObama's Lame Response\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFear is in the air, and it's easy to assign blame. A few simple questions will help explain.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Col\u003E\u003Cli\u003EIs there a chance of spreading the disease by coughing or sneezing? Yes.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EWould I want to sit on a plane next to someone who was in contact with an ebola patient? No, and neither would anyone else.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EWould I want to sit on a plane next to someone from a country where ebola is viral? No, and neither would anyone else.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ol\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETo stop the spread of the disease and the accompanying panic, I have a fourth question:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003EWhy isn't there a flight ban on those from Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone (and every other country where there is a major outbreak)?\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EInstead, we take temperatures even though the incubation period is as long as three weeks. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETo top it off, today we learn \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/news\/nation\/2014\/10\/15\/second-texas-health-care-worker-tests-positive-for-ebola\/xGbkGXSC4E0lIQRjtDOfWJ\/story.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E2nd Texas Worker with Ebola Took Flight With Elevated Temperature\u003C\/a\u003E, and the Center for Disease Control OK'd the flight. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ENew shortcomings emerged Wednesday in the nation’s response to the Ebola virus after it was revealed that a second nurse was infected with Ebola at a hospital here and that she had traveled on a commercial flight the day before she showed symptoms of the disease.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe nurse, Amber Joy Vinson, 29, was on the medical team that cared for the Ebola victim Thomas Eric Duncan after he was admitted to the hospital on Sept. 28 and put in isolation. Vinson should not have traveled on a commercial flight, federal health officials said, when she boarded Frontier Airlines Flight 1143 on Monday, en route from Cleveland to Dallas-Fort Worth.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOne official said Vinson had called federal health officials before boarding the plane to report having a slightly elevated temperature but was allowed to fly.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ESecond Texas Nurse with Ebola Transferred to Special Facility\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Guardian reports \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2014\/oct\/15\/ebola-second-texas-nurse-transferred-atlanta\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ESecond Texas Nurse with Ebola Transferred to Special Facility\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EConcerns over US response intensify after reports say the nurse told the CDC that she had a fever but was still allowed to fly.The second nurse diagnosed with Ebola in Texas is to be transferred from Dallas to a special bio-containment unit in Atlanta, officials announced on Wednesday, as they acknowledged failings in the response to the arrival of the virus in the US.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) also said that the 29-year-old nurse, Amber Vinson, flew on a commercial flight from Cleveland, Ohio to Dallas with a low-grade temperature a day before she was diagnosed. While in Ohio, she also reportedly travelled from Cleveland to Akron.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EConcerns about the US response to the crisis intensified on Wednesday night when it was reported that Vinson told the CDC that she had a slight fever before she boarded the flight but was not told to stay put. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EVinson is the second healthcare worker to have contracted Ebola at Texas Health Presbyterian hospital in Dallas, which treated Thomas Eric Duncan, a Liberian who was the first patient in the US to be diagnosed with Ebola. Another nurse, 26-year-old Nina Pham, was diagnosed at the weekend. Both had cared for Duncan, who died in an isolation ward on 8 October.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second infection called into question the Dallas hospital’s ability to protect staff treating Ebola patients, and raised concerns about the quality of the initial response to Duncan’s diagnosis by state and federal agencies. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EDr Tom Frieden, the CDC director, conceded on Wednesday that Vinson should not have been allowed to take the flights to Ohio. “We will, from this moment forward, ensure that no other individual who is being monitored for exposure undergoes travel in any way other than controlled movement,” Frieden said.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to Frieden, the two nurses who contracted Ebola in Dallas had “extensive” contact with Duncan in the days before he was diagnosed, when he was extremely ill, excreting large quantities of highly contagious body fluids. \u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EProtocols? What Protocols?\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003E“Were protocols breached? The nurses say there were no protocols,” said National Nurses United Co-President Deborah Burger in a call with reporters Wednesday\u003C\/i\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIs the US attempting to contain the disease or not?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn typical US fashion, no one can come up with proper protocols until after panic sets in.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETexas governor Rick Perry cut short a trip to Europe to deal with the ebola crisis in Texas, and President Obama cancelled a campaign trip to deal with the outbreak.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EWhere's the Common Sense?\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn response to \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/mccain-calls-for-ground-troops-in-syria.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EMcCain Calls for Ground Troops in Syria and an Ebola Czar; Secret Friends\u003C\/a\u003E a couple of people claimed I was overly downplaying the risk of ebola. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI plead not guilty. Before these latest incidents, I emailed there should be flight bans and procedures to stop the risk of spreading (and that was always my expectation).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWhat I did not see (but easily could have) was the totally inept response from this administration.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHowever, even Obama now realizes the situation is serious. He must, because he cancelled a campaign fundraiser. What can possibly be more serious than that?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESo, rest assured, unless ebola quickly mutates, the odds of a massive outbreak in the US is extremely unlikely (provided of course common-sense protocols are finally adopted).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EWill Common Sense Finally Prevail?\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWell, not quite. I actually expect the underwhelming response so far will go overboard in the other direction by orders of magnitude.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere's an easy prediction: This will culminate with a claim from Obama that he saved us all from ebola.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike  \"Mish\"  Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com \u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/1650508650984162243\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=1650508650984162243\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/1650508650984162243"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/1650508650984162243"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/ebola-scare-obamas-lame-response-no.html","title":"Obama's Lame Response to Ebola; No Protocols but Lots of Fearmongering; Where's the Common Sense?"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-4461122777890686642"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-15T10:38:00.004-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-15T10:38:37.807-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"21-Point Plunge in Empire State manufacturing Index, New Orders Contract; Future Expectations Remain in Stratosphere"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/survey\/empire\/empire2014\/2014_10Report.pdf\"\u003EEmpire State Manufacturing Survey\u003C\/a\u003E (a diffusion index) hit a multiyear high last month, then promptly crashed this month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EDiffusion Index Problems\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first problem with diffusion indices is they do not distinguish between big companies and small companies.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second problem is they record expansion or contraction in companies surveyed, but all expansions (and all contractions) are treated equally. Barely growing and wild growth are treated alike. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENonetheless, let's take a peek inside the survey. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ESurvey Details \u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003EGeneral business conditions (the overall index) fell twenty-one points to 6.2\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003ENew orders dropped nineteen points to -1.7\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EShipments fell twenty-six points to 1.1\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EUnfilled orders rose 6 points but remains in negative territory at -4.55\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EEmployment rose seven points to 10.2\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EThe average workweek fell 4 points to -1.11\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EPrices paid fell thirteen points to 11.4, its lowest level in more than two years\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EPrices received fell eleven points to 6.8\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EInventories rose 10 points to 2.27\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EGeneral Business Conditions\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-YZzxmzr-0GU\/VD6OYl2nzEI\/AAAAAAAAbAk\/--pGlzeQi2A\/s1600\/Empire%2BState%2B2014-10.png\" imageanchor=\"1\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-YZzxmzr-0GU\/VD6OYl2nzEI\/AAAAAAAAbAk\/--pGlzeQi2A\/s400\/Empire%2BState%2B2014-10.png\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EFuture Expectations Remain in Stratosphere\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ECuriously, and in spite of this month's swan dive, the index for future general business conditions remains in the stratosphere.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EFuture Index Components\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003E Future general business conditions is a lofty 41.7 (down 5 points).  \u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EThe future new orders index fell three points to 42.3\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EThe future shipments index declined five points to 42.5. \u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EThe capital expenditures index climbed nine points to 21.6, its highest level in several months\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EThe technology spending index rose to 15.9.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAre future expectations too lofty? I think so. Everyone is a believer at the top.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike  \"Mish\"  Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com \u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/4461122777890686642\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=4461122777890686642\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/4461122777890686642"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/4461122777890686642"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/21-point-plunge-in-empire-state.html","title":"21-Point Plunge in Empire State manufacturing Index, New Orders Contract; Future Expectations Remain in Stratosphere"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-YZzxmzr-0GU\/VD6OYl2nzEI\/AAAAAAAAbAk\/--pGlzeQi2A\/s72-c\/Empire%2BState%2B2014-10.png","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-809411538651195326"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-15T01:18:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-15T01:25:40.263-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Post-Foreclosure Hell: Garnished Wages, Seized Assets, Deficiency Judgments  "},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"In 2009 and 2010 \"\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/cse?cx=partner-pub-8016246264838965%3Aim2m3485isl\u0026amp;ie=ISO-8859-1\u0026amp;q=walking+away\u0026amp;sa=Search\u0026amp;siteurl=globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com%2F\u0026amp;ref=\u0026amp;ss=3150j1325430j12#gsc.tab=0\u0026amp;gsc.q=walking%20away\u0026amp;gsc.page=1\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EWalking Away\u003C\/a\u003E\" was the rage. (skip the adds and scroll down to my list of articles).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBack then, I frequently cautioned \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2009\/11\/before-walking-away-consult-attorney.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EBefore Walking Away Consult An Attorney\u003C\/a\u003E, advice repeated in nearly every reference to the practice.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWalking away without declaring bankruptcy, especially with a recourse mortgage was always a dangerous practice.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMoreover, law is complicated because rules vary from state to state, and non-recourse loans often became recourse loans if refinanced. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPost-Foreclosure Hell\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EUnfortunately, \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/2014\/10\/14\/us-usa-housing-foreclosures-insight-idUSKCN0I30BU20141014?feedType=RSS\u0026amp;feedName=domesticNews\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EPost-Foreclosure Hell\u003C\/a\u003E is the sorry result for those who did not consult an attorney. \u003Cblockquote\u003EMany thousands of Americans who lost their homes in the housing bust, but have since begun to rebuild their finances, are suddenly facing a new foreclosure nightmare: debt collectors are chasing them down for the money they still owe by freezing their bank accounts, garnishing their wages and seizing their assets.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBy now, banks have usually sold the houses. But the proceeds of those sales were often not enough to cover the amount of the loan, plus penalties, legal bills and fees. The two big government-controlled housing finance companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as other mortgage players, are increasingly pressing borrowers to pay whatever they still owe on mortgages they defaulted on years ago. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EUsing a legal tool known as a \"deficiency judgment,\" lenders can ensure that borrowers are haunted by these zombie-like debts for years, and sometimes decades, to come.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe most aggressive among the debt pursuers is Fannie Mae. Of the 595,128 foreclosures Fannie Mae was involved in – either through owning or guaranteeing the loans - from January 2010 through June 2012, it referred 293,134 to debt collectors for possible pursuit of deficiency judgments, according to a 2013 report by the Inspector General for the agency’s regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIt is unclear how many of the loans that get sent to debt collectors actually get deficiency judgments, but the IG urged the FHFA to direct Fannie Mae, along with Freddie Mac, to pursue more of them from the people who could repay them. \u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe article notes that Florida is one of the more aggressive states in pursuing \"deficiency judgments\". For example ... \u003Cblockquote\u003EBank teller Danell Huthsing broke up with her boyfriend and moved out of the concrete bungalow they shared in Jacksonville, Florida. Her name was on the mortgage even after she moved out, and when her boyfriend defaulted on the loan, her name was on the foreclosure papers, too. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOn July 5, a process server showed up on her doorstep with a lawsuit demanding $91,000 for the portion of her mortgage that was still unpaid after the home was foreclosed and sold. If she loses, the debt collector that filed the suit can freeze her bank account, garnish up to 25 percent of her wages, and seize her paid-off 2005 Honda Accord.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EI specifically spotlighted Florida in \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2009\/11\/before-walking-away-consult-attorney.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EBefore Walking Away Consult An Attorney\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBut it's not just Florida.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EReuters reports \"\u003Ci\u003EOnce financial institutions secure a judgment, they can sometimes have years to collect on the claim. In Maryland, for example, they have as long as 36 years to chase people down for the debt. Financial institutions can charge post-judgment interest of an estimated 4.75 percent a year on the remaining balance until the statute of limitation runs out, which can drive people deeper into debt.\u003C\/i\u003E\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHundreds of thousands of people will soon be in extremely hot water because they failed to seek advice from an attorney, advice which may have cost only a couple hundred dollars in 2009.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike  \"Mish\"  Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com \u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/809411538651195326\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=809411538651195326\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/809411538651195326"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/809411538651195326"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/post-foreclosure-hell-garnished-wages.html","title":"Post-Foreclosure Hell: Garnished Wages, Seized Assets, Deficiency Judgments  "}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-3709350912039845604"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-14T20:16:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-14T20:20:30.800-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Top Secret Spacecraft Returns to Earth This Week After Two Years in Space;  Rods From God"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"A US Air Force \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.af.mil\/AboutUs\/FactSheets\/Display\/tabid\/224\/Article\/104539\/x-37b-orbital-test-vehicle.aspx\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EX-37B Orbital Test Vehicle\u003C\/a\u003E has been in space for two years conducting top secret research.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EMission\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle, or OTV, is an experimental test program to demonstrate technologies for a reliable, reusable, unmanned space test platform for the U.S. Air Force. The primary objectives of the X-37B are twofold: reusable spacecraft technologies for America's future in space and operating experiments which can be returned to, and examined, on Earth.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFeatures\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle is the newest and most advanced re-entry spacecraft. Based on NASA's X-37 design, the unmanned OTV is designed for vertical launch to low Earth orbit altitudes where it can perform long duration space technology experimentation and testing. Upon command from the ground, the OTV autonomously re-enters the atmosphere, descends and lands horizontally on a runway. The X-37B is the first vehicle since NASA's Shuttle Orbiter with the ability to return experiments to Earth for further inspection and analysis, but with an on-orbit time of 270 days, the X-37B can stay in space for much longer.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETechnologies being tested in the program include advanced guidance, navigation and control, thermal protection systems, avionics, high temperature structures and seals, conformal reusable insulation, lightweight electromechanical flight systems, and autonomous orbital flight, reentry and landing.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EX-37B Returns to Earth\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBloomberg reports \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.businessweek.com\/articles\/2014-10-14\/x-37b-super-secret-spaceship-comes-back-to-earth-after-two-years#r=rss\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ESupersecret Spacecraft Comes Back to Earth After Two Years\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe U.S. Air Force has kept an unmanned space shuttle in orbit for the past two years, and it seems no one without security clearance knows what it’s been doing up there.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle, which can enter orbit and land without human intervention, is scheduled to touch down this week—the best guess is sometime on Tuesday—at Vandenberg Air Force Base, northwest of Santa Barbara, Calif. The landing will mark completion of the program’s third and longest mission, which was launched on Dec. 11, 2012. The Air Force has two such spacecraft for these low-earth orbit missions, all of which are classified, as are the precise launch and landing times.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“The mission is basically top secret,” says Captain Chris Hoyler, an Air Force spokesman.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe spacecraft measures 29 feet long and 9.5 feet high, about one-fifth the size of the retired NASA space shuttles that seem to have inspired its appearance. It has a payload bay that opens in space, just like the larger space shuttles. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe X-37B “is clearly a military program that no one has necessarily felt the need to justify politically,” says Laura Grego, a senior scientist in the global security program at the Union of Concerned Scientists. She says the spacecraft’s likely missions could probably be handled by satellites and other platforms at lower cost to taxpayers.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMarco Caceres, a space analyst with Teal Group, says the Air Force is most likely interested in having a surveillance platform that can “maneuver in orbit faster” than satellites. Darpa is also working on a new hypersonic “spaceplane” called the XS-1 that could offer quick access to space and launch payloads into orbit for less than $5 million per flight. “Quick, affordable, and routine access to space is increasingly critical for U.S. Defense Department operations,” the agency said in its call for proposals for the spacecraft late last year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAs with many top-secret Pentagon programs, speculation has flourished online about what the government is doing with the spacecraft. Theories range from surveillance to, well, more surveillance involving satellites that are so secretive they can only be released in space. Others have suggested the craft is the platform for a new generation of kinetic weapons that can be used from space. \u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EXB-37 Image\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-imt38UtVBxQ\/VD3JoNO1wAI\/AAAAAAAAbAQ\/AI32tznhqFQ\/s1600\/XB37.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-imt38UtVBxQ\/VD3JoNO1wAI\/AAAAAAAAbAQ\/AI32tznhqFQ\/s400\/XB37.png\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ERods From God\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBloomberg linked to a Popular Science article \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.popsci.com\/scitech\/article\/2004-06\/rods-god\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ERods from God\u003C\/a\u003E depicting \"Space-launched darts that strike like meteors\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-f8H2fwPc4Qo\/VD3IZgmn7MI\/AAAAAAAAa_8\/cOradDNecNY\/s1600\/rods%2Bfrom%2Bgod.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-f8H2fwPc4Qo\/VD3IZgmn7MI\/AAAAAAAAa_8\/cOradDNecNY\/s400\/rods%2Bfrom%2Bgod.png\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EClearly we need more ways to kill each other from space because we are too inefficient here. Besides, government spending adds directly to GDP. So after we complete the mission on earth, we can bomb the heck out of Mars.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike  \"Mish\"  Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com \u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/3709350912039845604\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=3709350912039845604\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/3709350912039845604"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/3709350912039845604"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/top-secret-spacecraft-returns-to-earth.html","title":"Top Secret Spacecraft Returns to Earth This Week After Two Years in Space;  Rods From God"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-imt38UtVBxQ\/VD3JoNO1wAI\/AAAAAAAAbAQ\/AI32tznhqFQ\/s72-c\/XB37.png","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-4648238159387713783"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-14T12:41:00.004-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-14T12:41:35.594-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Stock Buybacks Peaked With Stock Market in 2007: History About to Repeat?"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Variant Perception has an interesting post out today on stock market buybacks: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/blog.variantperception.com\/2014\/10\/10\/pillars-of-equity-rally-fall-away\/?utm_source=VP+Updates\u0026amp;utm_campaign=1db8f03806-RSS_EMAIL_BLOG_WEEKLY\u0026amp;utm_medium=email\u0026amp;utm_term=0_e19841ce98-1db8f03806-407656189\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EPillars of Equity Rally Fall Away\u003C\/a\u003E.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EStock buybacks have been an important feature of the equity rally. Companies have used low rates and easy credit to borrow money and used it to buy their own shares back. An identity for a company’s share price is: S = (revenues * margins * P\/E) \/ # of shares. Buying back shares reduces the denominator in this equation, thus (all other things equal) boosting the stock price. But buybacks are waning; the chart below shows a 27% decline in buybacks between 1Q14 and 2Q14.\u0026nbsp; YoY it is down 1.6%. (Interestingly, the peak in buybacks was also the peak in the US stock market in 2007.) - \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-n7j01qszlNk\/VD1cBHIwV2I\/AAAAAAAAa_U\/0zkhl5rpXBE\/s1600\/buybacks.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-n7j01qszlNk\/VD1cBHIwV2I\/AAAAAAAAa_U\/0zkhl5rpXBE\/s400\/buybacks.png\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ERevenues are closely linked to nominal GDP, and our US leading indicator sees this as lacklustre at best going forward.\u0026nbsp; Margins we have discussed in previous reports.\u0026nbsp; Our leading indicator for wages has turned up, and this tends to lead to lower profit margins.\u0026nbsp; Finally, multiple expansion has been a big driver of equity returns in 2012 and 2013, accounting for about 75% of returns.\u0026nbsp; However, already in 2014 it is slipping, down from 67% in May to under 50% today (chart below).\u0026nbsp; In short, the pillars of equity performance are crumbling, making it difficult to see how equities can remain supported between now and into early next year. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-_ADAVZlRQcA\/VD1cpGy05rI\/AAAAAAAAa_c\/8Tmr3rJg2ss\/s1600\/Source%2Bof%2BGrowth.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-_ADAVZlRQcA\/VD1cpGy05rI\/AAAAAAAAa_c\/8Tmr3rJg2ss\/s400\/Source%2Bof%2BGrowth.png\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EConventional Wisdom vs. Reality\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EConventional wisdom says earnings growth is the primary driver for stock performance. It's not. The price investors are willing to pay for stocks is the key driver.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn 2012 nearly 70% of share price increases were due to willingness of investors to accept higher PEs. In 2013, nearly 80% of the stock market rally is attributable to higher PEs.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EShiller 10-Year PE\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-SAaXE7OlACo\/VD1etmnA05I\/AAAAAAAAa_o\/f80NC1dCbwI\/s1600\/Shiller%2BPE.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-SAaXE7OlACo\/VD1etmnA05I\/AAAAAAAAa_o\/f80NC1dCbwI\/s400\/Shiller%2BPE.png\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFollowing the massive rally over the past several years, stocks are at one of the highest \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.multpl.com\/shiller-pe\/\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E10-year smoothed PEs\u003C\/a\u003E in history exceeded only by the bubbles in 2000, 2007, and 1929. For a description of the methodology, please see \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/p\/pe10ratio.asp\"\u003E'P\/E 10 Ratio'\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike  \"Mish\"  Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com \u0026nbsp;    \u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/4648238159387713783\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=4648238159387713783\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/4648238159387713783"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/4648238159387713783"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/stock-buybacks-peaked-with-stock-market.html","title":"Stock Buybacks Peaked With Stock Market in 2007: History About to Repeat?"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-n7j01qszlNk\/VD1cBHIwV2I\/AAAAAAAAa_U\/0zkhl5rpXBE\/s72-c\/buybacks.png","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-5923196302965657243"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-14T11:37:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-14T11:37:37.355-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Australian Dollar Too High, Markets Face 'Violent' Crash, says RBA Official "},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"In June of 2011 it took about $1.10 to buy an Australian dollar. Today it takes about 87 cents.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn the game of competitive currency debasement that's not low enough for Guy Debelle, a Reserve Bank of Australia official. Debelle says \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.smh.com.au\/business\/markets\/currencies\/markets-facing-violent-crash-australian-dollar-too-high-says-rba-official-guy-debelle-20141014-115nwf.html#ixzz3G55KOeMV\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EMarkets Face 'Violent' Crash, Australian Dollar Too High\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EReserve Bank assistant governor Guy Debelle has warned against a 'violent' market crash while reiterating the Australian dollar is overvalued.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESpeaking at the Citi Annual Australian and New Zealand investment conference in Sydney, Dr Debelle said the Australian dollar was still too high despite falling by about six per cent against the US dollar in September.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\"The Australian dollar has depreciated in recent weeks, but on a tradeweighted basis is only back to levels of earlier in the year,\" he said.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ECiting the 1994 global bond market crash as a \"good example,\" Dr Debelle said there were several reasons to suspect that the next sell-off, particularly in fixed income, \"could be relatively violent when it comes\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EDr Debelle said heightened tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, uncertainty about US monetary policy and about the direction of Europe and Japan, and concern about the strength of the Chinese economy would normally be sufficient to push volatility measures much higher.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMr Debelle said he struggled to explain investor complacency.\"One thing which is certain is that the low volatility will not persist.\" \u003C\/blockquote\u003EMike  \"Mish\"  Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com \u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/5923196302965657243\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=5923196302965657243\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/5923196302965657243"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/5923196302965657243"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/australian-dollar-too-high-markets-face.html","title":"Australian Dollar Too High, Markets Face 'Violent' Crash, says RBA Official "}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-4814515212271503286"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-14T00:53:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-14T00:58:18.737-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"UKIP Support Hits Record High 25% of Voters; Let's Be Clear: Cameron Clearly a Fake Conservative Liar"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Support for UKIP (United Kingdom Independence Party) hit a record high 25% following recent elections that gave UKIP its first ever seat in the British parliament.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EStill that's one seat out of 650. Is UKIP anything Cameron's Tory party or Labour need fear?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn case you don't already know, the answer can be found in \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.euractiv.com\/sections\/uk-europe\/poll-support-ukip-hits-record-high-309120\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EPoll: Support for UKIP Hits Record High\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ESupport for the anti-EU UK Independence Party hit a record high of 25%, an opinion poll showed yesterday (12 October), days after it won its first elected seat in Britain's parliament at the expense of Prime Minister David Cameron's party.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe survey suggested that UKIP, which favours a British exit from the European Union and tighter immigration controls, could pick up more seats than previously thought in a national election next year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EUKIP's rise threatens Cameron's re-election drive by splitting the right-wing vote, increases the likelihood of another coalition government, and poses a challenge to the left-leaning opposition Labour party in northern England too.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EUKIP won its first elected seat in parliament by a landslide in a by-election on Thursday, after a parliamentarian from Cameron's centre-right Conservatives defected and took almost 60 percent of the vote.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBefore Sunday, most polling experts had forecast it could win only a handful of the 650 seats in parliament in 2015.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBut based on the result of the Survation poll for \u003Ci\u003EThe Mail\u003C\/i\u003E on Sunday, the party could win more than 100 seats in 2015, the newspaper quoted a pollster as saying.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESupport for the Conservatives and Labour was tied at 31%, according to the poll, which was based on interviews with 1,003 people nationwide.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ELabour leader Ed Miliband, whose party came within a whisker of losing a seat in northern England to UKIP on Friday, wrote in The Observer newspaper that he recognised that UKIP was \"tapping into a seam of discontent and despair that Labour cannot - and will not - ignore.\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMiliband signalled his party would not respond with a knee-jerk policy change, but would stick to its re-election plan to promise a higher minimum wage and more money for the country's health service. \u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EInteresting Labour Response\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMiliband responds to voter sentiment shifting to the right, with an even stronger shift to the left.\u0026nbsp; He seeks to splinter UKIP from the Cameron's Tory party, hoping to win the next election.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIndeed, Cameron now warns British citizens that a vote for UKIP is a vote for Labour.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EWho's Bluffing Whom?\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe \u003Ci\u003EDaily Mail\u003C\/i\u003E reports \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.dailymail.co.uk\/news\/article-2777565\/Go-bed-Miliband-wake-Farage-Cameron-jokes-warning-vote-UKIP-hand-power-Labour.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E'Go to bed with Farage, wake up with Miliband,' Cameron jokes in warning that a vote for UKIP will hand power to Labour\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMr Cameron insisted that a vote for UKIP would only make a Labour government more likely. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHe told the Conservative conference: \"\u003Ci\u003ELet's be clear\u003C\/i\u003E. This is a straight fight. It doesn't matter whether Parliament is hung, drawn or quartered, there is only one real choice. The Conservatives or Labour. Me in Downing Street, or Ed Miliband in Downing Street. If you vote UKIP – that's really a vote for Labour.\"\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ECameron Clearly a Liar\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\"\u003Ci\u003EHere's a thought: On 7th May you could go to bed with  Nigel Farage, and wake up with Ed Miliband. I don't know about you but  not one bit of that works for me,\u003C\/i\u003E\" said Cameron.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere's the equally valid alternative thought: If you vote for Cameron, you will wind up in bed with Ed Miliband and Labour.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESo by all means, \"\u003Ci\u003Elet's be clear\u003C\/i\u003E\". Cameron is clearly a liar. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EWho Do You Trust?\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ECameron asks, \"\u003Ci\u003EWhen it comes to Britain's future, who do you trust? Labour – the party of something-for-nothing, and human wrongs under the banner of human rights, or the Conservatives – who believe in something for something, and reward for hard work?\u003C\/i\u003E\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThat is not only a false choice, but a blatantly obvious one at that. Is there not a third party with 25% popular support?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ECameron could easily win reelection if he would put the EU referendum on the ballot right now. But he won't.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWhy?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBecause Cameron is a fake conservative, clueless about the real meaning of the word.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike  \"Mish\"  Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com \u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/4814515212271503286\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=4814515212271503286\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/4814515212271503286"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/4814515212271503286"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/ukip-support-hits-record-high-25-of.html","title":"UKIP Support Hits Record High 25% of Voters; Let's Be Clear: Cameron Clearly a Fake Conservative Liar"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-8570787434565398230"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-13T13:38:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-13T13:57:49.601-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"End of U.S. Dollar Hegemony - Not"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Is the end of US dollar hegemony at hand?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EInquiring minds may be asking that question given \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/2014-10-11\/china-s-zhou-says-some-countries-using-yuan-in-reserves.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EChina’s Zhou Says Some Countries Using Yuan in Reserves\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ESome countries are already using the Chinese yuan in their foreign-currency reserves without announcing it publicly, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWhile China’s yuan has begun to be used as a reserve currency for several years, some countries “may not be willing to say so,” Zhou told Bloomberg on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EChina has stepped up efforts to promote the yuan’s use overseas since the global financial crisis, as expansion in the world’s second-largest economy provides more clout while Europe has yet to fully recover. The European Central Bank will discuss next week whether to begin laying the groundwork to add the Chinese yuan to its foreign-currency reserves, Bloomberg reported yesterday. \u003C\/blockquote\u003EOver the course of the past decade there has been countless articles on the end of US dollar supremacy, the crash of the dollar, and the rise of the Yuan and Ruble. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ERecent Examples\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003ELibertarian News, August 27, 2014: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.libertariannews.org\/2014\/08\/27\/petrodollar-tyranny-coming-to-an-end-as-russia-china-trade-oil-without-dollars\/\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EPetrodollar Tyranny Coming To An End As Russia-China Trade Oil Without Dollars\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EZerohedge, August 27, 2014: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2014-08-27\/gazprom-begins-accepting-payment-oil-ruble-yuan\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ENail In The Petrodollar Coffin: Gazprom Begins Accepting Payment For Oil In Ruble, Yuan\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EKitco, August 26, 2014: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.kitco.com\/ind\/Maund\/2014-08-26-Will-the-US-Succeed-in-Breaking-Russia-to-Maintain-Dollar-Hegemony.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EWill the US Succeed in Breaking Russia to Maintain Dollar Hegemony?\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EZerohedge, August 5, 2014: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2014-08-05\/rise-petroyuan-and-slow-erosion-dollar-hegemony\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EThe Rise of the Petroyuan and the Slow Erosion of Dollar Hegemony\u003C\/a\u003E \u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EThe Telegraph, July 19, 2014: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/finance\/comment\/liamhalligan\/10978178\/The-dollars-70-year-dominance-is-coming-to-an-end.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EThe dollar's 70-year dominance is coming to an end\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EGlobal Research, April 08, 2014:\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.globalresearch.ca\/russias-petro-ruble-challenges-us-dollar-hegemony-china-seeks-development-of-eurasian-trade\/5377086\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E Russia’s Petro-Ruble Challenges US Dollar Hegemony. China Seeks Development of Eurasian Trade\u003C\/a\u003E. \"Russia has just dropped another bombshell, announcing not only the de-coupling of its trade from the dollar, but also that its hydrocarbon trade will in the future be carried out in rubles and local currencies of its trading partners – no longer in dollars.\"\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EGold Silver World,\u0026nbsp; January 7, 2014: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/goldsilverworlds.com\/money-currency\/signs-of-a-cracking-dollar-hegemony\/\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ESigns of A Cracking Dollar Hegemony\u003C\/a\u003E \u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EZerohedge, November 21, 2013: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2013-11-21\/china-fires-shot-across-petrodollar-bow-shanghai-futures-exchange-may-price-crude-oi\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EChina Fires Shot Across Petrodollar Bow: Shanghai Futures Exchange May Price Crude Oil Futures In Yuan\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EFinancial Post, October 4, 2012: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/business.financialpost.com\/2012\/10\/04\/china-mounts-challenge-to-dollars-hegemony\/\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EChina mounts challenge to dollar’s hegemony\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPrime Petrodollar Nonsense\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe most ludicrous of the above articles is by Clive Maund on Kitco. It's a perfect example of misguided, overblown, petrodollar hype.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe central thesis of these articles is \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Col\u003E\u003Cli\u003EIt takes dollars to buy oil\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EOil is starting to trade in yuan and rubles\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EOil will start trading in other currencies \u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003ECollapse of the dollar is at hand\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EYuan will soon supplant the Dollar as world's reserve currency \u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ol\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe starting thesis that it takes dollars to buy oil is wrong.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAs I have pointed out for at least a decade, it does not take dollars to buy oil any more than it takes dollars to buy gold.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EGold is priced in dollars. But you can walk into any coin store in the UK and buy gold with British Pounds; You can walk into any coin store in China and buy gold in Renminbi (yuan); And you can walk into any coin store in France and buy gold with euros. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOil is priced in dollars. So what? Currencies are fungible. Even if one did need dollars to buy oil (they don't), the pound, Swiss francs, euros, and every other major currency on the planet can instantaneously be exchanged for any other currency at will. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThat holds true at both the front and back end. Thus, there is no need for Saudi Arabia (or any other oil exporter) to demand euros, or francs, or whatever, when the exporters can instantaneously convert to whatever freely traded currency they want.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ERegardless of the pricing unit, one does not need to stockpile dollars to buy oil. If oil was priced in euros across the board right now, it would not make a damn bit of difference. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EQuestions for Yuan Lovers\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPlease note that in spite of all the yuan reserve currency hype, one currency that is not freely convertible is the Yuan.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWhen will China have the biggest, most open bond market in the world? Next year? A decade? three decades? \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI ask these questions because until China has the biggest, most open bond market, a freely floating currency, and it eliminates currency controls, there is no chance the Yuan will supplant the dollar. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd what about political freedoms and global trust? Will a centrally planned undemocratic economy like China ever get that trust?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPetrodollar Silliness Way Back \u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI talked about the silliness of the petrodollar thesis as early as 2005. (See \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2005\/10\/oil-priced-in-euros-would-it-matter.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EOil Priced in Euros. Would it matter?\u003C\/a\u003E)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn 2009, we saw \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2009\/10\/ridiculous-hype-over-secret-oil.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ERidiculous Hype Over Secret Oil Meetings\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor discussion of another truly ridiculous idea, please consider \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2009\/08\/countdown-to-dollar-implosion-madness.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ECountdown To Dollar Implosion Madness\u003C\/a\u003E in which the dollar was supposed to collapse in favor of a \"\u003Ci\u003ESuper Sovereign Currency\u003C\/i\u003E\" demanded by China.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESuch stories have continued at an endless pace for over a decade. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI bring this all up because of an interesting email from Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPettis on Chinese Reform, Currency, and Interest Rate Deregulation\u003C\/b\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn his email, Pettis writes about China's reform, China's banking solvency, currency controls, and other topics related to possibility the yuan will become the next reserve currency.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom Michael Pettis (\u003Ci\u003Eemphasis mine\u003C\/i\u003E)...\u0026nbsp;  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ERecent rumors that Zhou Xiaochuan will retire as governor of the PBoC should not be interpreted as an indication that Beijing has changed its mind about the urgency of reform. Given Zhou’s age, it was unlikely that he would remain in his seat for very long, and in fact if these rumors are true, they may simply reflect recognition by Beijing that as the reforms are implemented, conditions are likely to become tougher. Replacing Zhou at a later date would then be more damaging then replacing him now.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EContrary to some of the speculation, if Zhou retires soon I don’t think it would imply that there has been a change in policy or policy objectives. Zhou has always been considered as one of the most determined and articulate of the reformers, warning about the perils of excess credit expansion as long ago as 2006-07. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe kinds of reforms that Zhou is believed consistently to have championed are pretty much the liberalizing reforms that will open the Chinese economy up to a far more efficient and productive use of domestic resources. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ECurrency and Interest Rate Deregulation\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EZhou is also considered to be one of the main supporters of systematic efforts to speed up the internationalization of the RMB, the political implications of which are a little murkier. A relaxation of currency controls of course makes it easier for capital to flow into and out of the country, which benefits wealthy individuals eager either to stash money abroad or to bring in outside money quickly to take advantage of domestic profit opportunities, but \u003Ci\u003EI am not sure how aware people outside of monetary circles are that removing capital controls is an extremely risky strategy\u003C\/i\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003EChina has a rigid, unsophisticated, and largely insolvent financial system with vague delineations between what is and what isn’t implicitly guaranteed by local governments or by Beijing. Managers have little experience of risk management.\u003C\/i\u003E An elimination of capital controls and a significant increase in the use of the RMB in international trade and capital flows (currently it is a little more actively traded than the Mexican peso, and its use over the past two years has grown slightly faster) could subject the banking system, especially given the uncertainty that surrounds the Chinese economy, to shifts in capital flows. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003EI don’t think China’s banking system can handle the risk, especially of large inflows followed by sudden massive outflows. These could easily destabilize the Chinese economy at a time when it is most vulnerable.\u003C\/i\u003E I have heard some analysts, both Chinese and foreign, argue that this kind of risk can be managed by the simple expedient of restoring capital controls as soon as there is a problem, as Malaysia did in response to the 1997 crisis, but it isn’t quite as easy as all that. Regulators are always eager to try to calm markets down whenever a rise in uncertainty threatens to become destabilizing, and to impose capital controls during a period of uncertainty is almost guaranteed to increase the uncertainty substantially. At any rate, \u003Ci\u003Eduring the nearly thirteen years I have lived in China, the elimination of capital controls was always something to be expected within the next five years, and I personally never believed then, nor do I believe now, that we were or are likely to see significant relaxation of capital controls anytime in the foreseeable future.\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere have been rumors that Governor Zhou understands this risk, but had nonetheless pressed forward on the issue of currency deregulation largely because, frustrated by the slow pace of financial sector liberalization, he saw this as a way of exerting pressure on the pace of domestic reform. In that case if he were indeed to retire very soon, the timetable for RMB internationalization, such as it is, would probably be pushed back. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBecause he had also personally committed very strongly to interest rate liberalization within two years, which, unlike currency deregulation, I believe is an important goal and a plausible timetable, there is a chance that if he does indeed retire soon, the next governor might not feel the same commitment to maintain the schedule. In that case over the next two years, during which time I expect nominal GDP growth to drop by at least 2-3%, pressure by powerful vested interests for whom access to cheap capital was their primary economic advantage might cause the PBoC postpone interest rate deregulation and perhaps even to lower interest rates. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIf Zhou leaves, the goal of weaning SOEs and local governments off their addiction to credit would remain, but the cries of pain would be heard a little more sympathetically. Policy objectives, in other words, are unlikely to be changed if Governor Zhou were to retire, but the timing of the reforms might be extended, especially of those reforms to which Zhou had a personal commitment. Zhou had a prestige both domestically and internationally that will be hard to match, and he probably would have found it easier than his replacement to press his views on the president and the premier.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EChina is slowly moving in the right direction and inevitably the long delay it allowed before rebalancing the economy means that the process will be very difficult and bumpy. There will be steps forward followed by steps backward, as Beijing balances one group against another, but I don’t think we should read too much into events yet. It will take at least another six months to one year before we can say for sure whether or not Beijing has consolidated power enough to rebalance the economy successfully. Until then, we need to be patient. Each step backwards does not mean the end of the reform process.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EHype vs. Reality\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor all the hype, the Yuan trades as actively as the Mexican Peso. Yes, this will change, s.l.o.w.l.y. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ERight now, the US Has ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003EThe largest, freest capital market in the world.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EThe largest bond market in the world.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EA freely floating currency. \u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EPolitical freedom.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EStrong property laws.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EDemocratic form of government.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ETrade Math\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBy the way, it's important to note that foreign governments accumulate US dollars as a function of math.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor example, the US runs a trade deficit with China. China must accumulate US dollars (or US dollar assets such as US treasuries). Those who argue otherwise, do not understand the trade mechanics.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESure, there will be more trading in currencies other than the dollar over time. But the idea that the yuan will soon rein supreme is complete silliness.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EAll Things End\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAll things come to an end, including US dollar supremacy. Yet, don't expect a miraculous rise of the yuan or anything related to the seriously misguided petrodollar and petroyuan theories.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAs Pettis points out \"\u003Ci\u003EChina has a rigid, unsophisticated, and largely insolvent financial  system with vague delineations between what is and what isn’t implicitly  guaranteed by local governments or by Beijing.\u003C\/i\u003E\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ECurrency Crisis Awaits\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EChina is indeed \"\u003Ci\u003Elargely insolvent\u003C\/i\u003E\" to phrase things politely. But, it's not just China. The entire global financial system is insolvent. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EA global currency crisis can start anywhere, at any time. Three likely places to look are the euro, the yen, and the yuan.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn baseball parlance, Euroland is the batter's box and Japan is on deck. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIf a global currency crisis does start soon, then gold, the much maligned US dollar, and US treasuries will likely be the beneficiaries, not the illiquid yuan.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPrecisely what the next currency system will look like is unknown. But if the system changes in a major way, neither the yuan nor the US dollar will be at the heart of it.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike  \"Mish\"  Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/8570787434565398230\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=8570787434565398230\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/8570787434565398230"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/8570787434565398230"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/end-of-us-dollar-hegemony-not.html","title":"End of U.S. Dollar Hegemony - Not"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-2152513117966112466"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-12T22:32:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-12T22:58:20.283-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"McCain Calls for Ground Troops in Syria and an Ebola Czar; Secret Friends "},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"I am seriously starting to wonder if Senator John McCain has lost his mind.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn 2009, the Senator complained \"\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.politifact.com\/truth-o-meter\/statements\/2009\/jun\/12\/john-mccain\/McCain-says-Obama-has-more-czars-than-Romanovs\/\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EObama has more czars than the Romanovs\u003C\/a\u003E.\" Today, \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.huffingtonpost.com\/2014\/10\/12\/john-mccain-ebola-czar_n_5972988.html\"\u003EJohn McCain, Czar Hater, Calls For Ebola Czar\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ESen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) believes President Barack Obama should appoint a \"czar\" to lead America's response to Ebola.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\"From spending time here in Arizona, my constituents are not comforted. There has to be more reassurance given to them. I would say that we don't know exactly who's in charge. There has to be some kind of czar,\" McCain said Sunday on CNN's \"State of the Union.\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOther Republicans have also seemingly changed their minds on the issue. Rep. Jack Kingston (R-Ga.), who once introduced the \"Czar Accountability and Reform Act\" to cut off funding for czars, said earlier this month that Obama needed to appoint such an official to help unify the government's response to Ebola.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EWhy Don't We Have an Ebola Czar?\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe correct answer should be \"\u003Ci\u003EWe don't have an ebola czar because we do not need one. If created, the position would never go away once created, and we have too many czars already\u003C\/i\u003E\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EInstead, let's assume ebola control belongs in the hands of the surgeon general. With that assumption, we do not have an ebola czar because the NRA put the kibosh on Obama's Surgeon Gen. nominee, Regina Benjamin.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI am not here to debate the merits or lack thereof of Regina Benjamin. I do not know her medical qualifications. I will say that her 2012 tweet calling guns \"a health care issue\" seems quite reasonable. And for that tweet, her appointment has been blocked.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EEbola vs. Firearm Homicides \u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Center for Disease Control reports there were \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/nchs\/fastats\/homicide.htm\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E11,068 firearm homicides\u003C\/a\u003E in 2011. In 2014 there has been 1 ebola death.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003ERegardless of one's position on handgun control\u003C\/i\u003E, here's a simple question: what's the bigger health-care issue? \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EYet, instead of a Surgeon General, McCain wants an ebola Czar, even though he whined Obama has too many czars.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIf you were looking for proof McCain has lost his marbles, you now have it.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EMcCain Calls for Ground Troops in Syria\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ELooking for more proof McCain has lost his marbles? If so, please consider \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2014\/oct\/12\/mccain-isis-syria-iraq-strategy\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EMcCain urges ground troops to defeat Isis: 'They're winning, and we're not'\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ESenator John McCain has warned that the Islamic State (Isis) is winning in Iraq and Syria, and that the United States needs to deploy ground troops if it is to stave off defeat.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESenator John McCain has warned that the Islamic State (Isis) is winning in Iraq and Syria, and that the United States needs to deploy ground troops if it is to stave off defeat.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Arizona Republican urged a “\u003Ci\u003Efundamental re-evaluation\u003C\/i\u003E” of US strategy on Sunday, as the extremist group, which is the target of US-led international air strikes, continued to advance into the Kurdish town of Kobani in Syria, near the border with Turkey, and towards the Iraqi capital, Baghdad.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“They’re winning, and we’re not,” McCain told CNN. “The Iraqis are not winning. The Peshmerga, the Kurds are not winning.”\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ESecret Friends\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere's an interesting snip from the same article... \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EJames Baker, a secretary of state under the first President Bush, told NBC he would not be surprised if Iran was secretly helping the US against Isis, a common foe. Henry Kissinger, another former secretary of state, told the same programme Iran was a potential US ally.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ERice, however, said Iran remained outside the US-led coalition against Isis. “We’re not in coordination or direct consultation with the Iranians,” she said.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EFundamental Reevaluation\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI agree with McCain that the US needs a fundamental reevaluation of US foreign policy.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBut instead of ground troops, this is what I propose ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Col\u003E\u003Cli\u003EFirst, let's scrap the failed idea of \"nation building\".\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003ESecond, we need an assessment of who our friends and enemies really are.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EThird, we should think three times before we send US troops in harm's way.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EFourth, if we do send US troops in harm's way we should have an honest discussion of\u0026nbsp; how much it will cost, how we will pay for it, and why it's necessary.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EFifth, we should defend our borders, not every border in the world (typically based on whether the region has oil or not).\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ol\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike  \"Mish\"  Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/2152513117966112466\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=2152513117966112466\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/2152513117966112466"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/2152513117966112466"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/mccain-calls-for-ground-troops-in-syria.html","title":"McCain Calls for Ground Troops in Syria and an Ebola Czar; Secret Friends "}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-6410891198490719910"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-11T21:26:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-12T21:00:03.426-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Snowden Film \"Citizen Four\" Reveals How He Did It; Second Leaker Involved; Files on 1.2 Million People; Snowden Vindicated "},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Once again I salute Edward Snowden as an all-American hero. On second thought, make that an all-world hero.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EA movie on how and why Snowden revealed NSA wiretaps is about to be released.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EShowbiz reports \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.showbiz411.com\/2014\/10\/10\/edward-snowden-doc-premieres-shocking-inside-look-at-how-he-did-it\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EEdward Snowden Doc Premieres: Shocking Inside Look at How He Did It\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ECitizen Four is the shocking doc about Edward Snowden made by Glenn Greenwald and Laura Poitras. Just screened tonight was the two hour film which will be released by the Weinstein Company this month. It doesn’t paint the Obama administration in a very good light as Snowden explains how the government has violated privacy rights on a massive scale.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAlso the filmmakers clearly indicate that all roads lead to POTUS, a fairly serious accusation. There may be serious repercussions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThen there’s the Hollywoodization of Snowden. The detail of how and why Snowden went about this is pretty surprising considering how the 29 year old former NSA employee says he wants his own privacy and not to be a celebrity. It’s instructive to see his evolution from eyeglass wearing nerd to contact lenses and moussed up hair sporting hero of his own thriller. It’s all very Tom Cruise. Even the beautiful girlfriend sets up housekeeping with him in Moscow. Nevertheless as the details of the NSA’s programs are revealed Snowden says, “This isn’t science fiction. It’s really happening.”\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ESnowden Vindicated \u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ELet's turn to where it all started: The Guardian. Snowden made his revelations to Guardian reporter Glen Greenwald. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPlease consider \u003Ci\u003EThe Guardian\u003C\/i\u003E article \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/film\/2014\/oct\/11\/citizenfour-review-snowden-vindicated-poitras-nsa-journalism\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ECitizenfour Review – Poitras' Victorious Film Shows Snowden Vindicated\u003C\/a\u003E.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ECitizenfour must have been a maddening documentary to film. Its subject is pervasive global surveillance, an enveloping digital act that spreads without visibility, so its scenes unfold in courtrooms, hearing chambers and hotels. Yet the virtuosity of Laura Poitras, its director and architect, makes its 114 minutes crackle with the nervous energy of revelation.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAt its heart, Citizenfour is the story of how Snowden’s disclosures unfolded through Poitras’ eyes, from the first communications Snowden sends Poitras, hinting at what is to come, until Snowden sees himself vindicated through emulation. (The film is named for a pseudonym Snowden used with Poitras.) The time before Poitras meets Snowden is symbolized by a car travelling through a pitch-black tunnel, barely illuminated by the glowing red lights on the ceiling, until sunlight bursts in when she and her colleagues Glenn Greenwald and the Guardian’s Ewen MacAskill arrive in Hong Kong for their fateful encounter.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccessibly explaining how surveillance works, and why it matters, only gets more challenging the deeper you dig into the NSA trove. At the Guardian, it consumed exhausting months’ worth of background reporting, verification and endless revisions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESince June 2013, Snowden has been a cipher to the world, often yielding paranoid reactions (Russian spy! Chinese dupe!) from people understandably curious about his motives. It may be too late to change people’s minds about Snowden, at least so soon after his leaks. But the Snowden who Poitras shows – hair tousled, resisting his attempts at styling it – is determined, sincere and human.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWhile often portrayed as arrogant, especially by self-interested surveillance bureaucrats, Snowden tells Poitras, Greenwald and MacAskill that he wants journalists and not himself to decide what ought to be public. He is possessed with an uncanny calm as he is about to become forever targeted. Yet Snowden’s eyes redden and his shoulders stoop when he grasps the burden he is placing on his family and girlfriend – with whom he is now reunited in Russia, a place in which he never intended to live.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EGiven the passions that the NSA disclosures have generated, it’s remarkable how tempered Citizenfour comes across. Reflecting a style Poitras seems to share with Snowden, it’s a quiet movie, its soundtrack a sinister digital throb, packed tight with questions about how we live freely in an unseen dragnet. One of its only boisterous moments comes when Snowden and Greenwald discuss the spirit animating both the reporting and Snowden’s decision to reveal himself. Greenwald describes it as “the fearlessness and the f*ck-you”.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThat fearlessness attracted Snowden to Poitras, and it shows through her camera.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ECitizenfour opens in US cinemas on 24 October. \u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ESecond Leaker Involved\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPlease note \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2014\/oct\/11\/second-leaker-in-us-intelligence-says-glenn-greenwald\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ESecond leaker in US intelligence, says Glenn Greenwald\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe investigative journalist Glenn Greenwald has found a second leaker inside the US intelligence agencies, according to a new documentary about Edward Snowden that premiered in New York on Friday night. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETowards the end of filmmaker Laura Poitras’s portrait of Snowden – titled Citizenfour, the label he used when he first contacted her – Greenwald is seen telling Snowden about a second source. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESnowden, at a meeting with Greenwald in Moscow, expresses surprise at the level of information apparently coming from this new source. Greenwald, fearing he will be overheard, writes the details on scraps of paper. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe specific information relates to the number of the people on the US government’s watchlist of people under surveillance as a potential threat or as a suspect. The figure is an astonishing 1.2 million. \u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EEdward Snowden's Girlfriend Living with Him in Moscow\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Guardian reports \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2014\/oct\/11\/edward-snowden-girlfriend-moscow-documentary-poitras\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EEdward Snowden's Girlfriend Living with Him in Moscow\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ELindsay Mills, thought to have been deserted by Snowden before NSA revelations, appears beside whistleblower in Citizenfour.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe mystery of the whereabouts of Edward Snowden’s long-time girlfriend is solved in a documentary that premiered in New York on Friday night: she has been living with the national security whistleblower in Russia since July.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe surprise revelation in the documentary, filmed by Laura Poitras, upends the widespread assumption that Snowden had deserted Lindsay Mills and that she, in a fit of pique, fled Hawaii where they had been living to stay with her parents in mainland US.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESince Snowden, a former NSA contractor, outed himself last year as being behind the biggest leak in US intelligence history, Mills has remained silent, giving no interviews or any hints of her feelings on the subject of her boyfriend or his actions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe two-hour long documentary, Citizenfour, shows Mills living in Russia with Snowden. \u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EGreenwald and Snowden are Heroes \u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe NSA has 1.2 million files on \"suspects\". Are there any files on president Obama for flagrant violations of the US Constitution?\u0026nbsp; If not, I suggest the NSA is targeting the wrong people.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI am proud to have been on the right side of this debate from day one.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI repeat my assertion \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/04\/glen-greenwald-wins-pulitzer-prize-for.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EGreenwald and Snowden are Heroes\u003C\/a\u003E. Greenwald is well deserving of the Pulitzer Prize he won for breaking this story.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003EMike  \"Mish\"  Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com \u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/6410891198490719910\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=6410891198490719910\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/6410891198490719910"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/6410891198490719910"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/snowden-film-citizen-four-reveals-how.html","title":"Snowden Film \"Citizen Four\" Reveals How He Did It; Second Leaker Involved; Files on 1.2 Million People; Snowden Vindicated "}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-5648186460315606950"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-10T17:09:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-13T23:51:04.966-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Indianapolis Airport Unveils Roaming Customer Service Robot on Wheels; Next Big Thing in Airport Customer Relations"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The ongoing effort to replace human workers with robots took an interesting turn today as \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.kokomotribune.com\/news\/state_news\/article_ddcad090-5088-11e4-b530-733b36f9b434.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EIndianapolis Airport Unveils Roaming Customer Service Robot on Wheels\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EA new customer service robot is now roaming around the passenger terminal of Indianapolis International Airport.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe robot was rolled out Thursday, with a staffer guiding it remotely around the baggage claim area greeting travelers and looking for anyone who needed assistance. The robot looks like a miniature Segway, but with a blue customer service shirt and an interactive iPod on top showing the employee piloting it.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-2HM60DtlPdo\/VDhWmYjWRnI\/AAAAAAAAa-w\/cZWbijG_pS0\/s1600\/Robot%2Bon%2BWheels.png\" imageanchor=\"1\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-2HM60DtlPdo\/VDhWmYjWRnI\/AAAAAAAAa-w\/cZWbijG_pS0\/s1600\/Robot%2Bon%2BWheels.png\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ENext Big Thing in Airport Customer Relations\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EUSA Today has a video of the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/nation\/2014\/10\/10\/robot-answers-questions-indianapolis-airport\/17022973\/\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EFriendly Indianapolis Airport Robot\u003C\/a\u003E answering questions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EDon't worry, the robot is not out to take your customer service job. Airport officials say the robot will complement, not replace, human workers. \u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThey forgot to add ... until we get the kinks worked out.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOf course, the higher the minimum wage, the faster they will get the kinks out.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike  \"Mish\"  Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com \u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/5648186460315606950\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=5648186460315606950\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/5648186460315606950"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/5648186460315606950"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/indianapolis-airport-unveils-roaming.html","title":"Indianapolis Airport Unveils Roaming Customer Service Robot on Wheels; Next Big Thing in Airport Customer Relations"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-2HM60DtlPdo\/VDhWmYjWRnI\/AAAAAAAAa-w\/cZWbijG_pS0\/s72-c\/Robot%2Bon%2BWheels.png","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-4832999194689459902"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-10T13:22:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-10T13:46:27.432-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Defense Dept. to Request $30-40 Billion a Year to Fight ISIS; History Lessons"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Anyone recall how the war in Iraq would pay for itself? That was the US Defense Department estimate in 2003.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENow some $3 trillion later (add in veterans’ benefits, depreciation of equipment, humanitarian aid, covert action, and paying for the military efforts of our coalition ‘partners' and the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/national-security\/study-iraq-afghan-war-costs-to-top-4-trillion\/2013\/03\/28\/b82a5dce-97ed-11e2-814b-063623d80a60_story.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ETotal Cost of Iraq, Afghan Wars is $4-6 Trillion\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ECome Hell or High Water\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThat $4 to $6 trillion Iraq, Afghan cost projection was made in 2013. That estimate assumed the costs would be winding down now. They won't. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOn September 30, 2014 Vice President Joe Biden's pledge to get out of Afghanistan \u003Ci\u003E\"come hell or high water by 2014\u003C\/i\u003E\" came to an abrupt halt when President Obama agreed to a deal to leave US troops in the country until 2024 \"\u003Ci\u003Eat least\u003C\/i\u003E\". \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor details and an assessment of that announcement, please see \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/09\/come-hell-or-high-water-morphs-into.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E\"Come Hell or High Water\" Promise Morphs Into \"Infinity and Beyond\"\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EHow Much Will Fighting ISIS Cost?\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBoston Globe writer Linda J. Bilmes asks \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/opinion\/2014\/10\/07\/fighting-islamic-state-how-much-will-cost\/xub6sT2eWP1k67t1HWBsFL\/story.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EFighting the Islamic State — how much will it cost?\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EPresident Obama and his military top brass have pronounced that the effort to defeat the Islamic State will be “long” — translation: expensive. The Pentagon has admitted to spending over $1 billion so far, with the current pace running at some $10 million per day. Todd Harrison of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments believes the annual bill for military operations will range from $4 billion to $22 billion, depending on duration, scope, and the extent to which ground forces get involved — which is becoming increasingly likely. Obama has ruled out sending troops, but it is clear the Pentagon has not given up on boots on the ground — they just may not be worn entirely by Americans.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETwelve months ago, the wartime culture of “endless money,” as former Defense Secretary Robert Gates dubbed it, with its endless “emergency” funding from Congress (nearly $2 trillion in more than 30 special funding bills) — was finally coming to an end. The Beltway was filled with talk of belt-tightening at the Department of Defense, including a 10-year $497-billion cut imposed by the so-called sequester. The Pentagon was proposing to shrink the size of the armed forces, trim military compensation and benefits, and mothball expensive weapons and military installations left over from the Cold War.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBut now that’s all so-last-fiscal-year. The new trend is ramping up Pentagon spending. At their press conference last week, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and Martin Dempsey, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, declared that they don’t have enough funding to conduct the operation against the Islamic State.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn addition, Congress is refusing to let the Pentagon make even modest changes to its current base benefit plan. This will surely encourage the department to ask for another blank check to pay for new operations. Requests are already mounting.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe combined cost of abandoning planned cutbacks at the Defense Department, new spending to combat the Islamic State, and extra foreign military assistance means that America will wind up spending up to $100 billion more on military activities than we had expected this year alone.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWashington assumes that we will simply borrow whatever is needed — and continue to pass the cost of today’s wars onto future generations. This feckless approach has already led to much higher national debt, as well as rampant waste and corruption in our military appropriations. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFinancing the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts with debt has hidden the true costs from public view. President Obama has just asked Americans to embark on another decade-long military engagement. He needs to propose a strategy for how it should be paid for, and what sacrifices will be required.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003E$100 Billion More Than Expected Already This Year Alone\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETodd Harrison of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments believes the bill will \"range from $4 billion to $22 billion\" annually, even though we are going to spend $100 billion more this year on defense than expected.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHow's that work? I'll tell you how: Money is pooled into an “Overseas Contingency Operation” \u003Ci\u003Eslush fund\u003C\/i\u003E and spent as the department wants. Moreover, veterans' benefits, medical treatment and numerous other war costs don't show up in any war-related buckets. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ENew U.S. Price Tag for the War Against ISIS: $40 Billion a Year\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn a 100% guaranteed to be underestimated cost analysis, the Fiscal Times reports \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.thefiscaltimes.com\/2014\/10\/10\/New-US-Price-Tag-War-Against-ISIS-40-Billion-Year\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ENew U.S. Price Tag for the War Against ISIS: $40 Billion a Year\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EWith the war against ISIS off to a rocky start, there are signs that the Obama administration is getting ready to up the ante substantially on weaponry, manpower and aid to allies – at a cost of an additional $3o billion to $40 billion a year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EEarlier, Gordon Adams, a military analyst at American University, told The Fiscal Times that the mission to stop ISIS will cost $15 billion to $20 billion annually, based on his “back of the envelope” calculations. Other analysts have made similar forecasts. But based on soundings of the defense establishment, Adams said Thursday that the Defense Department would almost certainly request funding of twice that level later this year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“I have consummate faith that they can get to $30 billion to $40 billion a year without breaking a sweat,” he added.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe estimated $30 billion to $40 billion of new spending would come on top of the Pentagon’s $496 billion fiscal 2015 operating budget for personnel and contractors and the roughly $58.6 billion in an “Overseas Contingency Operation” fund that is used to finance U.S. war operations in the Middle East. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe OCO, as it is known, has paid for the protracted U.S. military engagement in the Middle East with borrowing that adds to the long-term U.S. debt. If Adams’ projections are correct, then the OCO would total as much as $80 billion to $90 billion in the coming year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHowever, House Speaker John Boehner and other congressional Republican leaders are skeptical that Obama’s strategy can work without substantially more resources – including more ground troops. \u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EIraq War: Predictions Made, and Results\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ELet's take a look at previous predictions, when they were made, and how accurate they were, starting with a Christian Science Monitor report \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.csmonitor.com\/World\/Backchannels\/2011\/1222\/Iraq-war-Predictions-made-and-results\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EIraq War: Predictions Made, and Results\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EAhead of and shortly after the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, a number of officials, including former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and his deputy Paul Wolfowitz suggested the war could be done on the cheap and that it would largely pay for itself. In October 2003, Rumsfeld told a press conference about President Bush's request for $21 billion for Iraq and Afghan reconstruction that \"the $20 billion the president requested is not intended to cover all of Iraq's needs. The bulk of the funds for Iraq's reconstruction will come from Iraqis -- from oil revenues, recovered assets, international trade, direct foreign investment, as well as some contributions we've already received and hope to receive from the international community.\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn March 2003, Mr. Wolfowitz told Congress that \"\u003Ci\u003Ewe're really dealing with a country that could finance its own reconstruction.\u003C\/i\u003E\" In April 2003, the Pentagon said the war would cost about $2 billion a month, and in July of that year Rumsfeld increased that estimate to $4 billion.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EI believe we all know how that turned out.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ELost Cause\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOn July 24, 2010 I wrote \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2010\/07\/afghanistan-is-lost-cause-leaked.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EAfghanistan is a \"Lost Cause\"; Leaked Documents Show Futility of Afghanistan War\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe questions on my mind are: How many trillions of dollars do we have to spend, how many lives need to be wasted, and how much longer are we going to be involved in the boondoggle known as Afghanistan?\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe total amount of the waste and lives lost is unknown, but we now have an answer to my 2010 question: \u003Ci\u003E\"how much longer are we going to be involved in the boondoggle known as Afghanistan?\u003C\/i\u003E\". \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe unfortunate answer is \"\u003Ci\u003Euntil 2024 at least\u003C\/i\u003E\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHow much will fighting ISIS it really cost? No one can answer that now, but a safe \u003Ci\u003Estarting point\u003C\/i\u003E for discussion is somewhere between 10 and 100 times initial projections.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ETime for Self Assessment\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/06\/iraq-splinters-into-pieces-al-qaeda-in.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EIraq Splinters Into Pieces, Al Qaeda in Control of Several Cities, Kurds Take Oil City Kirkuk; Thank George Bush and the Neocons; Iraq Before and After\u003C\/a\u003E I held the Bush Administration largely responsible for this mess.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESure, president Obama made many mistakes but the initial, most damning mistake was the Iraq invasion and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn a follow-up post, \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/06\/assessing-blame-for-iraq-bush-obama.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EAssessing the Blame for Iraq: Bush, Obama, McCain, Others; Iraq Sunken Costs\u003C\/a\u003E I asked for self-assessment.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ETime for Self Assessment\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003EI can and do blame Obama for countless things. But Republicans would be very wise to self-assess on Iraq, on nation building, and on warmongering in general.\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EInstead of self-assessment, warmongers want more war. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EDeficit-Hawk Hypocrites \u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAs is always the case, John McCain leads the war rally cry in the Senate.\u0026nbsp; In the House, \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/politics\/2014\/09\/28\/boehner-troops-ground-syria-isil\/16382803\/\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ESpeaker John Boehner Says U.S. may have 'no choice' on combat troops\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENot once have these Republican deficit-hawk hypocrites said how they propose to pay for this. Not once has McCain ever placed the blame for ISIS where it belongs.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EISIS a U.S. Creation \u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EISIS is 100% a US creation. ISIS arose following inane US nation-building policies starting with the absurd belief the \"Iraq war would pay for itself.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis self-made mess produced \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/09\/strange-bedfellows-to-fight-isis-us-now.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EStrange Bedfellows: To Fight ISIS, US Now Supports Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Other Terror Groups\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI concluded \"\u003Ci\u003EStrange Bedfellows\u003C\/i\u003E\" with a warning \"Just remember ... To make matters worse, you have to begin somewhere.\" \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EHistory Lesson \u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI conclude this post with another history lesson: \"No mess is ever so big that it cannot be made worse by throwing more money at it.\" \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike  \"Mish\"  Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com \u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/4832999194689459902\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=4832999194689459902\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/4832999194689459902"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/4832999194689459902"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/defense-dept-to-request-30-40-billion.html","title":"Defense Dept. to Request $30-40 Billion a Year to Fight ISIS; History Lessons"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-8900118732113601018"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-09T15:45:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-10T13:58:23.687-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Panic Over Ebola: Airline Strikes, Banned Flights, Experimental Drugs  "},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003EEbola Epidemic Spreads\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPanic is in the air in some places over the deadly ebola virus. Is the panic justified? Is there any cure? How deadly is ebola compared to other viruses? How many have died so far? What can be done to stop the spread?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ELet's take a look at these questions starting with the number of deaths.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/gallery\/2014\/oct\/09\/ebola-epidemic-spreads-in-pictures\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EEbola Epidemic Spreads – In Pictures\u003C\/a\u003E The Guardian reports \"\u003Ci\u003EThe Ebola epidemic has killed more than 3,700 people in west Africa. Dozens of British military personnel are due to fly to Sierra Leone next week to help build medical facilities to combat the epidemic.\u003C\/i\u003E\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EFirst US Patient Dies\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2014\/10\/09\/health\/ebola-up-to-speed\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EMore Fears, More Measures as First Patient Diagnosed in the U.S. Dies\u003C\/a\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThomas Eric Duncan, the first person diagnosed with Ebola in the United States, died Wednesday, 10 days after he was admitted to a Texas hospital. His family wonders if the outcome would have been different if doctors had admitted Duncan to a hospital on September 25, the first time he showed up with a fever and stomach pain.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EQuarantine Stations, Ebola Questions, and Thermometers\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAt major US airports, \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2014\/10\/08\/health\/ebola-us-airport-screening\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EQuarantine Stations, Ebola Questions, and Thermometers Coming\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EAnyone traveling from ebola hotspots in Africa, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, to select US airports will get special screening and have their temperatures taken. The five airports are: New York's JFK, Washington Dulles, Newark, Chicago O'Hare and Atlanta international airports. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EGiven the virus can incubate for up to 21 days, it is questionable how much good taking temperatures will do. Screening would not have saved the life of Thomas Eric Duncan who did not show any symptoms for days after his arrival.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EMajority Want Flights Banned From Ebola Countries\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAn NBC survey shows \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/storyline\/ebola-virus-outbreak\/majority-americans-want-flights-banned-ebola-countries-survey-n221751\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EMajority of Americans Want Flights Banned From Ebola Countries\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EA majority of Americans support banning all flights to the United States from countries experiencing an Ebola outbreak, an exclusive NBC News online survey reveals.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe survey, which was conducted by SurveyMonkey and then weighted for age, race, sex, education and region to match U.S. Census data, found that 58 percent of Americans want a ban on incoming flights from West African countries hardest hit by the virus, such as Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone. Twenty percent of respondents opposed a travel ban, and the rest said they didn’t know. \u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ELa Guardia Airport Cleaners On Strike\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Financial Times reports \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/intl\/cms\/s\/0\/8aa844be-4fc6-11e4-908e-00144feab7de.html#axzz3FfNka0CP\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EAirline Cabin Cleaners Strike Over Ebola Fears\u003C\/a\u003E.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EUp to 200 airline cabin cleaners were expected to strike on Thursday over concerns that they might be exposed to Ebola as US authorities try to contain alarm over the virus.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ECabin cleaners who work for Air Serv walked off their shifts at La Guardia airport, according to union representatives, the day after the US said it would step up health screenings of air travellers in the coming days.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ELa Guardia does not receive international flights, but a union official said workers were worried about international travellers arriving at the airport via domestic flights.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EElboa Treatment\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Financial Times reports \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/intl\/cms\/s\/0\/0a5ebcea-4f9c-11e4-a0a4-00144feab7de.html#axzz3FfNka0CP\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EChinese Company Develops Ebola Treatment\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EOne of China’s leading generic pharmaceutical companies has purchased the rights to commercialise an experimental drug developed by the Chinese military for treating Ebola, though medical experts said the drug is still at an early stage of development.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe new drug is one of 15 or so experimental medicines that have shown some success against the Ebola virus, which has killed nearly 4,000 in west Africa, in laboratories tests with cell cultures and animals around the world. In addition, a dozen vaccines to prevent infection are being evaluated for safety and efficacy.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe World Health Organisation is working with international partners to fast-track the most promising treatments into clinical trials in the worst affected countries of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, though details of the trial procedures and the pharmaceuticals to be tested are not yet known. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“The news that Sihuan is commercialising jk-05 could speed up its timetable to be used in Africa but I still don’t think it could be available within six months,” said Yang Zhanqiu from the Institute of Medical Virology, School of Medicine, Wuhan University.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“China has no live Ebola virus to be researched on and it is forbidden to import live viruses to China for research. What the Chinese scientists are doing is based not on the live virus but on a cloned virus based on the gene sequence available from GenBank (a public database)”, he said.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EGeorge Baeder, an expert on the Chinese pharmaceuticals market, said: “Under typical circumstances, simply getting the drug into clinical trials and through registration – even if fast -racked by CFDA and even if it aims only at Chinese local approval – would normally take a minimum of five years.” \u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EHow Deadly is Ebola?\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWith fear and hype spreading, let's take a step back with a basic question: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/world\/africa\/ebola-explained-just-how-deadly-is-the-virus-where-will-the-outbreak-spread-to-next--and-how-can-it-be-stopped-9784682.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EJust how deadly is the virus, where will the outbreak spread to next – and how can it be stopped?\u003C\/a\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe world is facing an unprecedented outbreak of the Ebola virus, with more than 3,400 deaths so far and an estimated five new cases being reported every hour in Sierra Leone. Infections and potential cases have now been reported as far afield as the Australia, Spain and the US – which this week also suffered its first death.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBut as the Government resists calls for major British airports to follow the American lead and start screening incoming passengers for the disease, just what are the risks to Britain, West Africa and the rest of the world?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EJust how deadly is the Ebola virus?\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe strain of the Ebola virus involved in the current outbreak in West Africa has a mortality rate of 50 per cent – though rates for the outbreaks since 1976 have varied from 20 to 90 per cent.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESince then, we have developed strategies of barrier nursing, quarantine, protective equipment and contact tracing – and we know that these are enough to contain outbreaks if they are employed early enough.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThat’s because of the way Ebola is spread. Though highly contagious if it is given the chance to enter the body, it can only do so through the direct transferral of bodily fluids such as vomit, sweat or blood – making it much easier to contain than air-borne viruses like avian flu.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe reason the current outbreak has become so vast is simple – it was left unchecked for at least three months before being reported to the World Health Organisation.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe fact that it has been allowed to get a major foothold in West Africa – sprouting up in countries without the medical infrastructure to deal with it – is the reason it has become such a deadly prospect there.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EDr Edward Wright, a senior lecturer in Medical Microbiology at the University of Westminster who has been working to develop harmless versions of viruses like Ebola for the past 10 years, admits that “we have no experience of dealing with anything like this before”.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBut there is no risk of something similar happening in the UK, Europe, the US or anywhere where systems of isolation and treatment are more established and – now – alert to the danger.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EDeadliest Viruses\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-j60_imTur4E\/VDbzyvXdpSI\/AAAAAAAAa-c\/tOxS_aYRK6U\/s1600\/deadliest%2BViruses.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-j60_imTur4E\/VDbzyvXdpSI\/AAAAAAAAa-c\/tOxS_aYRK6U\/s400\/deadliest%2BViruses.png\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBut while we can be confident about stopping outbreaks outside West Africa, Dr Wright says the disease has likely got beyond the point where traditional strategies alone can stop the virus in the affected region – and that’s where vaccines and drugs come in.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EDr Wright is one of a number of scientists around the world working on producing a drug that can provide antibodies to help fight the disease, similar to the ZMapp treatment already being used in a limited number of cases.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EUltimately, the only way to stop Ebola cases emerging around the world is to tackle it at source in West Africa. Britain has just sent around 750 soldiers and officials to help bolster the infrastructure required – and Dr Wright says “feet on the ground” is probably the best way we can help tackle the disease right now.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EFears Overstated\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWhile the disease is serious, the above article  suggests risk in the US of a viral spread as happened in Africa is very unlikely.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EFocus on ZMapp\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFinally, please consider \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2014\/08\/04\/health\/experimental-ebola-serum\/\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EExperimental Drug Likely Saved Ebola Patients\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EOn Thursday, Dr. Kent Brantly thought he was going to die. It was the ninth day since the American missionary worker came down sick with Ebola in Liberia. His condition worsening by the minute, Brantly called his wife to say goodbye. Thankfully, the call was premature.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBrantly is back on his feet -- literally -- after receiving a last-ditch, highly experimental drug. [Nancy Writebol] Another American missionary with Ebola got the same.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe experimental drug, known as ZMapp, was developed by the biotech firm Mapp Biopharmaceutical Inc., which is based in San Diego. The patients were told that the treatment had never been tried before in a human being but had shown promise in small experiments with monkeys.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to company documents, four monkeys infected with Ebola survived after being given the therapy within 24 hours after infection. Two of four other monkeys that started therapy within 48 hours after infection also survived. One monkey that was not treated died within five days of exposure to the virus.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBrantly and Writebol were aware of the risk of taking a new, little-understood treatment and gave informed consent, according to two sources familiar with the care of the missionary workers. In the monkeys, the experimental serum had been given within 48 hours of infection. Brantly didn't receive it until he'd been sick for nine days.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Ebola virus causes viral hemorrhagic fever, which refers to a group of viruses that affect multiple organ systems in the body and are often accompanied by bleeding.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EEarly symptoms include sudden onset of fever, weakness, muscle pain, headaches and a sore throat. They later progress to vomiting, diarrhea, impaired kidney and liver function -- and sometimes internal and external bleeding.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBrantly asked that Writebol be given the first dose because he was younger and he thought he had a better chance of fighting it, and she agreed. However, as the first vial was still thawing, Brantly's condition took a sudden turn for the worse.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBrantly began to deteriorate and developed labored breathing. He told his doctors he thought he was dying, according to a source with firsthand knowledge of the situation.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EKnowing his dose was still frozen, Brantly asked if he could have Writebol's now-thawed medication. It was brought to his room and administered through an IV. Within an hour of receiving the medication, Brantly's condition dramatically improved. He began breathing easier; the rash over his trunk faded away. One of his doctors described the events as \"miraculous.\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBy the next morning, Brantly was able to take a shower on his own before getting on a specially designed Gulfstream air ambulance jet to be evacuated to the United States.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWritebol also received a vial of the medication. Her response was not as remarkable, according to sources familiar with the treatment. However, doctors on Sunday administered Writebol a second dose of the medication, which resulted in significant improvement.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EGood Enough For me\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe above results are good enough for me.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis is not a case where someone might take a drug and die from it. This is a case if nothing is done, the patient will die.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENonetheless, World Health Organization spokesman Gregory Hartl cautioned that health authorities \"cannot start using untested drugs in the middle of an outbreak, for various reasons.\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\"As doctors, trying an untested drug on patients is a very difficult choice since our first priority is to do no harm, and we would not be sure that the experimental treatment would do more harm than good.\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThat view, while arguably reasonable in some cases, seems preposterous  in the case at hand, especially given the success rate in monkeys. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EUltimately there must be human trials. What better tests can there  actually be than from willing participants who are on the deathbed? \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com \u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/8900118732113601018\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=8900118732113601018\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/8900118732113601018"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/8900118732113601018"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/panic-over-ebola-airline-strikes.html","title":"Panic Over Ebola: Airline Strikes, Banned Flights, Experimental Drugs  "}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-j60_imTur4E\/VDbzyvXdpSI\/AAAAAAAAa-c\/tOxS_aYRK6U\/s72-c\/deadliest%2BViruses.png","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-707550510961977511"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-09T13:17:00.003-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-09T20:02:12.856-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Police State USA: Civil Forfeiture Under Presumption of Guilt"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Where in the world can police confiscate your money and your property, not charge you with any crime, then tell you there is absolutely nothing you can do about it?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe answer, which you may not have known (but might have guessed from the title), is none other than the USA, where people mistakenly presume the law says innocent until proven guilty.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ELegalized Robbery\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn a report called \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/sf\/investigative\/2014\/09\/06\/stop-and-seize\/\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EStop and Seize\u003C\/a\u003E, the \u003Ci\u003EWashington Post\u003C\/i\u003E details how aggressive police take hundreds of millions of dollars from motorists not charged with crimes.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe \u003Ci\u003EWashington Post\u003C\/i\u003E noted there have been 61,998 cash seizures made on highways and elsewhere since 9\/11 without search warrants or indictments. Law enforcement agencies confiscated more than $2.5 billion. Half of the seizures were below $8,800. Here are a few examples.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003EA 55-year-old Chinese American restaurateur from Georgia was pulled over for minor speeding on Interstate 10 in Alabama and detained for nearly two hours. He was carrying $75,000 raised from relatives to buy a Chinese restaurant in Lake Charles, La. He got back his money 10 months later but only after spending thousands of dollars on a lawyer and losing out on the restaurant deal.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EA 40-year-old Hispanic carpenter from New Jersey was stopped on Interstate 95 in Virginia for having tinted windows. Police said he appeared nervous and consented to a search. They took $18,000 that he said was meant to buy a used car. He had to hire a lawyer to get back his money.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EMandrel Stuart, a 35-year-old African American owner of a small barbecue restaurant in Staunton, Va., was stunned when police took $17,550 from him during a stop in 2012 for a minor traffic infraction on Interstate 66 in Fairfax. He rejected a settlement with the government for half of his money and demanded a jury trial. He eventually got his money back but lost his business because he didn’t have the cash to pay his overhead.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EJohn Oliver on Civil Forfeiture\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe above examples are outrageous, but the following one detailed by \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=3kEpZWGgJks\u0026amp;list=UU3XTzVzaHQEd30rQbuvCtTQ\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EJohn Oliver\u003C\/a\u003E is far worse.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ciframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"325\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/3kEpZWGgJks?feature=player_detailpage\" width=\"450\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMatt Lee, from Lake Station, Michigan was driving to California with $2,400 in cash his dad lent him to start a new business. In a routine traffic ticket pullover, police asked Lee if he was carrying any money. Lee told the police he had $2,400 from his dad and the police promptly confiscated the money.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe police officer told Lee \"\u003Ci\u003EI have concluded my investigation and am keeping the money because you are traveling to California to buy drugs.\u003C\/i\u003E\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIt is incredible to believe someone would travel all the way from Michigan to California to buy a mere $2,400 in drugs. Yet, that was the conclusion of the officer.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIt is amazing, and scary, that this happens in the US.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBut it happens all the time. \"\u003Ci\u003EEveryday I do this. It's all I do for a living. It's drug interdiction and I get money\u003C\/i\u003E,\" said the Nevada police officer.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ELet's describe \u003Ci\u003ECivil Forfeiture\u003C\/i\u003E as it really is: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.lewrockwell.com\/2014\/05\/no_author\/cops-do-it-for-high-living\/\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EPolice State USA\u003C\/a\u003E in which police act as judge and jury, with a presumption of guilt, and steal what they want for their own benefit.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETraveling to the USA?\u0026nbsp; CBC news in Canada explicitly advises of the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/m\/touch\/world\/story\/1.2760736\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EAmerican shakedown: Police won't charge you, but they'll grab your money\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/707550510961977511\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=707550510961977511\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/707550510961977511"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/707550510961977511"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/police-state-usa-civil-forfeiture-under.html","title":"Police State USA: Civil Forfeiture Under Presumption of Guilt"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-2481513464518441339"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-08T20:55:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-08T21:04:31.066-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"RoboTrucks from Mercedes-Benz to Hit US Highways Within 10 Years; Mish Supply Chain Proposal"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Mercedes-Benz has announced “\u003Ci\u003EFuture Truck 2025\u003C\/i\u003E″, a self-driving truck that it expects to be on the streets by that date. I expect sooner and will give my reasons in just a bit.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFirst, please consider \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.wired.com\/2014\/10\/mercedes-making-self-driving-semi-change-future-shipping\/\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EMercedes Is Making a Self-Driving Semi to Change the Future of Shipping\u003C\/a\u003E by Wired.Com. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe latest truck concept from Mercedes-Benz doesn’t look like anything crazy. Its design is a bit unusual, and it’s loaded up with LEDs instead of headlights and cameras instead of side mirrors. But those modest tweaks to conventional design hide the fact that this is a serious bid to revolutionize the trucking industry. That’s because the “Future Truck 2025″ drives itself. And while it’s a prototype, Mercedes is serious about spending the next decade getting it—and us—ready for commercial use.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAutonomous driving is nothing new for trucks in agricultural and military applications, and should be available for passenger cars by 2020. But trucks that share our highways are tempting candidates for shedding their human component: Highway driving is easy for computers but dangerous for us, especially when big machines are involved. In 2012, according to NHTSA, 333,000 large trucks were in crashes in the US. Those accidents killed nearly 4,000 people, the vast majority of whom were riding in passenger vehicles. Regulators have trouble ensuring that drivers get adequate rest, and the trucking industry has fought back against regulation.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWith the idea that humans who drive less cause less trouble, Mercedes equipped the Future Truck 2025 with the “Highway Pilot” automated system. “It never gets tired. It’s always 100 percent and sharp. It’s never angry; it’s never distracted,” says Dr. Wolfgang Bernhard, the Daimler board member for trucks and buses. “So this is a much safer system.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor an autonomous system, highway driving is far easier than navigating cities. There are no cyclists or pedestrians to watch out for, speeds are steady, and turns are minimal. The “Highway Pilot” system combines several established technologies that will maintain lane position and following distance using cameras and radar. The sensors have been fitted to provide full coverage of the truck’s surroundings, and the assistance systems are linked.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe big addition vehicle-to-vehicle communication technology connecting the truck to other cars on the road, providing their exact locations and speeds. The truck doesn’t need this data to drive autonomously, but it’s helpful for things like moving aside for emergency vehicles or detecting stopped vehicles up ahead.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn the Future Truck, which Mercedes unveiled at a commercial vehicle conference last month, the driver becomes a “transport manager.” He gets the truck onto the highway and merges into traffic. At 50 mph, he’s prompted to activate the “Highway Pilot” and relax.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ETime Flies Faster Than Expected\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMercedes-Benz calls the project “Future Truck 2025″. I confidently predict much sooner.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003EWired\u003C\/i\u003E states \"\u003Ci\u003EAutonomous driving is nothing new for trucks in agricultural and  military applications, and should be available for passenger cars by  2020.\u003C\/i\u003E\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe primary benefit to autonomous cars is elimination of the taxi driver. Otherwise, who wants to pay the cost of all the radar, mirrors, etc.? \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI am sure such costs will come down over time because price of technology is the one thing the Fed and governments have the least influence over.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBut where's the payback?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe primary payback is cost elimination. And where is that? It's in delivery. Delivery of pizzas, transporting people, and transporting trucks.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWhen it comes to pizza, costs dictate that mini-drone helicopters will win out over\u0026nbsp; autonomous cars. For delivering people to destinations,\u0026nbsp; autonomous taxis are in order.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBut the biggest cost efficiency is in trucks.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETruck drivers make $40,000 to $80,000 a year. You can buy a lot of radar, cameras, and other driving technology for that price.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWired says the driver will get  the truck onto the highway , then at 50 mph, activate the \"\u003Ci\u003EHighway Pilot\u003C\/i\u003E\" and relax. I suggest not quite.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EMish Supply Chain Proposal \u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Col\u003E\u003Cli\u003EA paid driver will drive a loaded truck to a trucking hub near an expressway.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EThe autonomous robo-driver will drive the truck to a trucking hub exit spot on an expressway or major highway near the final destination point.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EA paid driver will navigate city traffic and take the truck to its final destination, unload the truck, then return the truck to the closest expressway trucking hub.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EThe autonomous robo-driver will drive the truck to its next pickup location on some other expressway where a paid driver takes over, driving the truck to its loading point.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EDrivers report to the hub in their own vehicle. They only get paid to drive truck between the hub and local destinations.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ol\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe advantages of the above scheme are obvious as well as bullet-proof. All the miles truck drivers drive on expressways will soon vanish. Truck hubs will form near every major city and every major roadway.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAt most, trucking jobs will consist of\u0026nbsp; driving trucks from hubs to final destinations and from final destinations back to the hubs.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EEventually, but it may take a lot more time, technology will be good enough to eliminate drivers altogether.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ERegardless, truck driver jobs, as we know them now, will soon vanish .\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor pizza delivery and bank services, please consider \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2013\/12\/what-will-your-bank-look-like-5-years.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EWhat Will Your Bank Look Like 5 Years From Now? How Will Pizzas Be Delivered? Do You Tip a Drone?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com \u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/2481513464518441339\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=2481513464518441339\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/2481513464518441339"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/2481513464518441339"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/robotrucks-from-mercedes-benz-to-hit-us.html","title":"RoboTrucks from Mercedes-Benz to Hit US Highways Within 10 Years; Mish Supply Chain Proposal"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-5640884072061980522"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-08T15:30:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-09T11:35:12.225-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"New Home Prices: Are they Really Up this Year? Homebuilder Freebies: Reduced Closing Costs, Free Pools; Housing Has Peaked This Cycle  "},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Thanks to ultra-low interest rates, massive all-cash purchases by private equity funds, and Fed-sponsored financial speculation, home prices are now back in bubble territory.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EYet, builders that had an easy time of things for a few years now offer \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/2014-10-07\/homebuilders-offer-freebies-as-booming-u-s-markets-cool.html\"\u003EFreebies as U.S. Housing Markets Cool\u003C\/a\u003E.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EJoseph Beben wasn’t in the market for a house until he heard about a year-old community in suburban Phoenix where 10 homebuilders are offering buyers incentives such as swimming pools, built-in barbecues and subsidized mortgage rates.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBeben, a 33-year-old general manager at Best Buy Co. (BBY), visited three of the sales offices flanking the main corridor of The Bridges at Gilbert, whose 17 subdivisions are among the about 200 locally that have opened since early last year. He settled on Woodside Homes’ community within The Bridges after the builder agreed to cover as much as $10,000 of his closing costs, and throw in another extra he liked.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“When I saw this deal, it looked like a good business decision,” said Beben, who will pay $332,000 for a 3,000-square-foot.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ENot a Business Decision at All\u003C\/b\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIt may, or may not turn out to be a good speculative move, but Beben is seriously misguided if he equates personal decisions as \"business decisions\" unless asset speculation is his business (which it clearly isn't).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EMajor City Sales Slowdown\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E“Phoenix is very slow, Sacramento is spotty,” said John Burns, a housing consultant based in Irvine, California. “The investors came in and pushed prices a little too high. And then FHA rocked the new-home market really hard.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“Phoenix is a cautionary tale about raising prices too aggressively and opening up communities too aggressively,” said Alex Barron, senior research analyst at Housing Research Center LLC in El Paso, Texas. “It’s a bad combination where affordability got out of control and the FHA limit went down. Homes are unaffordable now, and all of a sudden there’s a ton of supply.” \u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EFHA Reduced Limits\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EIn January, the federal government, which is reducing its share of the mortgage market to lure back private capital, cut FHA loan sizes in 652 high-cost U.S. counties. In Phoenix, the limit dropped to $271,050 -- about $24,000 below the median prices of a new home -- from the previous maximum of $346,250. The limit shrunk by 28 percent in the Las Vegas region, and 18 percent in the Sacramento area.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“We were having a nice robust recovery and then that happened,” said Buddy Satterfield, president of the Arizona division for Shea Homes, which has two communities in The Bridges and is opening one in Eastmark. “When you take the FHA limit down to $271,000, you hit us right in our sweet spot.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAfter jumping 32 percent in 2013, new-home sales in the Las Vegas area in the first eight months of this year fell 26 percent from a year earlier, he said. Smith said he recently spoke with a builder who lost a sale in the Las Vegas area to a competitor who cut the price by $17,000 and covered closing costs.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“It’s a big adjustment,” Smith said. “It’s hard for builders to cut their pace when they’ve been trying to rejuvenate their numbers over the past five years.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn Phoenix, the supply increased 26 percent. Existing-home prices in the area rose 4.4 percent in August from a year earlier, compared with an increase of 6.4 percent nationally, property-information provider CoreLogic Inc. (CLGX) reported today.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EHousing Has Peaked This Cycle\u003C\/b\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESupposedly, prices are up 4.4% from a year ago in Phoenix and over 6% nationally.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI have a question: Does that include reduced closing costs, free barbecues, and free $20,000 pools? \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EDownturns start with rising building inventory, competition, and freebies that do not immediately show up as price reductions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI think this rebound in new home prices has peaked nationally even if\u0026nbsp; prices purportedly show nominal price increases for a while.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn Beben's case, he got $10,000 off on closing costs and $22,000 towards a swimming pool according to Re\/Max Solutions agent Tim Ehlen.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThat's $32,000 off a home that would have sold last year for $364,000, a decline of 8.8%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETaking freebees into consideration, it's safe to conclude new home prices in Phoenix are not up 4.4% on the year as reported. I suggest prices are likely down somewhere between 5% and 10%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/5640884072061980522\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=5640884072061980522\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/5640884072061980522"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/5640884072061980522"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/new-home-prices-are-they-really-up-this.html","title":"New Home Prices: Are they Really Up this Year? Homebuilder Freebies: Reduced Closing Costs, Free Pools; Housing Has Peaked This Cycle  "}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-5437865540081741266"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-08T14:19:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-09T11:35:27.259-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"IMF Warns of Financial Crisis, Admits Low Interest Rates Spurred Asset Speculation Not Investment "},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The IMF finally had a \"duh\" moment in what should have been obvious years ago. The IMF finally realizes that almost zero borrowing costs has encouraged speculation rather than\u0026nbsp; a hoped-for pick up in investment.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENow, the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2014\/oct\/08\/imf-low-interest-rates-financial-crisis-threat-speculation\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EIMF warns period of ultra-low interest rates poses fresh financial crisis threat\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe Washington-based IMF said that more than half a decade in which official borrowing costs have been close to zero had encouraged speculation rather than the hoped-for pick up in investment.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn its half-yearly global financial stability report, it said the risks to stability no longer came from the traditional banks but from the so-called shadow banking system – institutions such as hedge funds, money market funds and investment banks that do not take deposits from the public.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EJosé Viñals, the IMF’s financial counsellor, said: “Policymakers are facing a new global imbalance: not enough economic risk-taking in support of growth, but increasing excesses in financial risk-taking posing stability challenges.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EViñals said the IMF had analysed 300 large banks in advanced economies, making up the bulk of their banking system. It found that institutions representing almost 40% of total assets lacked the financial muscle to supply adequate credit in support of the recovery. In the eurozone, this proportion rose to about 70%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“And risks are shifting to the shadow banking system in the form of rising market and liquidity risks,” Viñals said. “If left unaddressed, these risks could compromise global financial stability.”\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EIMF Wants More Regulation\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAmusingly, the IMF concludes \"The best way to safeguard financial stability and improve the balance between economic and financial risk taking is to put in place policies that enhance the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy – thus promoting economic risk taking – and address financial excesses through well-designed macroprudential measures.\" \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe IMF wants tougher supervision of banks, requirements on them to hold more capital, and curbs on lending to specific sectors such as housing.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ECuriously, low interest rates were the problem but the solution is low interest rates and more macro controls including \"policies that enhance the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy – thus promoting economic risk taking\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIt's a financial axiom that central banks can make money available and set the rates, but they cannot dictate were it goes. Yet, the IMF just now seems to be figuring that out.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAs for central bank sponsored \"risk taking\", haven't we seen enough already?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EWhere the Money Went\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Col\u003E\u003Cli\u003EJunk bond speculation\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EStock market speculation\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EStock market buybacks at ludicrous prices\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003ERobots in lieu of hiring\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EFree profit for banks thanks to interest on \"excess reserves\" \u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EPrivate equity firms buying up houses\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EIn Europe, banks loaded up on their own allegedly risk-free bonds\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EIn China, property bubbles and profitless SOEs\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ol\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EWhere the Money Didn't Go\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Col\u003E\u003Cli\u003EHigher wages\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EInfrastructure\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EInvestment\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ol\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EWhat Now?\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENot only was the IMF late in figuring out central banks did little but  encourage asset speculation, it remains clueless in regards to what to  do about it.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ECuriously, the IMF argues for raising the VAT in Europe which will take money out of the hands of people who will spend it. The IMF also has concerns about price deflation when the whole world could use lower prices.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe IMF still has not figured out it is asset deflation and speculative loans made on assets that is the problem, not price deflation on consumer goods.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETo get money to flow where it perceives best, the IMF wants more regulation over what projects banks can or cannot lend to.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWant efficient allocation of capital? Then how about trying a free market in goods and services with a free market in interest rates as well?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EInstead, the IMF proposes more central intervention as the solution. The IMF's proposal is economic stupidity at its finest.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/5437865540081741266\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=5437865540081741266\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/5437865540081741266"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/5437865540081741266"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/imf-admits-low-interest-rates-spurred.html","title":"IMF Warns of Financial Crisis, Admits Low Interest Rates Spurred Asset Speculation Not Investment "}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-348766526085918379"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-07T21:10:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-07T21:10:10.123-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Early Elections in Greece Increasingly Likely, So Is Grexit; Promises, Promises"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Talk is in the air, but it's not to the liking of eurozone Nannycrats. Please consider \u003Ca target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/blogs.barrons.com\/emergingmarketsdaily\/2014\/10\/07\/idiosyncratic-risk-looms-for-greek-assets-citi-says\/\"\u003EIdiosyncratic Risk Looms For Greek Assets, Citi Says\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cblockquote\u003ECiti Research said in a note today that: “Possible deadlock in the early-2015 vote among MPs to choose the next Greek President could trigger early national parliamentary elections in Greece in spring 2015, in our view, with a distinct possibility that the next government will be led by the opposition, anti-bailout party Syriza.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESyriza has gained seats in the European Parliament, with one more than the ruling New Democracy party of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras. Syriza’s leader, Alexis Tsipras, has campaigned against budget cuts tied to Greece’s 240 billion euro ($303 billion) bailout from the International Monetary fund and Euro area. Tsipras and Syriza have been calling for immediate national elections since May.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ESyriza’s Leader Could Win the Next Election\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe \u003Ci\u003EEconomist\u003C\/i\u003E spells things out a bit more clearly in \u003Ca target=\"_blank\"  href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/news\/europe\/21621878-syrizas-leader-could-win-next-election-company-he-keeps\"\u003ESyriza’s Leader Could Win the Next Election\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cblockquote \u003ETalk of an early general election is in the air: New Democracy and the PanHellenic Socialist Movement need 180 votes in parliament next February to choose a new president to replace the incumbent, Karolos Papoulias, who is retiring from politics. With only 154 lawmakers between them, it will be a struggle to round up the extra votes from a pool of fractious independents and moderate left-wingers. If they fail, an early general election will be held. Mr Tsipras is in pole position to win.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThree recent opinion polls showed Syriza’s lead over New Democracy widening to up to five percentage points, which, if replicated at a general election, would leave Syriza just ten seats short of a parliamentary majority. One of the latest polls, published on September 27th, shocked the government: it gave Syriza a lead of 11 percentage points over New Democracy.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMr Tsipras is no longer pledging to rip up Greece’s bail-out agreement, yet many are still suspicious of his new €11 billion ($14 billion) tax-and-spend economic programme. It calls, among other things, for restoring the minimum monthly salary to €750 (about 60% higher than the average salary now being paid by cash-strapped private employers), cracking down on tax evasion, creating 300,000 new jobs and restoring Christmas bonuses for pensioners. “It’s much too good to be true,” sighed Koula Peristeri, an unemployed factory worker who nonetheless supports Syriza.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAntonis Samaras, the centre-right prime minister, has riposted with his own promises. Next year’s budget will include tax breaks for hard-pressed households, including cuts in levies on property and heating fuel. There is even talk of reducing the corporate tax rate from 26% to 20%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMr Samaras would like to go further but he is constrained by the “troika” of bail-out monitors from the EU, the European Central Bank and IMF.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPromises Cannot Be Met\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBoth parties are making promises they cannot keep. There is no realistic way Samaras can keep his promises. If he could, he would have already. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd there is no realistic way for Tsipras to raise salaries by 60%. But that is precisely what people want to believe.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPeople Have Had Enough\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe important factor is people have had enough, and when they have, the tendency is to vote out politicians who did not keep promises for the next set of leaders who also are 100% guaranteed to break promises.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThus, if there is an early election, and that seems increasingly likely, Tsipras will win.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIf so, please bear in mind that \u003Ca target=\"_blank\"  href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Elections_in_Greece\"\u003EGreek Elections Rules\u003C\/a\u003E are such that the overall winner, even by a slight plurality, gets an extra 50 seats in parliament. \u003Ci\u003EThe law helps the party or coalition that wins a plurality to achieve an absolute majority (151 out of 300 parliamentary seats)\u003C\/i\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThat is how Samaras came to rule, and it will be how Tsipras will come to rule unless early elections do not happen.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPrimary Account Surplus\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere are questions over accounting, but \u003Ca target=\"_blank\"  href=\"http:\/\/greece.greekreporter.com\/2014\/07\/07\/greek-budget-records-1-2b-euro-primary-surplus-in-jan-may%E2%80%8F\/\"\u003EGreek Budget Records 1.2B Euro Primary Surplus in Jan-May\u003C\/a\u003E‏.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EA primary surplus is quite important. It means that Greece no longer needs external funding to pay its bills. Excluding the debt repayment program, Greece's primary surplus totaled 1.6 billion euros.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIf accurate, and sustainable, Greece is actually in a position to tell the Troika \"Go to Hell\" declaring all debt repayment null and void.\u0026nbsp; Yet to do that, Greece would have to abandon the euro and put up with God knows what in sanction retaliations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIf Tsipras chooses that path, there is no way for salaries to rise 60% with the account surplus intact.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EWhich Promises will Tsipras Keep? \u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Col\u003E\u003Cli\u003EKeep Greece on the Euro.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003ERaise Pay by 60%.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003ENone of the Above.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ol\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI vote for door number 3. Time will tell. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMeanwhile, I have a musical tribute for the upcoming election.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPromises, Promises\u003C\/b\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ciframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"325\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/ujhCIZnLKOY?feature=player_detailpage\" width=\"450\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ELink if video does not play: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ujhCIZnLKOY\"\u003EDionne Warwick - Promises, Promises\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/348766526085918379\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=348766526085918379\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/348766526085918379"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/348766526085918379"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/early-elections-in-greece-increasingly.html","title":"Early Elections in Greece Increasingly Likely, So Is Grexit; Promises, Promises"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11324386.post-2608523593716656938"},"published":{"$t":"2014-10-07T14:21:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2014-10-07T20:01:30.098-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"ISIS Waves Black Flags of Victory Over Kobani; US Strategy in Ruins; Where Does ISIS Get Funding?"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Those looking for proof that massive US bombing missions in Syria cannot stop ISIS now have it. Highlighting the complete failure of US containment policy, \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/intl\/cms\/s\/0\/6c741c2a-4e1d-11e4-adfe-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=intl#axzz3FO16vVYq\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EIsis Set to Take Syrian Town of Kobani\u003C\/a\u003E.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EWarplanes dropped huge payloads on their positions and determined, battle-hardened Kurdish fighters fiercely stood their ground. But the fighters of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isis) still managed to win territory and hoist their signature black flag atop buildings and hills in the battle for the town of Kobani.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe city, which once had a population of 200,000 and was surrounded by villages inhabited by perhaps the same number, was all but deserted by Tuesday morning, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“There’s no co-ordination between the US and the Kurdish forces on the ground. The US air strikes are not helping that much,” he [Wladimir Van Wilgenburg, an analyst at the Jamestown Foundation think-tank, based in Iraqi Kurdistan] said.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPolitical disputes that plague the anti-Isis coalition have hampered the war effort in Kobani. The US listing of Turkey’s Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) as a terrorist organisation has complicated communications between forces. Syrian Kurds affiliated with the PKK have pleaded with Turkey to allow them to move their military vehicles from their Rojava enclave through southern Turkey to Kobani but have been rebuffed.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“For us, the PKK is the same as Isil (Isis). It is wrong to consider them as different from each other,” Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said this week.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EKurds Fighting ISIS Same as ISIS\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESupposedly, Kurds fighting ISIS are the same as ISIS. Meanwhile the US trains moderates that are ISIS or will hand their weapons over to ISIS. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMoreover, instead of bombing ISIS tanks or ISIS-held refineries the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/09\/us-bombed-wrong-refineries-in-syria.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EUS Bombed the Wrong Syrian Refineries\u003C\/a\u003E, owned by civilians.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EUS Strategy in Ruins\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003EThe Independent\u003C\/i\u003E reports \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/world\/middle-east\/isis-on-the-verge-of-victory-in-kobani-as-us-strategy-lies-in-ruins-jihadists-close-to-taking-city-near-turkish-border-9778532.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EIsis on Verge of Victory in Kobani as US Strategy Lies in Ruins\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EKurdish militiamen are battling to stop Isis capturing Kobani, but a Kurdish spokesman in the city was quoted as saying that the town “will certainly fall soon”. Fighting has reached the eastern outskirts of Kobani where Isis fighters raised their black flag over one building at the entrance to the town.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe battle for Kobani has united Kurds across the region who see it as their version of the battle of Thermopylae, with their heroic soldiers fighting to the end against Isis forces superior in numbers and armed with heavier weapons.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIsis is using tanks and artillery it seized from the Iraqi and Syrian armies when it overran their bases during the summer.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EAre Tanks Invisible?\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EApparently tanks and artillery are invisible to US planes. No matter, bombing the wrong refineries is much easier.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ETurkey Willing to Sacrifice Kurds\u003C\/b\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMoving right along, the politics of this war gets messier and messier.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EPresident Bashar al-Assad withdrew his forces from these enclaves earlier in the war, leaving them in the hands of the Democratic Unity Party (PYD) whose militia is the YPG. Both are effectively the Syrian branch of the PKK that has been fighting for Kurdish self-rule in Turkey since 1984.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe long-running peace process between the PKK\u0026nbsp; and the Turkish government could be one casualty of\u0026nbsp; the fall of Kobani. Turkish forces have done nothing to help the Syrian Kurds hold the town and there is no sign of powerful Turkish military forces along the border intervening.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe leader of the PYD, Salih Muslim, is reported to have met officials from Turkish military intelligence to plead for aid but was told this would only be available if the Syrian Kurds abandoned their claim for self-determination, gave up their self-governing cantons, and agreed to a Turkish buffer zone inside Syria. Mr Muslim turned down the demands and returned to Kobani.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EVice President Biden Complains\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E[US Vice-President Joe Biden] told a meeting at Harvard University’s Institute of Politics on 2 October that the Turks, Saudis and UAE “poured hundreds of millions of dollars and tens of thousands of tons of weapons against anyone who would fight Assad, except that the people who were being supplied were al-Nusra and al-Qaeda and the extremist element of jihadis coming from other parts of the world.”\u003C\/blockquote\u003EHmm. Didn't the US do the same?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EWhere Does Isis Get Its Money?\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ELet's wrap up the discussion with a look at ISIS funding. Initially ISIS received money from our alleged ally Saudi Arabia as well as Sunni religious groups. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESyrian president Assad receives aid from Iran. Assad and Iran are both enemies although both want to stop ISIS. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ECurrently, ISIS gets most of its money from refined oil that it controls.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe Oil Connection \u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn an interesting video-embedded article, The Guardian answers the question \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/video\/2014\/sep\/26\/where-do-isis-get-their-money-video\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EWhere Does Isis Get Its Money?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EIslamic State (Isis) is now the wealthiest militant group in the world, with a reported net worth of $2bn (£1.2bn). Where is all the cash coming from? The group has built up a fortune through a combination of oil resources and wheat production to hostage taking and extortion. Unless the international coalition can cut the flow of Isis funding, it is likely to remain a severe threat\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EWho's Buying ISIS Oil?\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003EOilPrice\u003C\/i\u003E asks \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/oilprice.com\/Energy\/Crude-Oil\/Who-Is-Buying-The-Islamic-States-Illegal-Oil.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EWho Is Buying The Islamic State’s Illegal Oil?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EIn June 2014, computer files captured from a courier for the Islamic State shortly after the fall of Mosul revealed that the group had assets of $875 million, largely gained in the sacking and looting of Mosul and its central bank.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe size of the group’s bank account has now risen to an estimated $2 billion dollars, thanks in part to revenues from ransom paid for kidnapped foreigners and more pillaging. However, oil remains the group’s primary source of income.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EReports show that IS-controlled fields in Iraq produce between 25,000 and 40,000 barrels of oil per day, at an estimated value of approximately $1.2 million, before being smuggled out to Iran, Kurdistan, Turkey and Syria. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn an interview with CNN, Luay al-Khatteeb, the director of the Iraq Energy Institute, explained that “IS smuggles the crude oil and trades it for cash and refined products, at a refined price,” thanks to its own refineries in Syria.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EInane US Sanction Policy\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EA \u003Ci\u003ECNN\u003C\/i\u003E Video explains \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2014\/08\/18\/business\/al-khatteeb-isis-oil-iraq\/\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EHow Iraq's black market in oil funds ISIS\u003C\/a\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E“The crude is transported by tankers to Jordan via Anbar province, to Iran via Kurdistan, to Turkey via Mosul, to Syria's local market and to the Kurdistan region of Iraq, where most of it gets refined locally,” Khatteeb explained. “Turkey has turned a blind eye to this and may continue to do so until they come under pressure from the West to close down oil black markets in the country's south.” \u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ESynopsis\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003ETurkey turns a blind eye to ISIS-oil as well as Kurds fighting ISIS.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EThe US will not cooperate with Assad to fight ISIS because Assad is our enemy.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EThe \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/09\/us-bombed-wrong-refineries-in-syria.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EUS Bombs the Wrong Refineries\u003C\/a\u003E but not ISIS tanks.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EBiden complains Turkey and Saudi Arabia backed the wrong moderates although the US also backed the wrong moderates.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003ETo fight ISIS, US supports Iranian Revolutionary Guard and other terrorist groups (see \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/09\/strange-bedfellows-to-fight-isis-us-now.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EStrange Bedfellows\u003C\/a\u003E) \u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003EThe US sponsored crippling sanctions on Iran, and inane sanctions on Russia.\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003ESomehow there has been no discussion of sanctions on ISIS assets or day-to-day production of ISIS-controlled oil, from which ISIS profits $2 million a day. One has to wonder, are US oil interests getting a piece of that pie?\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EUS foreign policy is well beyond FUBAR.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\u003Cdiv class=\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003EMike \"Mish\" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.\nVisit http:\/\/www.sitkapacific.com\/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/feeds\/2608523593716656938\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=11324386\u0026postID=2608523593716656938\u0026isPopup=true","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/2608523593716656938"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/11324386\/posts\/default\/2608523593716656938"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com\/2014\/10\/isis-waves-black-flags-of-victory-over.html","title":"ISIS Waves Black Flags of Victory Over Kobani; US Strategy in Ruins; Where Does ISIS Get Funding?"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mike Mish Shedlock"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/104670320007060795416"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-45OLgWWzLF0\/AAAAAAAAAAI\/AAAAAAAAUDA\/pLIKuCo7eh0\/s512-c\/photo.jpg"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});